Alerts

State changes, setup conditions, and structure tensions that crossed a meaningful threshold.

2026-05-14 · 35 alerts in last 7 days · 8 active today

Actorall ADBE AMD AMZN ANET ARM AVGO CRWV DDOG DELL GOOGL INTC META MP MRVL MSFT NBIS NFLX NVDA SMCI SNOW TSM TTD VST

Typeall deteriorating unresolved persistent improving

deteriorating13

Active today

MPdeterioratinghightransition

2026-05-14story not being paid

MP: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening

price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 6d in prior

After 6d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Rare earth mining; China tariff tailwind and supply chain angle

watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.

historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45

·2026-05-14Trump-Xi Summit Puts Nvidia, Boeing And 500-Jet Deal In Focus ·2026-05-09MP Materials Apple Deal Recasts Rare Earth Miner As Integrated Magnet Supplier ·2026-05-09Expert Reveals China’s Rare Earth Chokehold: ‘Within 6 Weeks, American Industry Was Struggling’

ARMdeterioratinghightransition

2026-05-14story not being paid

ARM: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening

price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 6d in prior

After 6d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Architecture licensing expanding into AI chips

watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.

historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45

·2026-05-14AMD and ARM Extend Server Market Gains While Intel Loses Share (AMD)·2026-05-13What's Going On With Arm Stock Wednesday?·2026-05-13Arm, SoftBank Said to Have Tried to Buy Cerebras

Earlier this week

ADBEdeterioratinghightransition

2026-05-11story not being paid

ADBE: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening

price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 7d in prior

After 7d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Earnings pressure vs AI creative tools story

watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.

historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45

·2026-05-10Here’s What the Street Thinks About Adobe (ADBE)·2026-05-09Adobe (ADBE) Valuation Check As New AI Productivity Agent Targets Document Workflows ·2026-05-08Adobe (ADBE): A New Healthcare Collaboration Signals A Broader Strategy At Work

AMZNdeterioratinghightransition

2026-05-11story not being paid

AMZN: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening

price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 4d in prior

After 4d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Custom silicon (Trainium) + Globalstar buyout

watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.

historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45

·2026-05-12Secure Code Warrior Signs Strategic Collaboration Agreement with AWS to Support Security-Conscious Developers with Amazo ·2026-05-11Microsoft boss to testify on his role in OpenAI's founding ·2026-05-11Nvidia (NVDA) Draws Bullish Goldman Sachs Call Ahead of Earnings

SNOWdeterioratinghightransition

2026-05-11negative confirmation

SNOW: Bearish thesis validated — disagreement resolved to the downside

disagreement→negative confirmation· 4d in prior

After 4d of DISAGREEMENT, price broke down. Negative narrative confirmed: Data cloud growth narrative stalling

watchNEG_CONFIRMATION held ≥3d is structural bearish. Watch for potential T7 reversal.

historyHistorical SNB→MWT: -1.06pp avg, n=18

·2026-05-11Did AI Hurt Tech? Upwork, Datadog Earnings Show Enterprise Software Strength ·2026-05-11CIO says software infrastructure stocks still attractive ·2026-05-07Snowflake Is Up 9% Today: Is It Outperforming Other Cloud Stocks Like ServiceNow?

METAdeterioratinghightransition

2026-05-09story not being paid

META: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening

price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 2d in prior

After 2d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: AI chips and data center build-out

watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.

historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45

·2026-05-09Why Meta's Pullback Looks Bullish ·2026-05-09Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms Just Reported Earnings. Which Is the Best Buy?·2026-05-09Pentagon Boosts Meta-Backed Scale AI Contract To $500 Million Amid Military AI Push

MSFTdeterioratinghightransition

2026-05-09story not being paid

MSFT: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening

price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 2d in prior

After 2d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: Copilot + OpenAI bet gaining traction

watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.

historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45

·2026-05-09Microsoft: The Best Time To Buy Is When Others Continue To Ignore ·2026-05-09Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms Just Reported Earnings. Which Is the Best Buy?·2026-05-09How Microsoft Pulled off ‘One of the Best Tech Acquisitions of the Last Decade’

CRWVdeterioratinghightransition

2026-05-09negative confirmation

CRWV: Bearish thesis validated — disagreement resolved to the downside

disagreement→negative confirmation· 5d in prior

After 5d of DISAGREEMENT, price broke down. Negative narrative confirmed: CoreWeave cloud IPO hype fading

watchNEG_CONFIRMATION held ≥3d is structural bearish. Watch for potential T7 reversal.

historyHistorical SNB→MWT: -1.06pp avg, n=18

·2026-05-09CoreWeave: Lagging Margins Create An Uncertain Picture ·2026-05-08These Stocks Are Today’s Movers: CoreWeave, Trade Desk, Cloudflare, Akamai, Block, and More ·2026-05-08Nvidia's IREN investment, Wendy's & Rocket Labs earnings beat

CRWVdeterioratinghightransition

2026-05-08negative confirmation

CRWV: Bearish thesis validated — disagreement resolved to the downside

disagreement→negative confirmation· 4d in prior

After 4d of DISAGREEMENT, price broke down. Negative narrative confirmed: CoreWeave cloud IPO hype fading

watchNEG_CONFIRMATION held ≥3d is structural bearish. Watch for potential T7 reversal.

historyHistorical SNB→MWT: -1.06pp avg, n=18

·2026-05-08These Stocks Are Today’s Movers: CoreWeave, Trade Desk, Cloudflare, Akamai, Block, and More ·2026-05-08Nvidia's IREN investment, Wendy's & Rocket Labs earnings beat ·2026-05-08IREN’s Partnership With NVIDIA Expands With $3.4 Billion AI Cloud Contract

ANETdeterioratinghightransition

2026-05-07story not being paid

ANET: Repricing turning to divergence — narrative-price gap widening

price lagging narrative→story not being paid· 3d in prior

After 3d of REPRICING, price still hasn't followed the narrative. Story: AI networking infrastructure demand

watchIf narr stays elevated, gap may snap into confirmation. If narr fades, thesis is dying quietly.

historyHistorical PLN→SNB: +2.48pp avg, n=45

·2026-05-07Oracle upgraded, Planet Fitness downgraded: Wall Street's top analyst calls ·2026-05-07Morgan Stanley Raises its Price Target on Arista Networks (ANET) to $180 ·2026-05-07Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Planet Fitness, Whirlpool, Vital Farms, Shake Shack & more

SMCIdeterioratingsetup

2026-05-10price confirming narrative

SMCI: Confirmation weakening — NDS compressing toward zero

In CONFIRMED for 4d but NDS=-89 — gap closing. Thesis: AI server demand; VAST Data partnership

watchIf rel drops below 3.0 while in CONFIRMED, T5 transition likely within 2 days.

·2026-05-10Nvidia Smuggling Allegations Put Export Controls And Investor Risks In Focus ·2026-05-10Assessing Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE) After AI Data Center Power MOU With Super Micro ·2026-05-10Could Nano Nuclear’s Microreactor Deal Quietly Redefine Supermicro’s (SMCI) Long-Term AI Data Center Edge?

TSMdeterioratingsetup

2026-05-09negative confirmation

TSM: Negative confirmation deepening — bearish structure 7d old

NEG_CONFIRMATION held 7d with narr=58. Bearish narrative: Advanced node demand; geopolitical risk

watchWatch for T7 price recovery. NEG_CONFIRMATION ≥7d rarely reverses quickly.

historySNB→MWT: −1.06pp avg, n=18

·2026-05-09Apple Intel Chip Deal Reshapes Supply Chain And Valuation Debate ·2026-05-09Jim Cramer on Taiwan Semi: “They Have More Business Than They Can Handle”·2026-05-09TSMC and Sony Sign Agreement to Codevelop and Manufacture Next-Gen Image Sensors in Kumamoto, Japan

AMDdeterioratingtransition

2026-05-09early follow-through

AMD: Confirmation broke — price losing alignment with narrative

price confirming narrative→early follow-through· 2d in prior

After 2d in CONFIRMED, the state collapsed back to EARLY. Thesis challenged: AI GPU competition narrative vs NVDA

watchIf narr holds ≥55 the thesis may be repricing, not dying. If narr drops <50, treat as breakdown.

·2026-05-09Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Reports Q1 2026 Revenue of $10.3B Driven by Data Center Growth ·2026-05-09Rocket Lab, Super Micro Computer, eBay And More: 5 Stocks Investors Couldn't Stop Buzzing About This Week ·2026-05-09Jim Cramer Slams AMD Downgrade

Clear filter · show all 35 alerts

Alerts fire when a state transition or setup condition crosses a meaningful threshold — minimum 2 days in prior state, minimum narrative count of 15, fire-once suppression per state run. One-day flips are not reported.

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