Archived research surface·Last refreshed Jun 1, 2026. Not currently maintained as a daily product.
SYSTEM · ARCHITECTURE

Tracing one actor through the stacked field model

Worked example: SMCI across 119 days of corpus (2025-12-09 → 2026-06-01). Each layer card below shows what the system saw for this actor at that layer over the whole window.

Retrace another actor
AAPLADBEAMDAMZNANETARMASMLAVGOCEGCRMCRWVDDOGDELLGOOGLINTCMETAMPMRVLMSFTMUNBISNFLXNVDAORCLPLTRSMCISNOWTSLATSMTTDVRTVST
Point-in-time. At any time t the system only uses data available at or before t. Conviction is the model’s confidence at parse time, not a calibrated probability. Calibration, source/actor trust priors, and region reliability are planned in F-007.
Throughline
SMCI’s daily expectation moved from bearish continuation (0.65, 2025-11-26) through a peak of bearish continuation 0.70 (2026-01-05) to today’s bullish continuation (0.70).
L0Event FieldBUILT

Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.

addsCaptures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming SMCI, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today1,116 events naming SMCI in the 130-day window where every layer has coverage (2,368 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming SMCI1,116 total · peak 110 on 03-20
Peak day sample: “Wall Street Breakfast Podcast: SMCI Hit By Export Scandal”
Minor gaps2 of 130 days in this window had zero events for SMCI. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
2025-11-26FIRST
4
events
2026-01-05
6
events
2026-02-11
3
events
2026-03-19
11
events
2026-04-27
5
events
2026-06-01TODAY
10
events
L1Narrative FieldBUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED

Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.

addsPlaces SMCI inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
todayPrimary cluster: “super / micro / asml”. Density (7d): 0.231 (momentum +0.059, novelty 0.31). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
SMCI’s primary cluster over time61 distinct clusters · 102 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2025-11-26FIRST
—
2026-01-05
AI investment strategies for 2026
4d in this narrative
2026-02-11
AI investment strategies and market outlook
10d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
17d in this narrative
2026-04-27
Alphabet's growth and investment potential
2d in this narrative
2026-06-01TODAY
—
L2Expectation FieldBUILT V1

Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.

addsTurns SMCI's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
todayLatest: bullish continuation at conviction 0.70. “SMCI's price momentum has surged ahead of its AI server demand narrative, with a significant NDS of -174.1 indicating price leading the story. The company's relative return of +34.4% over the broad tape suggests strong investor confidence in its potential despite a cooling narrat”
SMCI’s daily expectation128 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is likely to experience continued downward pressure as the positive narrative around AI server demand fails to translate into price appreciation. The divergence state suggests that the market is not rewarding the narrative adequately.2025-11-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current early state and positive narrative around AI server demand, SMCI is likely to see a continuation of upward price movement in the next 1-2 months. The recent partnership with VAST Data may further bolster this trend.2025-12-01 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, SMCI may experience volatility as it navigates the repricing phase, influenced by the strong narrative around AI server demand and the partnership with VAST Data. The current divergence in relative performance suggests potential for a rebound if market condi2025-12-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state indicates ongoing challenges despite strong narrative support from AI server demand. Expect continued pressure on performance in the near term as the market adjusts.2025-12-03 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued support from AI server demand, although recent repricing suggests caution. Momentum may stabilize as the narrative solidifies.2025-12-04 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — As of now, SMCI is exhibiting early signs of recovery with a positive narrative around AI server demand and a solid partnership with VAST Data. The trajectory suggests potential for further growth in the coming months.2025-12-05 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates a bullish continuation as AI server demand remains robust, despite recent repricing. Expect a gradual recovery in narrative alignment with price.2025-12-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests a continued bullish sentiment as early indicators of recovery in AI server demand are emerging. The partnership with VAST Data may further support price stabilization and growth in the coming months.2025-12-09 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — With confirmed structural strength and a positive narrative around AI server demand, SMCI is positioned for continued growth in the short term. The partnership with VAST Data further supports this outlook.2025-12-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural indicators suggest continued positive momentum in the next 1-2 months, driven by strong AI server demand and the VAST Data partnership. The narrative strength is likely to support further price appreciation.2025-12-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is likely to face continued pricing pressure despite a robust narrative around AI server demand. The divergence with peers suggests that the narrative is not translating into price performance effectively.2025-12-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The expectation is for continued repricing as the narrative around AI server demand remains strong but is not translating into price appreciation. Given the current divergence in the sector, further downward pressure on price is anticipated in the near term.2025-12-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued divergence as positive narratives around AI server demand and partnerships do not translate into price recovery. The persistent underperformance relative to peers suggests bearish sentiment may prevail.2025-12-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued divergence as the positive narrative around AI server demand and partnerships fails to translate into price performance. The persistent negative relative return suggests further challenges ahead.2025-12-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The stock is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the strong narrative around AI server demand and partnerships struggles to translate into price appreciation. A divergence pattern suggests persistent market skepticism.2025-12-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is likely to continue experiencing a divergence between its strong narrative around AI server demand and VAST Data partnership and its underperforming stock price. This trend suggests a challenging environment for a rebound.2025-12-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on SMCI's stock, despite strong narrative support from AI server demand. Expect a challenging environment in the near term as the market adjusts.2025-12-22 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued repricing as the narrative around AI server demand holds. However, the recent divergence in relative performance indicates potential volatility ahead.2025-12-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — As of now, SMCI is experiencing continued repricing, indicating a potential lag in the market's recognition of AI server demand. The trajectory suggests a challenging path ahead with relative performance under pressure.2025-12-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing pressure as the narrative around AI server demand persists, but the relative performance has been lagging. Expect volatility as market sentiment adjusts.2025-12-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — SMCI is showing early signs of recovery after a recent repricing phase, with demand for AI servers expected to gradually improve. However, ongoing divergence in the market indicates caution is warranted.2025-12-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — SMCI is expected to continue facing downward pressure as repricing persists, despite the ongoing narrative around AI server demand. The current relative performance indicates a lagging response to this narrative.2025-12-30 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing phase suggests potential volatility as the stock adjusts to market perceptions of AI server demand. A cautious upward trajectory is possible if narrative strength persists.2025-12-31 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, the structural picture suggests a potential stabilization in pricing as AI server demand remains robust, despite recent repricing pressures. The partnership with VAST Data may further enhance growth prospects.2026-01-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests a continuation of positive momentum driven by AI server demand, with a solid narrative underpinning the current early state. Expect a gradual upward trajectory in the near term as the market aligns with the narrative.2026-01-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the market adjusts to AI server demand narratives. While the partnership with VAST Data adds potential, the current negative relative return indicates pressure.2026-01-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the narrative around AI server demand remains strong, but the recent divergence in price may indicate underlying pressures. Expect potential volatility as the market adjusts.2026-01-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Expect continued pricing challenges as narrative momentum fails to translate into market performance. The REPRICING state suggests a need for strategic adjustments to regain market traction.2026-01-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative around AI server demand struggles to translate into price gains, reflecting a broader trend in the sector.2026-01-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pricing pressure as the narrative around AI server demand fails to translate into price performance, reflecting a broader divergence trend in the sector.2026-01-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing suggests continued pressure on SMCI's price despite a strong narrative around AI server demand and partnerships. Expect further challenges as market sentiment remains cautious.2026-01-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued divergence, as positive narrative around AI server demand fails to translate into price appreciation. The pressure is expected to remain negative as the story is not being paid.2026-01-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates ongoing divergence, suggesting continued pricing challenges despite a strong narrative on AI server demand. Expect further downward pressure in the near term as the market adjusts.2026-01-15 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of mid-January 2026, SMCI is experiencing a repricing phase, with narrative strength around AI server demand. The recent divergence in relative performance suggests potential volatility, but the narrative remains robust, indicating possible stabilization ahead.2026-01-16 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With confirmed structural support and positive narrative momentum, SMCI is positioned for continued growth in the next 1-2 months, driven by AI server demand and partnerships. The recent price performance indicates a bullish outlook despite some narrative dislocation.2026-01-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — Given the confirmed state and strong narrative around AI server demand, SMCI is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the near term. The positive NDS and relative performance against peers support this outlook.2026-01-21 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — While the narrative around AI server demand remains strong, recent pricing divergence suggests potential challenges ahead. Expect continued volatility as market sentiment adjusts.2026-01-22 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, SMCI may experience volatility as the current narrative on AI server demand remains strong, but recent price dislocation suggests caution. The divergence from peer trends indicates potential for a price correction or stabilization.2026-01-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The confirmed state indicates a stable narrative around AI server demand, but the recent divergence suggests potential challenges in maintaining momentum. Expect fluctuations in the near term as market sentiment adjusts.2026-01-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the ongoing divergence between strong narrative and poor price performance, SMCI is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term. The narrative of AI server demand and partnerships is not translating into price appreciation yet.2026-01-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the narrative of AI server demand struggles to positively influence price amidst a divergence state. Market sentiment appears cautious despite strong foundational narratives.2026-01-28 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around AI server demand remains strong, but structural divergence suggests potential headwinds. A shift in pricing dynamics could be imminent.2026-01-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around AI server demand and partnerships, SMCI is experiencing persistent price divergence, indicating a bearish trend. The outlook suggests continued challenges in translating positive sentiment into price movement over the next couple of months.2026-01-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued divergence as the strong narrative around AI server demand fails to translate into price appreciation, reflecting a broader market dislocation. Structural pressures suggest a bearish continuation despite positive underlying dynamics2026-02-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may continue to see pressure on SMCI's price as the narrative around AI infrastructure struggles to translate into positive momentum. The current repricing indicates a lagging response to ongoing demand narratives.2026-02-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The outlook remains cautious as SMCI's narrative strength is not translating into price performance, reflecting persistent repricing pressures. The ongoing divergence in the sector suggests continued challenges ahead in the 1-2 month horizon.2026-02-04 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — While SMCI's narrative around AI server demand remains strong, the current divergence indicates potential volatility in price performance. The confirmed state suggests some stability, but external pressures from the broader software sector may dampen short-term gains.2026-02-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — While SMCI's narrative around AI server demand remains strong, the prevailing price pressure in the sector suggests a challenging near-term outlook. Expect continued volatility as market dynamics play out.2026-02-06 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — While SMCI shows confirmed demand for AI servers and maintains a solid narrative, the negative narrative dislocation score indicates potential price pressure in the near term. A mixed path is likely as the market assesses the sustainability of the current demand against broader s2026-02-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is likely to experience volatility as the narrative around AI server demand continues to be strong, but price performance may struggle due to the divergence observed in the sector. The confirmed state suggests potential for stabilization, but caution 2026-02-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As of now, SMCI's confirmed state and positive relative return suggest a continuation of bullish momentum, driven by ongoing demand for AI infrastructure. However, the narrative dislocation indicates potential volatility in the near term.2026-02-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next couple of months may see continued divergence as the narrative around AI server demand remains strong, but the relative performance is lagging. Investors should monitor for any shifts in momentum.2026-02-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the market reassesses SMCI's valuation in the context of strong AI server demand. A stabilization of narrative metrics could lead to a more positive trajectory.2026-02-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued divergence as the narrative of AI server demand remains strong but is not being fully reflected in the stock price. Expect potential further repricing as market dynamics unfold.2026-02-17 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — Over the next 1-2 months, SMCI may continue to experience fluctuations as the divergence state indicates mixed investor sentiment. The AI server demand narrative remains strong, but recent performance suggests caution is warranted.2026-02-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued divergence as the strong narrative around AI server demand struggles to translate into price movement. Persistent negative relative performance suggests caution.2026-02-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests a potential for continued upward momentum as AI server demand remains strong, aided by partnerships like VAST Data. The current early state indicates room for growth, albeit with some caution due to recent divergences.2026-02-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and a solid narrative around AI server demand, SMCI is positioned for continued upward momentum in the near term. The positive NDS and relative performance suggest a favorable environment for growth.2026-02-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on SMCI's price despite strong narrative support around AI server demand. Expect further challenges in gaining traction as market sentiment remains cautious.2026-02-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With an early state and positive narrative surrounding AI server demand, SMCI is likely to see continued upward movement in the near term. The recent repricing suggests that the market is beginning to align with the narrative.2026-02-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The confirmed state indicates a positive trajectory despite recent NDS pressure. Expect continued strength in demand for AI infrastructure to support upward price movement.2026-02-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around AI server demand stabilizes. A positive shift in relative performance could indicate a potential recovery.2026-02-27 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates sustained demand in the AI server market, suggesting a bullish trajectory over the next couple of months. However, the repricing state indicates potential volatility as the market adjusts to this demand.2026-03-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The early state combined with positive narrative momentum indicates potential for continued upward movement in the near term. The recent positive relative return suggests market support for the AI server demand narrative.2026-03-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the narrative around AI server demand remains strong but unrecognized by the market. Expect pressure on prices as the divergence with peers persists.2026-03-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the narrative around AI server demand struggles to translate into price performance. The divergence from sector peers suggests a potential lag in market recognition.2026-03-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests continued challenges in aligning price with the strong narrative around AI server demand. Expect ongoing struggles in the near term as the narrative fails to translate into price movement.2026-03-06 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see stabilization as narrative pressures around AI server demand continue to play a role, despite recent repricing. Watch for potential improvements in relative performance.2026-03-09 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state, coupled with strong narrative support from AI server demand, suggests a positive trajectory in the near term. Expect continued momentum as the market aligns with the narrative.2026-03-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With the current early state and positive narrative around AI server demand, SMCI is positioned for a bullish trajectory over the next couple of months. The partnership with VAST Data also supports growth expectations.2026-03-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing pressures as the narrative around AI server demand stabilizes. With a declining narrative score and negative relative return, caution is warranted.2026-03-12 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is likely to experience continued repricing as it aligns with the narrative of AI server demand, despite recent volatility. The current state indicates a mix of positive momentum and potential headwinds from relative performance.2026-03-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued repricing pressures as the narrative around AI server demand struggles to translate into positive price momentum. Watch for potential stabilization if narrative conditions improve.2026-03-16 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a potential continuation of the bullish momentum due to strong AI server demand and a successful partnership with VAST Data. Expect price stabilization and gradual upward movement in the near term.2026-03-17 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing suggests a consolidation phase, but the strong narrative around AI server demand indicates potential for upward momentum in the coming months. Expect a gradual recovery as market perceptions align with fundamentals.2026-03-18 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see stabilization as pricing adjusts to align with strong narrative support from AI server demand and the VAST Data partnership. A potential shift in momentum could occur if the narrative strengthens further.2026-03-19 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — As SMCI navigates a repricing phase, the narrative around AI server demand remains strong. However, recent fluctuations in relative performance indicate potential volatility in the near term.2026-03-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the narrative around AI server demand remains strong, but pricing is not reflecting this strength. A potential recovery could occur if the market begins to align with the narrative.2026-03-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on SMCI's pricing as the narrative around AI server demand fails to translate into positive market performance. The divergence indicates a struggle to align with market expectations.2026-03-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on SMCI's stock due to persistent divergence and negative relative performance despite strong narrative around AI server demand. The market does not appear to be fully valuing these strengths.2026-03-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price weakness as narrative strength fails to translate into positive returns. Market sentiment appears to be firmly against SMCI despite solid AI server demand.2026-03-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around AI server demand and partnerships, SMCI's price continues to lag significantly behind expectations. The divergence trend indicates persistent bearish pressure in the near term.2026-03-27 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a confirmed state and a positive relative return, SMCI is positioned to benefit from ongoing AI server demand. Expect further price appreciation in the coming months as the narrative gains traction.2026-03-30 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates a potential for price recovery as SMCI's narrative around AI server demand and partnerships gains traction. However, recent divergences suggest caution as the market may still be assessing the sustainability of this upward movement.2026-03-31 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the early state and positive narrative around AI server demand, SMCI is likely to maintain its upward trajectory in the next couple of months. The partnership with VAST Data could further bolster this growth.2026-04-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may continue to see downward pressure as the narrative around AI server demand fails to translate into price appreciation. The divergence state suggests that despite positive sentiment, market reactions remain muted.2026-04-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a narrative score of 95 and a positive NDS, SMCI is positioned for potential growth in the AI infrastructure sector. The current early state suggests a continuation of upward momentum over the next couple of months.2026-04-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests continued repricing as the market adjusts to the strong narrative of AI server demand, though the relative performance has been lagging. Expect potential volatility as the narrative stabilizes.2026-04-07 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With the early state and positive narrative around AI server demand, SMCI is positioned for potential upward movement in the next couple of months. The recent partnership with VAST Data could further bolster this trajectory.2026-04-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price lagging against a strong narrative backdrop of AI server demand, as the repricing phase persists amidst sector-wide pressures.2026-04-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With the current state indicating repricing amidst a strong narrative, SMCI faces continued downward pressure in the next 1-2 months. The divergence from price suggests challenges in translating positive sentiment into market performance.2026-04-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The actor shows early signs of recovery in price, but remains under pressure from broader sector trends. A cautious optimism exists as narrative strength persists despite recent price divergence.2026-04-13 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, SMCI may continue to experience volatility as market pressures from the broader software cohort impact sentiment. However, strong AI server demand and the VAST Data partnership could provide some resilience.2026-04-14 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Despite confirmed demand for AI servers and a partnership with VAST Data, recent price pressure reflects broader sector challenges. Expect volatility as the market assesses the sustainability of SMCI's growth.2026-04-15 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The outlook remains cautiously optimistic as SMCI confirms its narrative amidst a backdrop of mixed peer performance. Expect stability in the near term, but watch for potential shifts depending on broader market dynamics.2026-04-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued challenges as structural pressures persist, despite a narrative of strong AI server demand. The confirmed state indicates a need for caution.2026-04-17 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The confirmed state and positive narrative suggest continued strength in the near term, driven by AI server demand and recent partnerships. Expect moderate upward movement as the market aligns with the positive narrative.2026-04-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With confirmed structural strength and positive narrative around AI server demand, SMCI is positioned for continued growth in the near term. The positive relative return indicates market support for the upward trajectory.2026-04-21 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — With a narrative reinforcing AI server demand and a positive trajectory, SMCI is positioned for potential upward movement. However, the broader divergence patterns in the sector indicate caution in sustaining momentum.2026-04-22 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is likely to experience continued volatility as it stabilizes from recent divergence, with narrative strength not yet fully translating into price movement. The early state suggests potential for gradual improvement if AI server demand continues to ga2026-04-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are expected to remain challenging as strong narrative around AI server demand fails to translate into price appreciation, consistent with the divergence observed. This trend suggests continued price pressure despite positive market signals.2026-04-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is likely to experience volatility as it navigates a repricing phase, balancing strong narrative support against recent relative underperformance. Continued focus on AI server demand could provide upward momentum despite current pricing challenges.2026-04-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price pressure as narrative strength fails to translate into positive price movement. Divergence from peers suggests a challenging environment for recovery.2026-04-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around AI server demand and partnerships, SMCI's price remains under pressure, indicating a bearish continuation in the near term. The divergence trend suggests ongoing challenges in translating narrative strength into price performance.2026-04-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around AI server demand and partnerships, SMCI's price continues to lag significantly. The divergence state indicates ongoing challenges in translating positive developments into price appreciation over the next month or two.2026-04-30 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is likely to experience a continued repricing as the market adjusts to ongoing AI server demand, albeit with caution due to recent divergence in relative performance. The strength of the VAST Data partnership may provide some support.2026-05-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates continued price weakness despite strong narrative support from AI server demand. Expect further challenges in aligning narrative with price action over the next couple of months.2026-05-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates a continued repricing phase, with narrative support around AI server demand but facing relative underperformance. Expect potential further price adjustments in the next couple of months.2026-05-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is likely to continue experiencing repricing as the narrative around AI server demand remains strong but fails to translate into positive price movement. The divergence in performance compared to peers suggests ongoing challenges.2026-05-06 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is expected to maintain a positive trajectory driven by confirmed demand for AI infrastructure, despite broader sector pressures. The recent confirmed state indicates resilience against narrative dislocation.2026-05-07 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The confirmed state indicates that SMCI is likely to maintain its positive trajectory in the near term, supported by strong AI server demand and a favorable narrative. Price may continue to reflect this narrative, despite some recent volatility.2026-05-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and a positive relative return, SMCI is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing demand for AI servers. Despite recent narrative dislocation, the overall trajectory suggests continued strength in the near term.2026-05-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite strong narrative support around AI server demand, SMCI is experiencing significant price pressure. The confirmed state indicates a challenging environment ahead, with potential continued divergence from narrative expectations.2026-05-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite strong narrative support around AI server demand and partnerships, the current divergence and negative narrative dislocation suggest continued headwinds for SMCI's price performance in the near term. A cautious approach is warranted as structural challenges persist.2026-05-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The divergence state suggests continued pressure on SMCI's price despite strong narrative support from AI server demand. Expect limited upward movement as the market remains skeptical.2026-05-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite strong narrative around AI server demand and partnerships, SMCI is facing a divergence with price action underperforming. Expect continued pressure in the near term as the market sentiment remains cautious.2026-05-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The 1-2 month outlook indicates continued divergence as the strong narrative around AI server demand fails to translate into price movement. Expect further challenges as the market reassesses SMCI's valuation against its peers.2026-05-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence suggests continued difficulty in translating positive narrative into price movement. Expect further price weakness over the next month as the disconnect persists.2026-05-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around AI server demand and a partnership with VAST Data, SMCI has been unable to translate this into price gains, as indicated by its negative relative return of -8.37% and a high positive NDS of +56.8. The divergence pattern suggests continued underpe2026-05-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — SMCI continues to experience a divergence where the positive narrative of AI server demand and the VAST Data partnership fails to translate into price appreciation. Despite a strong narrative dislocation score of +36.6, SMCI's relative return is negative, indicating a persistent 2026-05-21 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — SMCI has recently shifted from a divergence state to a more bullish early state, with AI server demand and the VAST Data partnership acting as key drivers. The company's ability to maintain price leadership indicates potential for further gains in the next 1-2 months, as the mark2026-05-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — SMCI is currently experiencing a narrative dislocation, with the price leading the story as indicated by a negative NDS of -13.2. Despite strong AI server demand and the VAST Data partnership, the stock is moving with the broader market tape. This suggests potential volatility in2026-05-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — SMCI is currently experiencing a price-led state, with its stock price significantly ahead of the narrative. The strong demand for AI servers and its partnership with VAST Data are driving short-term gains. The NDS of -70.0 suggests that the price is leading the narrative, indica2026-05-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — SMCI's stock price has moved significantly ahead of its narrative, driven by heightened expectations around AI server demand and the VAST Data partnership. Despite the recent price gains, there is a risk of a pullback as the narrative has not kept pace, leading to a negative NDS.2026-05-28 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.70 — SMCI's current state with price ahead of the story suggests that its AI server demand narrative, bolstered by the VAST Data partnership, is not yet fully embedded in its valuation. Given the strong relative return of +16.8%, this momentum may continue in the short term as investo2026-05-29 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — SMCI's recent price surge, driven by speculative demand for AI servers, has outpaced its narrative strength, as indicated by a consistently negative NDS. The company's partnership with VAST Data could reinforce its narrative, potentially realigning the stock's trajectory if execu2026-05-31 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — SMCI is currently experiencing a strong price-led rally, driven by robust AI server demand and its partnership with VAST Data, resulting in a +20.3% relative return over the broad tape. The narrative has struggled to keep pace with the price, as reflected by the negative NDS, ind2026-06-01 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — SMCI's price momentum has surged ahead of its AI server demand narrative, with a significant NDS of -174.1 indicating price leading the story. The company's relative return of +34.4% over the broad tape suggests strong investor confidence in its potential despite a cooling narrat
Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-26FIRST
bearish cont.0.65
“In the next 1-2 months, SMCI is likely to experience continued downward pressure as the positive narrative around AI server demand fails to translate into price appreciation. The divergence state suggests that the market is not rewarding the narrative adequately.”
2026-01-05
bearish cont.0.70
“The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the market adjusts to AI server demand narratives. While the partnership with VAST Data adds potential, the current negative relative return indicates pressure.”
2026-02-11
mixed rot.0.40
“The next couple of months may see continued divergence as the narrative around AI server demand remains strong, but the relative performance is lagging. Investors should monitor for any shifts in momentum.”
2026-03-19
mixed rot.0.65
“As SMCI navigates a repricing phase, the narrative around AI server demand remains strong. However, recent fluctuations in relative performance indicate potential volatility in the near term.”
2026-04-27
bearish cont.0.70
“The next 1-2 months may see continued price pressure as narrative strength fails to translate into positive price movement. Divergence from peers suggests a challenging environment for recovery.”
2026-06-01TODAY
bullish cont.0.70
“SMCI's price momentum has surged ahead of its AI server demand narrative, with a significant NDS of -174.1 indicating price leading the story. The company's relative return of +34.4% over the broad tape suggests strong investor confidence in its potential despite a cooling narrat”
L3Expectation Lifecycle FieldBUILT V1

Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.

addsTurns SMCI's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today54 theses tracked over the window; 2 active today, 0 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 54 · strengthened 1 · weakened 1 · contradicted 15 · retired 57.
SMCI’s expectation theses29 theses shown · 54 total
↑Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
●✕○
↓Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
●○
↓AI-driven growth and stock performance
●
─AI-driven growth and stock performance
●○
↓AI investment strategies for 2026
●✕○
↑AI investment strategies for 2026
●✕
↓Tech giants navigate AI and regulation
●○
↓AI Integration and Investment Trends
●○
─Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
●○
↓Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
●○
─AI investment strategies and market outlook
●▼▲○
↓AI investment strategies and market outlook
●✕○○
↑AI investment strategies and market outlook
●✕○
↑Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
●✕✕
↓Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
●✕○○
─Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
●○
↓Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
●✕✕✕
↑Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
●✕✕○
─Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
●○
↓AI efficiency breakthroughs and innovations
●○
↑Earnings season pressures software valuations
●✕○
─AI efficiency breakthroughs and innovations
●○
─AI chip market dynamics and trends
●
↓Alphabet's growth and investment potential
●○
↓AI investment and workforce dynamics
●○
↑Netflix stock volatility and investor sentiment
●○
↓Micron stock momentum and forecasts
●○
↓AI-driven chip market dynamics
●○
↓Super Micro Computer volatility and challenges
●✕
●born▲strengthened▼weakened✕contradicted○retired
2025-11-26FIRST
quiet
2026-01-05
✕contradicted
1 active thesis
2026-02-11
○retired
▼weakened
2 active theses
2026-03-19
3 active theses
2026-04-27
●born
1 active thesis
2026-06-01TODAY
quiet
L4Performance FieldBUILT V1

Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.

addsCloses the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
todaySystem-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. SMCI appears in 20 public regions and 11 limited, including 4 inverted.
SMCI appears in 42 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · directionsample5d hit20d hitactors
↓Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
n=65
55% (+8pp)
55% (+6pp)
17
↓Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
n=61
51% (+3pp)
43% (-7pp)
19
↓Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
n=48
54% (+6pp)
63% (+13pp)
16
↑Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
n=48
58% (+10pp)
54% (+5pp)
11
↓AI investment strategies and market outlook
n=45
44% (-3pp)
27% (-23pp)
18
↓Tech giants navigate AI and regulation
n=40
65% (+17pp)
53% (+3pp)
15
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).
FEEDBACKL4 measurements close back to upstream layersVISION

F-007 V1 measures region performance. The feedback loop itself is still V2: realized outcomes do not yet re-weight upstream conviction, source trust, or lifecycle thresholds. The current state machine uses static rules. For SMCI, this is where the system would learn that — for instance — its winter bullish run on AI-infrastructure narratives held, or that today’s bearish read deserves more / less weight than its conviction suggests.

L4→L2
Conviction calibration
Re-weight L2 conviction by horizon, theme, and direction based on realized outcomes.
L4→L1
Source / actor trust
Re-weight L1 inputs by historical predictive value of each source and actor.
L4→L3
Lifecycle thresholds
Tune L3 Δconviction cutoffs and retirement-window length to match realized outcome dynamics.
Status legend
BUILTBUILT / SHADOW VALIDATEDBUILT V1SCOPED / F-007VISION
BUILT — in production today. BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED — computed daily, not yet promoted into the state machine. BUILT V1 — first cut shipped; V2 followups on roadmap. SCOPED / F-007 — spec written, not started. VISION — load-bearing later, no spec yet.
Rendered from public/actor_trace/SMCI.json — a per-actor join of the L0 event corpus, L1 field instrumentation, L2 expectations history, and L3 lifecycle artifacts. Updates each evening pipeline run when build_actor_trace.py --all runs. For compute details: /methods. The same five-layer shape also powers the governance instance; on why this pattern recurs across domains, see a pattern for problems where beliefs must evolve.