Narrative-Price State Map Canonical states · 10D excess return vs QQQ · qualifying transitions (n≥15 · |excess|≥1.0pp) TOPICSPACE ← narrative leads price price leads narrative → Narrative strengthens ahead of price +2.48pp · n=45 Narrative still ahead of price +1.39pp · n=40 Follow-through to confirmation +2.15pp · n=16 Narrative losing urgency −1.06pp · n=18 Bearish giving way to rejection +1.04pp · n=89 NARRATIVE LEADS · STRONG Story not being paid 10D +2.0pp · n=543 NARRATIVE LEADS · EARLY Price lagging narrative 10D +0.6pp · n=447 CONFIRMATION Price confirming narrative 10D +0.5pp · n=71 PRICE-LED Price ahead of story 10D −0.7pp · n=775 NO NARRATIVE EDGE Moving with tape 10D −1.4pp · n=324 BEARISH CONFIRM Selloff confirming narrative bearish narrative and price aligned PRICE HOLDS UP Rejecting negative narrative price holds despite bearish story SETUP TYPES UNPAID NARRATIVE Narrative leading price +1.1pp EARLY CONFIRMATION Strongest at entry · freshness-sensitive +1.65pp CROWDED REPRICING Stretched move · weaker follow-through −2.0pp REJECTED DOWNSIDE Constructive · semis & non-fragile sectors +3.6pp FRAGILE SQUEEZE Software · fintech · EV-auto · fragile sectors −3.3pp NARRATIVE ROLLOVER Deterioration · weakening continuation −3.5pp 10D excess vs QQQ from state entry Setup types translate state alignment into practical interpretations States describe narrative-price alignment · setup types translate these into practical interpretations KEY TAKEAWAYS 01 Narrative-leading states outperformed price-led states in this sample. 02 Early confirmation is freshness-sensitive — lingering labels lose their edge. 03 Transitions often carry more signal than static state presence alone. 04 Rejected downside splits by sector: constructive in semis, fragile in software/fintech. 05 The same state does not mean the same thing everywhere — sector context matters. Improving transition Deteriorating transition All excess returns are vs QQQ over the 10 trading days following state entry.