L0 Event Field BUILT
Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.
adds Captures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming ADBE, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today 964 events naming ADBE in the 132-day window where every layer has coverage (2,139 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming ADBE 964 total · peak 76 on 03-13
Peak day sample: “Adobe's Revenue Accelerates. Is It Time to Buy This Beaten-Down Software Stock?”
Some gaps 18 of 132 days in this window had zero events for ADBE — longest gap 5 consecutive days. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
L1 Narrative Field BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED
Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.
adds Places ADBE inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
today Primary cluster: “week / investors / about” . Density (7d): 0.231 (momentum +0.067 , novelty 0.22 ). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
ADBE’s primary cluster over time 98 distinct clusters · 108 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2026-01-02
AI investment strategies for 2026
3d in this narrative
2026-02-10
AI investment strategies and market outlook
7d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
11d in this narrative
2026-04-27
Earnings season insights and stock analysis
1d in this narrative
L2 Expectation Field BUILT V1
Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.
adds Turns ADBE's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
today Latest: mixed rotational at conviction 0.60 . “ADBE's narrative surrounding its AI creative tools is not translating into price gains, as evidenced by a negative NDS and recent divergence states. Despite positive relative performance against the tape, the persistent narrative dislocation suggests further volatility in the nea”
ADBE’s daily expectation 130 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current repricing state and persistent earnings pressure, ADBE is likely to face continued challenges in aligning its narrative with price performance over the next couple of months. 2025-11-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the earnings narrative fails to align with positive AI creative tools sentiment, leading to persistent price lagging. The repricing state suggests further challenges ahead. 2025-11-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — ADBE is likely to face continued challenges as earnings pressure weighs against the positive narrative surrounding AI creative tools. The current repricing state suggests potential for further volatility in the near term. 2025-11-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the ongoing earnings pressure and a declining narrative score, ADBE is likely to continue facing challenges in the near term. The repricing state suggests further downward movement may be expected. 2025-12-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure as the divergence between earnings expectations and the AI narrative persists, with relative performance trailing peers. The market may remain cautious, reflecting uncertainty in growth potential. 2025-12-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as earnings pressure weighs against the narrative surrounding AI creative tools. The current trajectory suggests a struggle to align price with narrative expectations. 2025-12-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing pressure as the narrative surrounding earnings and AI creative tools remains unfavorable. The current trajectory indicates persistent challenges ahead for ADBE. 2025-12-04 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE may experience volatility as it navigates earnings pressures while competing with emerging AI creative tools. The early state suggests potential for a turn in momentum, but caution is warranted. 2025-12-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on ADBE's share price as earnings concerns persist against the backdrop of competitive AI narratives. The confirmed state suggests a bearish outlook. 2025-12-08 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, ADBE is experiencing early signs of stabilization after recent repricing. The narrative around earnings pressure against AI tools remains a concern, but there is potential for a positive shift if momentum builds. 2025-12-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued earnings pressure, suggesting a potential bearish trajectory over the next couple of months. The narrative surrounding AI creative tools remains a significant factor influencing investor sentiment. 2025-12-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, ADBE is showing an early state with a positive narrative pressure, indicating potential recovery from recent earnings concerns. The trajectory suggests a cautious optimism, but continued scrutiny of AI market dynamics will be crucial. 2025-12-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests continued earnings pressure may weigh on ADBE's performance in the near term. Despite some positive narrative, price momentum remains underwhelming as the AI tools story fails to translate into sustained gains. 2025-12-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates potential for price stabilization and a possible upward trajectory as early signs of confirmation emerge. However, earnings pressure and the competitive landscape in AI creative tools could limit significant gains in the near term. 2025-12-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural pressures suggest continued challenges for ADBE, with earnings concerns overshadowing the positive narrative around AI tools. Expect potential further price adjustments in alignment with these dynamics. 2025-12-16 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — ADBE is currently experiencing early signs of price recovery, but earnings pressures coupled with a strong AI tools narrative may limit upward momentum. Expect fluctuations as market sentiment continues to assess the balance between growth potential and current performance. 2025-12-17 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as Adobe navigates earnings pressures while trying to leverage the AI creative tools narrative. Price movements could remain constrained as the market assesses the impact of these factors. 2025-12-18 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural state indicates an early phase with price beginning to follow the narrative. However, earnings pressure remains a concern, suggesting potential volatility ahead as the market assesses the impact of AI tools. 2025-12-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates ongoing repricing as earnings pressures mount against the backdrop of competition from AI creative tools. Expect continued challenges in the near term as the narrative weighs heavily on market sentiment. 2025-12-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as earnings pressures weigh on the narrative surrounding AI tools. Market sentiment may remain cautious as ADBE's performance lags. 2025-12-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing pressure as the narrative around earnings struggles against the backdrop of advancing AI creative tools. Market sentiment remains cautious. 2025-12-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as earnings concerns persist, particularly in the context of competitive AI tools. Expect volatility as the narrative pressure weighs on performance. 2025-12-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative around earnings pressure persists, potentially leading to further declines in relative performance against the benchmark. Structural challenges remain significant. 2025-12-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pricing pressure as the narrative around AI creative tools weighs heavily on earnings expectations. ADBE's current repricing state suggests challenges in regaining upward momentum. 2025-12-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on ADBE as earnings concerns persist amidst competition from AI creative tools. The narrative indicates a bearish sentiment that may further impact pricing. 2025-12-31 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next couple of months are likely to see continued earnings pressure as the narrative surrounding AI creative tools weighs on performance. The repricing state suggests caution among investors. 2026-01-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates ongoing earnings pressure with a lagging narrative against AI creative tools. Expect continued repricing in the near term as the market reacts to these dynamics. 2026-01-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current divergence reflects ongoing earnings pressure, likely leading to continued underperformance against the benchmark in the next 1-2 months. The narrative surrounding AI creative tools remains a significant challenge. 2026-01-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued pressure on Adobe's stock as the narrative around earnings struggles against the backdrop of increasing competition from AI creative tools. Divergence indicators point to a lack of support for the current price levels. 2026-01-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE is likely to face continued pricing pressure as earnings concerns persist, especially in the context of AI creative tools. The narrative remains strong, but price action is lagging, suggesting a bearish outlook. 2026-01-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the coming months, ADBE is likely to face continued pricing pressure as its narrative struggles against the backdrop of AI creative tools. The current repricing state suggests further challenges ahead, potentially leading to a bearish trend. 2026-01-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE is likely to continue facing downward pressure as earnings concerns persist and the narrative around AI creative tools fails to translate into price gains. The repricing state suggests a challenging environment ahead. 2026-01-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state indicates continued earnings pressure, with the narrative around AI creative tools failing to translate into positive price momentum. Expect a challenging environment in the coming months. 2026-01-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The short-term outlook suggests continued price pressure due to the divergence between strong narrative and actual market performance. Earnings concerns are likely to dominate, maintaining a bearish sentiment. 2026-01-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued earnings pressure as the narrative around AI creative tools persists. The divergence in performance suggests that the market is not currently rewarding ADBE's story. 2026-01-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure as the divergence persists, with the narrative not translating into positive price movement. The market appears to be skeptical of ADBE's ability to compete effectively in the AI space. 2026-01-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on ADBE's earnings narrative as the divergence with the market persists. The negative relative return indicates a challenging environment for recovery. 2026-01-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ADBE's trajectory shows persistent earnings pressure, with divergence from price expectations indicating potential further declines. The narrative around AI creative tools continues to weigh heavily on market perception. 2026-01-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ADBE is experiencing a repricing phase characterized by persistent earnings pressure against a backdrop of positive narrative surrounding AI creative tools. This suggests continued challenges in aligning price with narrative expectations over the next couple of months. 2026-01-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ADBE is expected to face ongoing earnings pressure as the narrative around AI creative tools struggles to translate into positive price action. The repricing state suggests continued challenges in aligning market performance with narrative strength. 2026-01-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the market fails to respond positively to the AI creative tools narrative amidst ongoing earnings pressure. Expect further price lag relative to narrative momentum. 2026-01-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE may experience volatility as earnings pressures weigh against the AI creative tools narrative. The current divergence in price action suggests potential for mixed outcomes. 2026-01-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The near-term outlook suggests continued repricing pressure as the narrative surrounding earnings struggles to align with the positive AI tools story. Expect ongoing volatility with potential for further declines in price. 2026-01-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months may continue to see pricing pressures as the narrative around AI creative tools weighs on sentiment. ADBE's repricing state suggests further challenges ahead in regaining momentum. 2026-01-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the persistent repricing state and the negative relative performance, ADBE is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the next 1-2 months. The narrative around AI tools is not translating into price gains, suggesting a challenging environment ahead. 2026-01-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued earnings pressure with a narrative that is not translating into price performance. Expect further repricing in the coming months as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-02-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The outlook remains negative as earnings pressure continues amidst a challenging narrative around AI disruption. Price lagging against the persistent narrative suggests further repricing is likely. 2026-02-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pricing pressure as the narrative surrounding AI disruption weighs heavily on Adobe's stock. Despite a strong narrative, the divergence indicates that positive sentiment is not translating into price appreciation. 2026-02-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ADBE is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative around AI disruption weighs heavily on its earnings outlook. Expect further repricing as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-02-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Expect continued repricing pressures as earnings concerns overshadow the narrative around AI tools. The current trajectory suggests persistent downward pressure on price in the coming months. 2026-02-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued downward pressure as the divergence between narrative and price persists. The prevailing concern over AI's impact on software margins will likely keep sentiment negative. 2026-02-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The outlook remains bearish as ADBE's narrative struggles to translate into price movement, reflecting ongoing earnings pressure. Expect continued divergence with potential for further downside if sentiment does not improve. 2026-02-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The near-term outlook is uncertain as the narrative surrounding earnings pressure clashes with the competitive landscape of AI creative tools. A potential inflection point may emerge as market sentiment stabilizes. 2026-02-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure as earnings concerns persist against the backdrop of the AI narrative. Divergence indicates a lack of positive momentum. 2026-02-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty as the narrative around earnings pressure versus AI creative tools unfolds. ADBE's unclear state suggests potential volatility without a clear directional bias. 2026-02-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty as the narrative around earnings pressure versus AI creative tools develops. A lack of clear direction suggests a cautious approach is warranted. 2026-02-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The current unclear state suggests potential volatility in the near term, with earnings pressure from AI narratives weighing on performance. A lack of clear directional movement may lead to cautious trading. 2026-02-18 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty as earnings pressures weigh against a backdrop of narrative divergence in the sector. Without a clear direction, ADBE could experience choppy trading as it navigates these conflicting signals. 2026-02-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued downward pressure as earnings concerns overshadow the AI narrative. The structural picture suggests a challenging environment for recovery. 2026-02-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty as earnings pressure weighs on sentiment, while the AI creative tools narrative struggles to provide clear support. A divergence in market perception could lead to volatile trading. 2026-02-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ADBE is likely to face ongoing price pressure as the narrative around AI's impact on software margins continues to dominate. With a divergence state persisting, the outlook remains negative in the near term. 2026-02-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The outlook for ADBE is uncertain as it faces earnings pressure, while the narrative is not fully aligned with current market sentiment. This may lead to volatile trading in the near term. 2026-02-25 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The outlook remains uncertain as earnings pressures collide with narratives surrounding AI creative tools. ADBE may experience volatility as market sentiment evolves. 2026-02-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — As of now, ADBE faces significant earnings pressure while contending with the narrative surrounding AI creative tools. The unclear state suggests potential volatility in the near term, with traders likely to react to any emerging news or developments. 2026-02-27 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty as earnings pressures juxtapose with narratives around AI creative tools. A lack of clear direction indicates potential volatility. 2026-03-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued challenges for ADBE as earnings pressures persist in the context of competitive AI creative tools. The narrative remains weak, suggesting further price adjustments may be necessary. 2026-03-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With ongoing earnings pressure and a negative narrative dislocation score, ADBE is likely to experience continued downward price momentum in the near term. The divergence from peers suggests a challenging environment ahead. 2026-03-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the coming months, ADBE is likely to continue facing downward pressure as earnings concerns persist, with the narrative struggling to support price levels. The divergence from peers indicates a challenging environment ahead. 2026-03-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE is likely to face continued pressure as the narrative around earnings struggles to gain traction against the backdrop of AI creative tools. The price-LED state suggests a lack of alignment with positive narratives. 2026-03-06 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The structural picture suggests potential volatility in the near term, with earnings pressures impacting momentum. However, the relative return indicates some resilience, hinting at possible stabilization as the market processes the narrative. 2026-03-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months may see continued challenges as earnings pressure persists against the backdrop of competitive AI narratives. ADBE's current positive trajectory may not sustain without addressing these concerns. 2026-03-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE is likely to continue facing earnings pressure, with the narrative around AI creative tools impacting investor sentiment. The repricing state suggests further adjustments may be necessary. 2026-03-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current repricing state and ongoing earnings pressure, ADBE is likely to face continued challenges in the short term. The narrative surrounding AI creative tools is not sufficiently offsetting the pricing pressures observed. 2026-03-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the earnings pressure weighs on sentiment amidst the competitive AI narrative. ADBE may struggle to regain bullish momentum in the face of these challenges. 2026-03-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure as the divergence between narrative and performance persists, particularly with the ongoing concerns about earnings in relation to AI tools. The market appears to be pricing in a negative outlook. 2026-03-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued downward pressure as the divergence persists and the narrative around earnings remains weak against AI developments. ADBE's relative underperformance suggests caution. 2026-03-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ADBE is likely to face continued earnings pressure as the narrative around AI creative tools impacts investor sentiment. The divergence in pricing suggests a lack of confidence in the current growth story. 2026-03-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current divergence indicates ongoing earnings pressure, with the narrative not being fully reflected in the stock price. Expect continued volatility and potential downtrends in the near term as the market assesses the impact of AI developments. 2026-03-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued earnings pressure as the narrative around AI creative tools intensifies, keeping ADBE in a divergence state. Relative underperformance against benchmarks suggests a challenging road ahead. 2026-03-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the market grapples with earnings pressures against the backdrop of AI creative tools. Uncertainty in the narrative may lead to further volatility. 2026-03-23 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — The outlook suggests a potential stabilization as the repricing phase continues, but earnings pressure remains a significant concern against the backdrop of AI creative tools. Expect volatility as the market seeks clarity. 2026-03-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE is likely to face continued earnings pressure as the narrative surrounding AI creative tools intensifies, leading to further repricing in its stock. The current trajectory suggests a lagging response to the narrative pressure. 2026-03-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With ongoing repricing and persistent earnings pressure relative to the AI creative tools narrative, ADBE is likely to struggle in the near term. The negative price trajectory indicates a bearish outlook over the next couple of months. 2026-03-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on ADBE's price as it grapples with earnings concerns against a backdrop of AI-driven narratives. Expect further volatility as the market reassesses its valuation. 2026-03-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE is likely to continue facing pressure as the earnings narrative struggles against the backdrop of AI creative tools. The repricing state suggests that the market is not adequately reflecting the potential of the narrative. 2026-03-30 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — With a narrative pressure around earnings amidst a rising story in AI creative tools, ADBE may face volatility in the near term. However, the current early state suggests potential upward movement if the narrative can stabilize. 2026-03-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the short term, ADBE is likely to experience volatility as it navigates earnings pressures while competing with AI creative tools. The current structural indicators suggest potential price stabilization, but caution is warranted. 2026-04-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Given the current early state and the positive narrative dislocation score, ADBE may see some upward price movement, but earnings pressure could limit significant gains. The trajectory suggests a cautious outlook as narratives evolve. 2026-04-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued repricing as earnings pressure persists against a backdrop of competitive AI narratives. A further decline in relative performance is likely as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-04-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued earnings pressure as ADBE faces challenges from the evolving AI creative tools narrative. The repricing state indicates a likelihood of further downward adjustments. 2026-04-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure as the divergence suggests the market is not fully recognizing the earnings impact from AI competition. ADBE may struggle to regain positive momentum. 2026-04-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the ongoing divergence between narrative and price, ADBE is likely to face continued downward pressure in the short term. The AI disruption narrative is weighing heavily on growth software stocks, including ADBE. 2026-04-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With ongoing earnings pressure and a prevailing narrative of AI disrupting software margins, ADBE is likely to continue facing downward price pressure in the near term. The divergence between narrative and price performance suggests skepticism in the market regarding the company' 2026-04-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.80 — ADBE is likely to continue facing downward pressure as positive narratives around AI creative tools fail to translate into price appreciation. The divergence state suggests sustained earnings pressure amidst broader sector challenges. 2026-04-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural divergence indicates continued selling pressure in the near term, with earnings concerns overshadowing any positive sentiment from AI developments. Expect a challenging environment as the market remains cautious. 2026-04-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE is likely to face continued pressure as the narrative surrounding AI disruption weighs heavily on earnings expectations. The divergence observed suggests a lack of market confidence in a turnaround. 2026-04-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued challenges as earnings pressure persists against a backdrop of AI creative tools competition. Expect further repricing as the market adjusts to these dynamics. 2026-04-16 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE may experience volatility as it navigates earnings pressure against the backdrop of AI creative tools. The early state suggests potential for a rebound, but caution is warranted. 2026-04-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE may experience fluctuations as it navigates earnings pressures while adapting to the competitive landscape of AI creative tools. A potential shift in narrative could influence price direction. 2026-04-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as ADBE grapples with earnings pressure in the context of an evolving AI narrative. Market sentiment remains cautious, suggesting further downside risk. 2026-04-21 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see ADBE's price stabilize as it navigates earnings pressure while the narrative around AI creative tools persists. There is potential for a rebound if the narrative begins to align more positively with price movements. 2026-04-22 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the near term, ADBE may face continued earnings pressure while navigating the evolving narrative around AI creative tools. Price movements are likely to remain volatile as the market assesses the impact of these narratives. 2026-04-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, ADBE is likely to continue facing challenges as positive narratives around AI creative tools fail to translate into price support. The divergence in performance suggests ongoing earnings pressure. 2026-04-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pricing pressure as the narrative around earnings challenges persists, particularly against the backdrop of emerging AI tools. This could lead to further repricing in the stock. 2026-04-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ADBE is expected to continue facing price pressure despite a strong narrative, as the divergence between narrative strength and price performance persists. The outlook remains bearish in the near term. 2026-04-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ADBE is likely to face continued earnings pressure, with price lagging behind a strong narrative. The repricing state suggests some stabilization, but overall sentiment remains negative. 2026-04-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, Adobe is likely to continue facing pressure as its positive narrative fails to translate into price movement, reflecting the broader divergence trend. The earnings pressure against the AI creative tools story may further exacerbate this situation. 2026-04-30 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the narrative around earnings pressure persists, with potential fluctuations based on market sentiment towards AI tools. The recent divergence suggests volatility could influence price movements. 2026-05-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ADBE's repricing state indicates ongoing earnings pressure, suggesting that the stock may continue to lag behind the positive narrative surrounding AI creative tools. Expect further volatility as market sentiment adjusts. 2026-05-04 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see ADBE navigating through earnings pressures while attempting to align with the AI creative tools narrative. A cautious approach is warranted as the early state suggests potential for shifts. 2026-05-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are expected to see continued pricing pressure as the narrative around earnings struggles to gain traction, despite a positive outlook on AI tools. The divergence between narrative and price could lead to further repricing. 2026-05-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on Adobe's stock as the narrative around AI disruption weighs heavily, with earnings concerns persisting. A lack of positive momentum in price suggests further repricing may occur. 2026-05-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are expected to remain challenging as earnings pressure continues and narrative strength fails to translate into price performance. The repricing trend suggests persistent bearish sentiment. 2026-05-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates ongoing repricing pressures, with narrative strength failing to translate into price stability. Expect continued challenges as the market grapples with AI-related earnings concerns. 2026-05-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural divergence and continued earnings pressure suggest a challenging environment for ADBE over the next couple of months. Price may remain under pressure as the narrative fails to translate into positive market sentiment. 2026-05-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Given the ongoing divergence and earnings pressure, ADBE is likely to face continued challenges in the near term. The narrative around AI creative tools is not translating into positive price movement, suggesting a bearish outlook. 2026-05-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued struggles for ADBE as earnings pressure persists against a backdrop of a compelling AI creative tools narrative that is not translating into price support. Expect further divergence as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-05-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ADBE is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative around AI disruption in the software sector persists. The divergence between narrative and price suggests ongoing challenges in gaining market traction. 2026-05-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pricing pressure as the narrative around earnings struggles to gain traction, with recent repricing suggesting a lack of confidence in recovery. The divergence from peers further complicates the outlook. 2026-05-18 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — ADBE is currently experiencing early signs of price stabilization after a period of repricing. However, ongoing earnings pressure related to AI creative tools may hinder upward momentum in the near term. 2026-05-19 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.70 — Adobe's current price-led state indicates that the market is acknowledging the potential of its AI creative tools, yet earnings pressure continues to weigh on narrative strength. Despite a relative return of +5.16% against the tape, the narrative dislocation score of -16.8 highli 2026-05-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — ADBE's price is currently ahead of its narrative, driven by market enthusiasm for its AI creative tools. However, the narrative has not caught up due to ongoing earnings pressure. Over the next 1-2 months, expect continued volatility as the market reconciles the AI growth story w 2026-05-21 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — Adobe's recent price gains have outpaced its AI narrative, leading to a negative narrative dislocation score. Despite earnings pressure, the stock has continued to perform well relative to the broader market. However, this divergence suggests potential volatility as the narrative 2026-05-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — Adobe is currently in a MACRO state, moving with the tape, and its narrative is lagging behind its price gains, as indicated by a negative NDS of -19.6. This suggests that while the stock has outperformed the broader market (+3.7% rel return), the underlying narrative hasn't caug 2026-05-25 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — ADBE is currently in a repricing state with a narrative that is leading the price, as reflected by a positive NDS of +12.8. The company's narrative around AI creative tools remains strong, but earnings pressure could continue to weigh on the stock in the near term. The recent tra 2026-05-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — Adobe's AI creative tools narrative continues to gain traction, leading to a positive NDS of +12.8. However, the company's earnings pressure is causing a lag in price performance, as evidenced by the recent repricing state. The stock may stabilize as the market digests the potent 2026-05-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Adobe's narrative of AI creative tools continues to outperform its stock price, as seen by the ongoing divergence state and a high NDS of +71.9. The price remains pressured despite strong narrative support, reflecting broader sector trends where positive stories are not translati 2026-05-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — Adobe's current struggle with earnings pressure is overshadowing its potential in AI creative tools, as evidenced by its persistent negative relative return despite a strong narrative signal. The divergence state suggests that while the market acknowledges the AI story, it is not 2026-05-31 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — Adobe's narrative around AI creative tools continues to outpace its earnings performance, as reflected by the positive NDS of +43.3 despite a relative return of -7.9%. This divergence suggests that while the market is not yet rewarding the AI story, any positive earnings surprise 2026-06-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — ADBE's narrative surrounding its AI creative tools is not translating into price gains, as evidenced by a negative NDS and recent divergence states. Despite positive relative performance against the tape, the persistent narrative dislocation suggests further volatility in the nea Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-24 FIRST
bearish cont. 0.70
“Given the current repricing state and persistent earnings pressure, ADBE is likely to face continued challenges in aligning its narrative with price performance over the next couple of months.”
2026-01-02
bearish cont. 0.70
“The structural picture indicates ongoing earnings pressure with a lagging narrative against AI creative tools. Expect continued repricing in the near term as the market reacts to these dynamics.”
2026-02-10
inflect. pending 0.40
“The near-term outlook is uncertain as the narrative surrounding earnings pressure clashes with the competitive landscape of AI creative tools. A potential inflection point may emerge as market sentiment stabilizes.”
2026-03-19
bearish cont. 0.75
“The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued earnings pressure as the narrative around AI creative tools intensifies, keeping ADBE in a divergence state. Relative underperformance against benchmarks suggests a challenging road ahead.”
2026-04-27
bearish cont. 0.75
“ADBE is expected to continue facing price pressure despite a strong narrative, as the divergence between narrative strength and price performance persists. The outlook remains bearish in the near term.”
2026-06-01 TODAY
mixed rot. 0.60
“ADBE's narrative surrounding its AI creative tools is not translating into price gains, as evidenced by a negative NDS and recent divergence states. Despite positive relative performance against the tape, the persistent narrative dislocation suggests further volatility in the nea”
L3 Expectation Lifecycle Field BUILT V1
Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.
adds Turns ADBE's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today 53 theses tracked over the window; 2 active today, 0 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 53 · strengthened 1 · weakened 1 · contradicted 0 · retired 54.
ADBE’s expectation theses 26 theses shown · 53 total
↓ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
─ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
↓ AI-driven growth and stock performance
↓ Adobe's AI-driven earnings performance
↓ AI investment strategies for 2026
↓ Tech giants navigate AI and regulation
↓ Dell Technologies Growth and Challenges
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
↓ Tech labor market upheaval
─ AI investment strategies and market outlook
─ Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
↓ Memory and semiconductor stock volatility
↓ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
─ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
↓ Corporate Restructuring and Market Dynamics
↓ Adobe earnings and valuation concerns
─ Adobe earnings and valuation concerns
↓ Earnings season pressures software valuations
↓ AI efficiency breakthroughs and innovations
─ Oracle growth and investment outlook
↓ Alphabet's growth and investment potential
↓ AI investment and workforce dynamics
↓ AMD stock outlook and market dynamics
↓ AI investment landscape shifts
─ Apple leadership and market dynamics
● born▲ strengthened▼ weakened✕ contradicted○ retired
2026-01-02
2 active theses
2026-02-10
2 active theses
2026-03-19
3 active theses
2026-04-27
1 active thesis
L4 Performance Field BUILT V1
Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.
adds Closes the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
today System-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. ADBE appears in 21 public regions and 7 limited, including 2 inverted.
ADBE appears in 35 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · direction sample 5d hit 20d hit actors
↓ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
n=65
55% (+8pp)
55% (+6pp)
17
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
n=61
51% (+3pp)
43% (-7pp)
19
↓ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
n=48
54% (+6pp)
63% (+13pp)
16
↓ Earnings season insights and stock analysis
n=46
43% (-4pp)
76% (+27pp)
15
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
n=45
44% (-3pp)
27% (-23pp)
18
↓ Tech giants navigate AI and regulation
n=40
65% (+17pp)
53% (+3pp)
15
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).