GOOGLdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-31story not being paid
GOOGL: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 2d in prior
After 2d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: AI search competition + Waymo
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
VRTdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-31story not being paid
VRT: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 2d in prior
After 2d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Power and cooling for AI data centers
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
TSMdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-31negative confirmation
TSM: Bearish thesis validated — disagreement resolved to the downside
disagreement→negative confirmation· 2d in prior
After 2d of DISAGREEMENT, price broke down. Negative narrative confirmed: Advanced node demand; geopolitical risk
watchNEG_CONFIRMATION held ≥3d is structural bearish. Watch for potential T7 reversal.
historyHistorical SNB→MWT: -1.06pp avg, n=18
INTCdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-29negative confirmation
INTC: Bearish thesis validated — disagreement resolved to the downside
disagreement→negative confirmation· 7d in prior
After 7d of DISAGREEMENT, price broke down. Negative narrative confirmed: Qualcomm acquisition chatter; foundry pivot
watchNEG_CONFIRMATION held ≥3d is structural bearish. Watch for potential T7 reversal.
historyHistorical SNB→MWT: -1.06pp avg, n=18
PLTRdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-28story not being paid
PLTR: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 4d in prior
After 4d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Government AI contracts + commercial growth
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
SNOWdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-28negative confirmation
SNOW: Bearish thesis validated — disagreement resolved to the downside
disagreement→negative confirmation· 9d in prior
After 9d of DISAGREEMENT, price broke down. Negative narrative confirmed: Data cloud growth narrative stalling
watchNEG_CONFIRMATION held ≥3d is structural bearish. Watch for potential T7 reversal.
historyHistorical SNB→MWT: -1.06pp avg, n=18
MSFTdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-26story not being paid
MSFT: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 2d in prior
After 2d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Copilot + OpenAI bet gaining traction
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
GOOGLdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-26story not being paid
GOOGL: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 5d in prior
After 5d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: AI search competition + Waymo
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
ADBEdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-26story not being paid
ADBE: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 2d in prior
After 2d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Earnings pressure vs AI creative tools story
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
NFLXdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-26story not being paid
NFLX: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening
price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 2d in prior
After 2d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Ad-supported tier growth; AI personalization and live sports expansion
watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.
historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45
CRMdeterioratinghightransition 2026-05-26negative confirmation
CRM: Bearish thesis validated — disagreement resolved to the downside
disagreement→negative confirmation· 6d in prior
After 6d of DISAGREEMENT, price broke down. Negative narrative confirmed: Agentforce adoption narrative cooling
watchNEG_CONFIRMATION held ≥3d is structural bearish. Watch for potential T7 reversal.
historyHistorical SNB→MWT: -1.06pp avg, n=18
2026-05-29price confirming narrative
SNDK: Confirmation weakening — NDS compressing toward zero
In CONFIRMED for 4d but NDS=-51 — gap closing. Thesis: Enterprise NAND demand for AI workloads; cheap-multiple value setup
watchIf rel drops below 3.0 while in CONFIRMED, T5 transition likely within 2 days.
2026-05-28negative confirmation
CRM: Negative confirmation deepening — bearish structure 3d old
NEG_CONFIRMATION held 3d with narr=54. Bearish narrative: Agentforce adoption narrative cooling
watchWatch for T7 price recovery. NEG_CONFIRMATION ≥7d rarely reverses quickly.
historySNB→MWT: −1.06pp avg, n=18
MRVLdeterioratingtransition 2026-05-28early follow-through
MRVL: Confirmation broke — price losing alignment with narrative
price confirming narrative→early follow-through· 2d in prior
After 2d in CONFIRMED, the state collapsed back to EARLY. Thesis challenged: AI networking revenue accelerating
watchIf narr holds ≥55 the thesis may be repricing, not dying. If narr drops <50, treat as breakdown.
AMDdeterioratingtransition 2026-05-26early follow-through
AMD: Confirmation broke — price losing alignment with narrative
price confirming narrative→early follow-through· 2d in prior
After 2d in CONFIRMED, the state collapsed back to EARLY. Thesis challenged: AI GPU competition narrative vs NVDA
watchIf narr holds ≥55 the thesis may be repricing, not dying. If narr drops <50, treat as breakdown.
MSFTdeterioratingtransition 2026-05-31early follow-through
MSFT: Narrative weakening — repricing shifting toward early-stage
price lagging narrative→early follow-through· 2d in prior
After 2d in REPRICING, NDS compression suggests narrative losing force: Copilot + OpenAI bet gaining traction
watchWatch narr trend. Rising = still in play. Declining = story fading.
ORCLdeterioratingtransition 2026-05-29early follow-through
ORCL: Narrative weakening — repricing shifting toward early-stage
price lagging narrative→early follow-through· 12d in prior
After 12d in REPRICING, NDS compression suggests narrative losing force: Cloud + AI infra expansion, rising price targets
watchWatch narr trend. Rising = still in play. Declining = story fading.