ADBEdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-11story not being paid
ADBE: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 7d in prior
After 7d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Earnings pressure vs AI creative tools story
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
AMZNdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-11story not being paid
AMZN: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 4d in prior
After 4d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Custom silicon (Trainium) + Globalstar buyout
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
SNOWdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-11negative confirmation
SNOW: Bearish thesis validated — disagreement resolved to the downside
disagreement→negative confirmation· 4d in prior
After 4d of DISAGREEMENT, price broke down. Negative narrative confirmed: Data cloud growth narrative stalling
watchNEG_CONFIRMATION held ≥3d is structural bearish. Watch for potential T7 reversal.
historyHistorical SNB→MWT: -1.06pp avg, n=18
METAdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-09story not being paid
META: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 2d in prior
After 2d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: AI chips and data center build-out
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
MSFTdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-09story not being paid
MSFT: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 2d in prior
After 2d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Copilot + OpenAI bet gaining traction
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
CRWVdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-09negative confirmation
CRWV: Bearish thesis validated — disagreement resolved to the downside
disagreement→negative confirmation· 5d in prior
After 5d of DISAGREEMENT, price broke down. Negative narrative confirmed: CoreWeave cloud IPO hype fading
watchNEG_CONFIRMATION held ≥3d is structural bearish. Watch for potential T7 reversal.
historyHistorical SNB→MWT: -1.06pp avg, n=18
CRWVdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-08negative confirmation
CRWV: Bearish thesis validated — disagreement resolved to the downside
disagreement→negative confirmation· 4d in prior
After 4d of DISAGREEMENT, price broke down. Negative narrative confirmed: CoreWeave cloud IPO hype fading
watchNEG_CONFIRMATION held ≥3d is structural bearish. Watch for potential T7 reversal.
historyHistorical SNB→MWT: -1.06pp avg, n=18
ANETdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-07story not being paid
ANET: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 3d in prior
After 3d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: AI networking infrastructure demand
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
2026-05-11story not being paid
VST: 5d divergence — extended narrative-price tension building
Narrative has been ahead of price for 5 consecutive days. Story: Gas and nuclear power generation serving AI data center demand
watchGap snap risk elevating. Next rel print above +1.5% may trigger T2 confirmation.
historyPLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg gap expansion, n=45
2026-05-10story not being paid
NFLX: 5d divergence — extended narrative-price tension building
Narrative has been ahead of price for 5 consecutive days. Story: Ad-supported tier growth; AI personalization and live sports expansion
watchGap snap risk elevating. Next rel print above +1.5% may trigger T2 confirmation.
historyPLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg gap expansion, n=45
DDOGimprovinghightransition 2026-05-11price confirming narrative
DDOG: Narrative confirmed — price now validating the thesis
early follow-through→price confirming narrative· 2d in prior
After 2d in EARLY, price crossed the confirmation threshold. The narrative is now being paid: AI-native observability; enterprise monitoring adoption in AI stacks
watchMonitor for a 3-day hold. Transitions that revert within 2d carry no historical edge.
historyHistorical PLN→PCN: +2.15pp avg, n=16
DELLimprovinghightransition 2026-05-10price confirming narrative
DELL: Narrative confirmed — price now validating the thesis
early follow-through→price confirming narrative· 3d in prior
After 3d in EARLY, price crossed the confirmation threshold. The narrative is now being paid: AI server demand vs margin pressure
watchMonitor for a 3-day hold. Transitions that revert within 2d carry no historical edge.
historyHistorical PLN→PCN: +2.15pp avg, n=16
MRVLimprovinghightransition 2026-05-09price lagging narrative
MRVL: Divergence compressing — watch for confirmation or narrative fade
story not being paid→price lagging narrative· 2d in prior
After 2d of divergence, the gap is compressing. Resolves to confirmation or narrative collapse: AI networking revenue accelerating
watchNDS direction is the tell. Rising → confirmation path. Falling → narrative fading.
historyHistorical SNB→PLN: +1.39pp avg, n=40
AVGOimprovinghightransition 2026-05-09price lagging narrative
AVGO: Divergence compressing — watch for confirmation or narrative fade
story not being paid→price lagging narrative· 2d in prior
After 2d of divergence, the gap is compressing. Resolves to confirmation or narrative collapse: Custom silicon; insider activity cooling
watchNDS direction is the tell. Rising → confirmation path. Falling → narrative fading.
historyHistorical SNB→PLN: +1.39pp avg, n=40
METAimprovinghightransition 2026-05-07price lagging narrative
META: Divergence compressing — watch for confirmation or narrative fade
story not being paid→price lagging narrative· 3d in prior
After 3d of divergence, the gap is compressing. Resolves to confirmation or narrative collapse: AI chips and data center build-out
watchNDS direction is the tell. Rising → confirmation path. Falling → narrative fading.
historyHistorical SNB→PLN: +1.39pp avg, n=40
AMDimprovinghightransition 2026-05-07price confirming narrative
AMD: Narrative confirmed — price now validating the thesis
early follow-through→price confirming narrative· 3d in prior
After 3d in EARLY, price crossed the confirmation threshold. The narrative is now being paid: AI GPU competition narrative vs NVDA
watchMonitor for a 3-day hold. Transitions that revert within 2d carry no historical edge.
historyHistorical PLN→PCN: +2.15pp avg, n=16
SNOWimprovinghightransition 2026-05-07disagreement
SNOW: Bearish thesis challenged — price recovering against negative narrative
negative confirmation→disagreement· 10d in prior
After 10d of NEG_CONFIRMATION, price began recovering. Bears may be losing grip: Data cloud growth narrative stalling
watchIf narr stays high (negative) and price holds, this may be a short-squeeze dynamic.
2026-05-10price confirming narrative
SMCI: Confirmation weakening — NDS compressing toward zero
In CONFIRMED for 4d but NDS=-89 — gap closing. Thesis: AI server demand; VAST Data partnership
watchIf rel drops below 3.0 while in CONFIRMED, T5 transition likely within 2 days.
2026-05-09negative confirmation
TSM: Negative confirmation deepening — bearish structure 7d old
NEG_CONFIRMATION held 7d with narr=58. Bearish narrative: Advanced node demand; geopolitical risk
watchWatch for T7 price recovery. NEG_CONFIRMATION ≥7d rarely reverses quickly.
historySNB→MWT: −1.06pp avg, n=18
AMDdeterioratingtransition 2026-05-09early follow-through
AMD: Confirmation broke — price losing alignment with narrative
price confirming narrative→early follow-through· 2d in prior
After 2d in CONFIRMED, the state collapsed back to EARLY. Thesis challenged: AI GPU competition narrative vs NVDA
watchIf narr holds ≥55 the thesis may be repricing, not dying. If narr drops <50, treat as breakdown.
INTC: 10d disagreement — bull/bear collision unresolved
Active narrative-price conflict for 10d, no resolution yet. Story: Qualcomm acquisition chatter; foundry pivot
watchT6 (bearish resolution) or T7 (bearish reversal) will be high-signal when it fires.
2026-05-09price lagging narrative
GOOGL: High-NDS unconfirmed — 36pt gap persisting 3d
NDS=36 for 3d in REPRICING without confirmation. Story: AI search competition + Waymo
watchIf rel crosses +1.5% next print, T1/T9 confirmation is imminent.
historyPLN→PCN setup: +2.15pp avg when confirmed, n=16
2026-05-09price lagging narrative
AMZN: High-NDS unconfirmed — 32pt gap persisting 3d
NDS=32 for 3d in REPRICING without confirmation. Story: Custom silicon (Trainium) + Globalstar buyout
watchIf rel crosses +1.5% next print, T1/T9 confirmation is imminent.
historyPLN→PCN setup: +2.15pp avg when confirmed, n=16
2026-05-09price lagging narrative
MP: High-NDS unconfirmed — 32pt gap persisting 3d
NDS=32 for 3d in REPRICING without confirmation. Story: Rare earth mining; China tariff tailwind and supply chain angle
watchIf rel crosses +1.5% next print, T1/T9 confirmation is imminent.
historyPLN→PCN setup: +2.15pp avg when confirmed, n=16
2026-05-09early follow-through
NVDA: High-NDS unconfirmed — 30pt gap persisting 3d
NDS=30 for 3d in EARLY without confirmation. Story: AI infrastructure buildout; China market share erosion
watchIf rel crosses +1.5% next print, T1/T9 confirmation is imminent.
historyPLN→PCN setup: +2.15pp avg when confirmed, n=16
2026-05-08price confirming narrative
NBIS: Narrative caught up to price — confirmation achieved, watch for exhaustion
price ahead of story→price confirming narrative· 2d in prior
After 2d with price running ahead, narrative finally arrived. Both now aligned: European AI cloud buildout
watchPrice-led-to-confirmed can be a topping signal — narrative catching up at the peak.
historyHistorical PLN→PCN: +2.15pp avg, n=16
2026-05-07price lagging narrative
TTD: Exiting macro pattern — actor-specific narrative emerging
moving with tape→price lagging narrative· 5d in prior
After 5d of tape-following, actor-specific narrative is forming: Programmatic ad platform; AI-driven buying, connected TV, and open internet vs. walled gardens
watchWatch for narr to sustain ≥20 for 2+ more days before acting on this.