How topicspace reads the market
Topicspace uses a small set of recurring terms to describe how narratives and price interact. The goal is not to create jargon for its own sake. It is to make fast-moving situations easier to describe consistently: which stories are building, which ones price is validating, which ones are already stretched, and what changed recently.
This glossary explains the terms that appear most often across the Board, Alerts, Structures, Report, and actor pages.
States describe the current relationship between a company's narrative activity and its price behavior. They are read daily from the pipeline — not forecast.
The narrative is strong, but price is not yet following.
This can point to a constructive setup that has not been validated yet. The question is whether price eventually follows the narrative, or the narrative fades. Watching which way it resolves is where the signal comes from.
The story is building faster than price is moving.
This often signals a name worth watching for follow-through, especially if the condition persists. The longer this holds, the more interesting the eventual move — either price catches up or the narrative collapses.
Narrative and price are aligning. The market is starting to validate the story.
This is the cleanest state, but worth watching for NDS compression — when the gap between narrative and price closes and confirmation starts to fade, that often precedes a reversal.
Price has moved faster than the current narrative support justifies.
The move may be stretched or vulnerable if the story does not catch up. Extension risk increases the further price gets from narrative. Historically, moves in this state have been more fragile than confirmed moves.
Price is moving, but without a strong narrative edge.
The move may be driven more by broad market behavior than by a company-specific story. Not useful for narrative-based positioning — the actor's price action is macro-driven.
The bearish story and downside price action are aligning.
The market is validating the negative case. This state tends to persist until the narrative changes — unlike a technical pullback, the underlying story is actively bearish.
A bearish story is active, but price is not validating it.
The market may be absorbing or dismissing the bear case. Whether this holds depends on sector history and narrative trajectory — a sustained rejection often precedes a narrative shift, but fragile squeezes also resolve back down.
Setups are pattern labels that combine the current state with historical context. Each has a track record in the dataset.
A constructive setup where narrative is ahead of price.
The story may still be early, but it has not yet been confirmed by price. When narrative holds and price eventually follows, this is often the highest-conviction entry point the system identifies.
Price is beginning to follow the story.
The setup can improve into full confirmation, but it tends to work best when fresh. Signal is strongest at entry — watch for NDS moving toward zero and relative return turning positive.
Price has already moved hard before the story is fully supported.
Timing is weaker and the move may be stretched. Extended moves in this state have historically been fragile — without narrative catching up, the odds of continuation are lower.
A bearish narrative is present, but price is holding up.
The setup can be constructive, especially in stronger sectors. The key question is whether the rejection is durable or merely delayed.
A bearish story is not being paid, but the setup lacks a strong historical base.
The rejection may be weak-backed rather than durable. In software, infrastructure, fintech, and EV/auto, this setup has historically underperformed. Watch narrative direction as the tell.
The story is weakening rather than strengthening.
The setup may be deteriorating even if the thesis still sounds attractive. A selloff aligning with narrative direction is not a temporary dip — the underlying story supports the decline.
Alert labels and workflow terms describe what kind of change a trigger represents — not just that something fired, but what it means.
A setup condition that has lasted long enough to matter, even without a fresh state change.
Persistence can be a signal in itself. The longer a setup holds without resolution, the more significant the eventual move tends to be.
A condition where the narrative-price relationship remains in conflict without resolution.
The eventual break in either direction can be high-signal. These often precede either bearish resolution (price follows narrative down) or a sharp reversal. Watching which triggers fire next is the tell.
An alert direction showing that a name is moving into a more constructive condition.
These are among the most actionable alerts — something the system was watching for actually happened. Confirmation arrived, a gap is closing, or price is beginning to follow.
An alert direction showing that a name or structure is weakening.
Deteriorating alerts often precede state transitions to worse setups. Early warning that a thesis is losing support — the current state may be becoming less trustworthy.
An alert that is live in the current daily batch.
It reflects a condition that deserves attention now. Active alerts are prioritized at the top of the alert feed.
An alert from earlier in the recent window that is no longer part of today's live batch.
It provides context and recent history. Archived alerts are visible in the alert feed within the 7-day lookback window.
Structures describe broader narrative patterns that link actors and stories. They help show whether activity is isolated or part of something larger.
A broader narrative formation involving one or more related actors and stories.
It helps show whether activity is isolated or part of something larger. A structure with 4–5 actors all in the same state is more significant than a single actor.
A structure or grouping that is mostly concentrated in one name.
It suggests the story has not broadened into a wider field pattern. Useful for knowing whether a setup is idiosyncratic or systemic.
A structure that is starting to show coherence but is not fully established.
The story may be forming without being fully validated yet. These structures are worth watching for follow-through.
A structure with active related narratives but no clean directional resolution.
There is activity, but not yet clear confirmation. Unresolved structures can break in either direction — watching for what resolves them is the signal.
A short interpretation of how a name recently moved between states.
Movement between states often carries more signal than static labels alone. Some transitions have consistently strong or weak track records — knowing the historical base rate changes how you should read a transition.
A longer-running narrative path that groups related developments over time.
It helps distinguish a recurring structure from a one-off burst of attention. Lineage provides the narrative continuity that makes context meaningful.
Numbers used across actor pages and the board. Each measures something specific about the narrative-price relationship.
Measures the gap between narrative strength and price behavior.
Large positive or negative gaps often define the most interesting setups. High NDS without price confirmation is the core tension the system tracks — that tension has historically resolved with a price move, eventually.
The difference between how strong the story is and how price is behaving.
It helps show whether the market is validating, ignoring, or front-running the narrative. The narrative gap is the underlying tension the whole system is built around.
Price performance compared with a benchmark over a recent window.
It helps show whether a name is actually being paid relative to the market. Used alongside NDS and narrative count to assess whether price is following or diverging from the narrative.
A measure of how much narrative attention is building around a story.
Pressure can show whether a story is strengthening, fading, or still unresolved. High pressure with no price move is the core setup the board is built to surface.
How much of the current activity is coming from recent events.
It helps distinguish active narratives from stale ones. A high-recency score means the story is actively developing — not just legacy noise from older events.
If you are new to topicspace, the fastest terms to learn are:
Those eight terms will get you through most of the site.