L0 Event Field BUILT
Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.
adds Captures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming NVDA, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today 6,426 events naming NVDA in the 132-day window where every layer has coverage (8,716 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming NVDA 6,426 total · peak 241 on 03-17
Peak day sample: “Tech Weekly: Nvidia's eye watering outlook, military-ready humanoid robots”
Minor gaps 10 of 132 days in this window had zero events for NVDA — longest gap 4 consecutive days. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
L1 Narrative Field BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED
Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.
adds Places NVDA inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
today Primary cluster: “nvidia / nvda / just” . Density (7d): 0.170 (momentum +0.013 , novelty 0.34 ). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
NVDA’s primary cluster over time 108 distinct clusters · 113 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2026-01-02
AI investment strategies for 2026
1d in this narrative
2026-02-10
AI investment strategies and market outlook
5d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
6d in this narrative
2026-04-27
AI stock market dynamics and trends
36d in this narrative
L2 Expectation Field BUILT V1
Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.
adds Turns NVDA's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
today Latest: bearish continuation at conviction 0.70 . “Despite a strong narrative around AI infrastructure, NVDA's pricing power is under pressure due to competition from custom silicon such as TPU and Trainium. This, coupled with hyperscalers' capex discipline, suggests continued downward pressure on NVDA's price. The positive narra”
NVDA’s daily expectation 130 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests continued pricing pressure as the market grapples with the narrative of AI infrastructure growth not translating into price advancements. Given the current repricing state, NVDA may struggle to regain momentum in the short term. 2025-11-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current repricing state and the narrative lag, NVDA is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term. The strong narrative around AI infrastructure is not translating into price performance, suggesting a challenging environment ahead. 2025-11-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates a continued struggle for NVDA to translate positive narratives into price gains in the coming months. Expect ongoing volatility influenced by hyperscaler capex discipline and export controls affecting China exposure. 2025-11-28 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as NVDA grapples with narrative divergence and pricing pressures, especially in light of its exposure to the China market. A potential shift in narrative could provide a catalyst for recovery. 2025-12-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to face continued pricing pressure as market sentiment adjusts to the impacts of export controls and competition in AI infrastructure. The narrative surrounding its market share erosion in China may further weigh on performance. 2025-12-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the market adjusts to the narrative surrounding AI infrastructure and the impacts of export controls on its China exposure. The repricing state suggests persistent caution among investors. 2025-12-03 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests a potential stabilization as narratives around AI infrastructure buildout continue to support demand. However, challenges in the China market and hyperscaler capex discipline may lead to volatility in the near term. 2025-12-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the near term, NVDA may continue to face repricing pressures as market dynamics shift, particularly with the erosion of market share in China and challenges in hyperscaler capex. The narrative around AI infrastructure remains strong but is not translating into immediate price 2025-12-05 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As of now, NVDA shows early signs of positive momentum driven by strong narrative support around AI infrastructure. The pricing power and ramp economics are likely to sustain upward trajectory despite pressures from China market share erosion. 2025-12-08 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the unclear state suggests potential for both positive and negative developments, particularly amid ongoing pressures in the China market. The narrative around AI infrastructure remains strong but is tempered by recent pricing dynamics an 2025-12-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests continued volatility as NVDA navigates pricing pressures while facing challenges from the China market. The emphasis on AI infrastructure may provide support, but export controls could hinder growth. 2025-12-10 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the unclear state suggests mixed signals in market sentiment, particularly with respect to AI infrastructure investments and challenges in the China market. Caution is advised as pricing power remains under scrutiny. 2025-12-11 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The current structural state indicates a lack of follow-through, with narrative pressure remaining weak. In the near term, NVDA may continue facing challenges as market participants evaluate the implications of China market share erosion and hyperscaler capex discipline. 2025-12-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — Given the unclear state and recent narrative decline, NVDA is likely to experience volatility in the next 1-2 months, with potential for either a positive shift or continued pressure from external factors. 2025-12-15 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty for NVDA as the narrative around AI infrastructure struggles to translate into positive price action. The ongoing divergence in the semiconductor sector suggests a lack of strong momentum. 2025-12-16 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued indecision as narrative strength fails to align with price action, particularly given the challenges in the China market and hyperscaler capex discipline. Watch for signs of stabilization or further divergence. 2025-12-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative around AI infrastructure fails to translate into price gains, with persistent China market share concerns. The repricing state suggests caution as momentum remains weak. 2025-12-18 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty with potential volatility as market perceptions around AI infrastructure and China exposure remain conflicted. A lack of narrative follow-through could lead to further price stagnation. 2025-12-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the coming months, NVDA may face continued pricing pressures due to a narrative shift towards AI infrastructure and challenges in the China market. This could lead to a bearish sentiment as the stock is currently price-led with a dislocated narrative score. 2025-12-22 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to face continued pressure due to narrative dislocation and exposure to China market challenges, despite its pricing power. The trajectory suggests a cautious approach as the market reassesses the stock's fundamentals. 2025-12-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is expected to see cautious price movements as early gains are observed, influenced by ongoing narrative pressures surrounding AI infrastructure and market share dynamics in China. The structural state suggests potential volatility as investors weigh 2025-12-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a negative narrative dislocation score and price-led state, NVDA may face continued downward pressure in the near term. The market's focus on pricing power versus custom silicon is essential as hyperscaler capex discipline persists. 2025-12-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — Given the confirmed state and strong narrative around AI infrastructure, NVDA is likely to maintain upward momentum in the next 1-2 months. However, the potential erosion of market share in China may introduce some volatility. 2025-12-29 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a potential bullish continuation as pricing power and demand for AI infrastructure support growth. However, caution is warranted due to external factors like China market share erosion. 2025-12-30 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural indicators suggest a continued bullish trajectory for NVDA as it capitalizes on AI infrastructure demand, despite potential headwinds from China market dynamics. Expect price stability and gradual upward movement in the coming months. 2025-12-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to experience a continuation of the repricing phase, driven by ongoing AI infrastructure demands but tempered by market share challenges in China. The path forward may involve volatility as investors assess the impact of export controls. 2026-01-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are expected to see continued positive momentum as the narrative around AI infrastructure builds. The pricing power and ramp economics appear to support a bullish outlook despite potential challenges in the China market. 2026-01-05 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — As of early January 2026, Nvidia is experiencing a repricing phase with narrative stability but lagging relative performance. Expect volatility as market sentiment adjusts to the implications of AI infrastructure developments and geopolitical factors. 2026-01-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to face continued pricing pressures as the market grapples with the realities of its narrative underperformance, particularly in the context of China market share erosion and hyperscaler capex discipline. 2026-01-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the coming months, NVDA is likely to continue facing pricing pressures as the market shifts focus to commodity names, which may erode its recent narrative strength despite positive NDS. The ongoing China market share concerns could further dampen sentiment. 2026-01-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative of AI infrastructure is not translating into price gains, amid broader commodity leadership in the sector. The potential for further pricing power may not be sufficient to counteract the 2026-01-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around AI infrastructure builds but faces headwinds from China market share erosion. Price action has been mixed, showing signs of uncertainty. 2026-01-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around AI infrastructure, NVDA's price is lagging significantly. Expect continued repricing pressure in the near term as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-01-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the unclear state and negative narrative dislocation, NVDA is likely to face continued price pressure in the near term. The erosion of market share in China and hyperscaler capex discipline may hinder recovery efforts. 2026-01-14 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months are likely to remain volatile as the market grapples with unclear narratives and pricing dynamics. Continued scrutiny on China's data-center revenue exposure may weigh on sentiment. 2026-01-15 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative remains unclear and recent price movements suggest a lack of strong conviction. The pressure from China market share erosion could weigh on performance. 2026-01-16 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the narrative around AI infrastructure buildout faces headwinds from China market exposure and pricing pressures. The unclear state suggests a cautious approach is warranted. 2026-01-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA may continue to face challenges from repricing pressures, particularly as it navigates its exposure to the China market. The narrative around AI infrastructure remains strong, but pricing power could be tested by hyperscaler capex discipline. 2026-01-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as narrative strength does not translate into price movement, especially with pressures from China market share erosion. Caution is warranted as hyperscaler capex discipline may limit upside. 2026-01-22 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued uncertainty for NVDA as the AI infrastructure narrative struggles to translate into positive price movement, particularly with emerging competition and geopolitical pressures. A shift in narrative clarity may be needed for a rebound 2026-01-23 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — Given the unclear state and recent narrative pressure, NVDA may face continued volatility in the near term. The narrative around AI infrastructure is strong, but external factors like China market share erosion could weigh heavily on performance. 2026-01-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty as narrative pressures weigh on price performance, particularly with concerns over market share erosion in China. A potential inflection point could emerge if pricing power stabilizes. 2026-01-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA may face continued pressure as the narrative around AI infrastructure struggles to translate into price gains, exacerbated by concerns over China market share and export controls. 2026-01-28 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, NVDA is in an early state with a mixed narrative surrounding AI infrastructure amid pressures from China market share erosion. The next 1-2 months could see volatility as the market evaluates its pricing power and exposure to geopolitical risks. 2026-01-29 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a robust narrative around AI infrastructure and improving price dynamics, NVDA is poised for continued upward momentum in the next couple of months. The early state classification suggests that the price may further align with the narrative strengths observed. 2026-01-30 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As of now, NVDA is positioned for continued upward momentum driven by strong narrative around AI infrastructure, despite challenges from China market share erosion. The early state suggests potential for price appreciation in the coming months. 2026-02-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on NVDA's stock, with narrative strength not translating into price gains. Expect potential stabilization as the market digests the implications of AI infrastructure and geopolitical factors. 2026-02-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — NVDA is expected to face continued price pressure as the narrative around AI infrastructure buildout struggles to translate into positive price movement. The ongoing erosion of market share in China may further exacerbate this trend in the near term. 2026-02-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued repricing pressure, with narrative strength not translating into price performance. Expect further volatility as market sentiment adjusts to the ongoing challenges in the semiconductor space. 2026-02-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, NVDA is expected to continue facing price pressure despite a strong narrative around AI infrastructure. The divergence indicates that the positive outlook is not being reflected in the stock's performance. 2026-02-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests continued repricing pressures as the narrative of AI infrastructure buildout struggles to translate into positive price action. The uncertainty surrounding China market share and export controls adds to the bearish sentiment. 2026-02-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA may experience further price fluctuations as the narrative around AI infrastructure faces headwinds from market dynamics and competitive pressures. The current price-led state suggests a potential for volatility without clear upward momentum. 2026-02-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The near-term outlook suggests continued bearish pressure as narrative dislocation persists, indicating that market expectations may not align with structural fundamentals. The price-led state reflects a disconnect that could lead to further volatility. 2026-02-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, NVDA is likely to experience fluctuations influenced by its pricing power and market dynamics. While the narrative remains strong, challenges in the China market could pose risks. 2026-02-12 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and a positive narrative, NVDA is poised for a bullish continuation in the near term, supported by strong pricing power and demand from AI infrastructure. However, caution is warranted due to potential pressures from export controls affecting the China mark 2026-02-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The outlook suggests a cautious approach as NVDA is currently in a repricing phase, with narrative pressures from AI infrastructure and market share issues in China. A potential stabilization could emerge if pricing power is maintained amidst hyperscaler capex discipline. 2026-02-17 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next couple of months, NVDA's pricing power will be tested as the market adjusts to ongoing AI infrastructure demands. The stock may continue to experience volatility as it grapples with narrative pressures and relative performance against benchmarks. 2026-02-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates a continued repricing phase, with narrative strength not translating into price movement. Expect volatility but a bearish tilt as the market digests the implications of narrative versus pricing power. 2026-02-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to maintain its upward trajectory as the narrative around AI infrastructure buildout remains strong, despite concerns over China market share. The repricing state suggests a potential for continued gains. 2026-02-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates continued pricing power and a robust narrative around AI infrastructure, suggesting potential for further gains in the near term. However, caution is advised due to potential impacts from China market share erosion. 2026-02-23 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current structural state indicates a positive momentum building for NVDA, with early signs of price recovery following a period of repricing. The strong narrative around AI infrastructure may support further gains in the coming months. 2026-02-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Given the strong narrative around AI infrastructure and the current early state, NVDA is expected to continue its upward trajectory over the next couple of months, driven by its pricing power and demand in hyperscaler capex. However, caution is warranted due to potential impacts 2026-02-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the strong narrative around AI infrastructure and positive NDS, NVDA appears poised for continued growth in the coming months. However, caution is warranted due to potential challenges in the China market. 2026-02-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests a cautious outlook in the near term, as market sentiment reflects a lag in price relative to the strong narrative of AI infrastructure buildout. However, potential recovery could emerge if pricing dynamics stabilize. 2026-02-27 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA may experience volatility as the market grapples with its narrative strength against relative performance. The divergence suggests potential challenges in sustaining momentum amid external pressures. 2026-03-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to face continued pressure as the divergence between narrative strength and relative performance persists. The erosion of market share in China and hyperscaler capex discipline may weigh on sentiment. 2026-03-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural divergence suggests continued pressure on NVDA's price despite a strong narrative around AI infrastructure. Expect limited upside in the near term as investor sentiment remains cautious. 2026-03-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price weakness as the narrative around AI infrastructure fails to translate into positive price action. The divergence indicates a strong disconnect between narrative strength and market response. 2026-03-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state indicates ongoing challenges in translating positive narratives into price movements. Expect continued pressure as market dynamics remain unfavorable. 2026-03-06 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural state indicates a strengthening narrative around AI infrastructure, suggesting a bullish trajectory in the coming months. Continued focus on pricing power and hyperscaler capex will be crucial for sustaining momentum. 2026-03-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to experience a mixed trajectory as it continues to navigate a repricing phase driven by AI infrastructure developments while facing challenges in the China market. The narrative remains strong, but pricing dynamics may limit upward moment 2026-03-10 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to experience volatility as it navigates between early growth and repricing pressures. The narrative around AI infrastructure remains strong, but external factors, particularly in the China market, could impact performance. 2026-03-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see NVDA's price stabilize as it balances strong narrative support against potential market pressures, particularly from China exposure. Continued pricing power and hyperscaler capex discipline will be critical. 2026-03-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural indicators suggest a potential stabilization in the near term, but caution is warranted given recent divergence patterns. Continued focus on AI infrastructure could support a positive trajectory if hyperscaler spending remains disciplined. 2026-03-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, NVDA is positioned in an early state with a strong narrative surrounding AI infrastructure. However, recent pricing dynamics indicate potential volatility, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook over the next couple of months. 2026-03-16 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of this date, NVDA is positioned in an early state with a strong narrative around AI infrastructure, but facing challenges in China market share. The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the market assesses the impact of export controls and hyperscaler capex discipline. 2026-03-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA's pricing dynamics may continue to adjust as the market assesses the implications of AI infrastructure investments and geopolitical challenges. A cautious approach is warranted given recent narrative stability but potential for volatility. 2026-03-18 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests potential stabilization as the repricing state holds, yet persistent narrative pressures from market share erosion in China could lead to volatility. Watch for hyperscaler capex trends as a significant determinant. 2026-03-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pricing pressures as the narrative surrounding AI infrastructure builds out but faces headwinds from China market share erosion. The repricing state indicates a cautious approach from investors. 2026-03-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to continue under pressure as narrative factors point to ongoing repricing amidst concerns over market share erosion in China. The elevated NDS indicates some resilience, but the negative relative performance suggests a challenging environme 2026-03-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests potential volatility as pricing power is challenged by market share erosion in China. While narrative strength remains, the repricing state indicates caution ahead. 2026-03-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to experience continued repricing as it balances strong narrative momentum in AI infrastructure with pressures from market share erosion in China. The trajectory may be volatile as hyperscaler capex discipline plays out. 2026-03-25 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA may continue to experience pricing pressures as the narrative surrounding AI infrastructure remains strong but is not translating into price performance. The ongoing competition from commodity names could further impact sentiment. 2026-03-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to continue facing downward price pressure despite a robust narrative around AI infrastructure, particularly due to market share erosion in China and ongoing repricing challenges. 2026-03-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to continue experiencing pricing challenges despite a strong narrative around AI infrastructure. The recent repricing indicates a struggle to align price with the positive narrative. 2026-03-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on NVDA's stock despite a strong narrative around AI infrastructure. The divergence from peers indicates a challenging environment for price appreciation over the next month or two. 2026-03-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to experience continued pricing pressure as the market adjusts to the narrative surrounding AI infrastructure and Chinese market dynamics. However, the strong narrative score suggests potential for stabilization and gradual recovery if hyper 2026-04-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Given the current repricing state and ongoing narrative pressure, NVDA is likely to experience continued downward price pressures in the near term. The divergence with the strong AI infrastructure narrative suggests potential challenges in gaining traction. 2026-04-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — As NVDA enters an early state, the recent narrative pressures suggest a cautious outlook. While there is potential for price recovery, challenges in the China market and hyperscaler capex discipline may limit upside in the near term. 2026-04-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Given the ongoing repricing state, NVDA's stock may continue to face downward pressure as market sentiment adjusts. The narrative around AI infrastructure buildout remains strong, but China market share erosion could weigh on performance. 2026-04-07 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The structural picture suggests a cautious bullish outlook as price dynamics begin to stabilize, but ongoing pressures from the China market and hyperscaler capex discipline may create volatility. Expect gradual momentum building over the next couple of months. 2026-04-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pricing pressures as the narrative around AI infrastructure buildout struggles to translate into price movement. The ongoing export controls affecting China could further dampen revenue expectations. 2026-04-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next couple of months, NVDA is likely to face continued price pressure due to the prevailing narrative around AI disruption and potential market share erosion in China. The repricing state suggests a struggle to align narrative strength with price performance. 2026-04-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The recent early state suggests a potential for price recovery as the AI infrastructure narrative gains traction, despite challenges in the China market. Continued focus on pricing power and hyperscaler capex may support upward momentum in the coming months. 2026-04-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, NVDA is positioned in an early state with positive narrative momentum, indicating potential for upward price movement. However, caution is warranted due to broader sector pressures and ongoing uncertainties in the China market. 2026-04-14 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, NVDA is in an early state of price adjustment, with positive relative return but under pressure from broader AI-related narrative shifts. The next 1-2 months may see cautious optimism as it navigates hyperscaler capex discipline and potential impacts from China market 2026-04-15 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — As of now, NVDA's trajectory shows early signs of growth, although the narrative around AI infrastructure and China market share poses risks. Expect a cautious upward movement with potential volatility. 2026-04-16 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see NVDA stabilize as it navigates early growth amidst pressures from export controls and market share challenges in China. The recent positive trajectory suggests potential for upward momentum but requires careful monitoring. 2026-04-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA may continue to experience repricing pressures, particularly due to concerns over China market share erosion and hyperscaler capex discipline. The narrative remains strong, but price action suggests a cautious outlook. 2026-04-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The actor is in an early state with a positive narrative score, suggesting potential for upward momentum in the coming months. However, pricing challenges and competitive dynamics in the semiconductor space may create volatility. 2026-04-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pricing pressure as the narrative around AI infrastructure fails to translate into positive price action. The ongoing erosion of market share in China adds to the concerns. 2026-04-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price challenges as NVDA faces narrative headwinds and market share erosion in China. Structural pressures indicate a bearish outlook amid a broader sector rotation. 2026-04-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to continue facing headwinds as the narrative around AI infrastructure builds fails to translate into price gains. The ongoing repricing suggests a cautious market sentiment, particularly given the pressures from export controls impacting Ch 2026-04-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to face continued pricing pressure as the narrative around AI infrastructure builds out, yet concerns over market share erosion in China may dampen growth prospects. Recent repricing suggests a cautious outlook. 2026-04-27 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — As NVDA enters an early state, the price is starting to follow the narrative, but with significant pressure from the broader semiconductor landscape. The upcoming months may see volatility as the market assesses the impact of AI infrastructure developments and China market challe 2026-04-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As NVDA's price begins to align with its strong narrative around AI infrastructure, expect a gradual upward trajectory, supported by improving market conditions despite challenges in China. The positive narrative pressure suggests potential for sustained price recovery in the com 2026-04-29 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With the current early state and positive narrative, NVIDIA is likely to continue building on recent momentum in the coming months. The market's responsiveness to AI infrastructure growth could support upward price movement. 2026-04-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, NVDA is likely to face continued pricing pressures as the market reassesses its valuation against the backdrop of AI infrastructure demands and geopolitical challenges. The narrative remains strong, but the repricing state suggests caution. 2026-05-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the strong narrative around AI infrastructure struggles to translate into price performance, particularly in light of China market challenges and a divergence from peers. 2026-05-04 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Given the current divergence and high narrative dislocation score, NVDA may face continued volatility in the near term. The erosion of market share in China and hyperscaler capex discipline will heavily influence the stock's trajectory. 2026-05-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current divergence indicates ongoing price weakness despite a robust narrative around AI infrastructure. Expect continued pressure in the near term as market sentiment struggles to align with the underlying story. 2026-05-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence suggests continued price pressure in the face of strong narrative support for AI infrastructure. Expect challenges in maintaining momentum as market sentiment remains cautious, particularly with exposure to the China market. 2026-05-07 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — NVDA is experiencing early signs of price stabilization, but remains under pressure from a broader narrative shift in the semiconductor space. The outlook suggests a cautious recovery, though challenges persist from competition and market dynamics. 2026-05-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The early state suggests continued price pressure as narrative strength fails to translate into positive price movements, particularly in the context of hardware leadership shifting away from AI-infrastructure names. Expect further divergence as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-05-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates continued price pressure as narrative strength fails to translate into price gains. Expect a challenging environment over the next couple of months as market dynamics shift. 2026-05-12 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and strong narrative support, NVDA is positioned for continued upward momentum in the near term, despite recent divergence pressures. The pricing power and AI infrastructure demand could drive positive sentiment. 2026-05-13 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Despite a strong narrative around AI infrastructure and solid NDS, NVDA's price performance has been inconsistent, suggesting potential volatility. Expect a cautious approach in the near term as market sentiment stabilizes. 2026-05-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite confirming a strong narrative around AI infrastructure, NVDA's price performance is under pressure, reflecting broader sector challenges and market skepticism. Expect continued volatility with potential for further price dislocation. 2026-05-15 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — With confirmed structural indicators and a strong narrative around AI infrastructure, NVDA may face challenges as broader market divergences persist. A potential inflection point is anticipated as the narrative seeks to regain pricing momentum. 2026-05-18 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With the narrative around AI infrastructure remaining strong and early signs of price recovery emerging, NVDA is poised for a positive trajectory in the coming months. However, continued scrutiny regarding China market exposure may temper gains. 2026-05-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — NVIDIA's price movement is beginning to align with its strong AI infrastructure narrative, a contrast to peers like AMD and SNDK whose narratives are not translating into price gains. NVIDIA's early state suggests its pricing power in AI and data center markets is being recognize 2026-05-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — NVIDIA's narrative on AI infrastructure is beginning to drive its stock price, evidenced by a return to an 'early' state with a positive NDS of +33.2 and relative return of +2.35%. This suggests a bullish continuation as Blackwell ramp economics and pricing power bolster its comp 2026-05-21 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — NVIDIA is experiencing a repricing phase where its strong AI narrative is not translating into price gains, as evidenced by its negative relative performance and high narrative dislocation score. The key issue remains the economics of Blackwell ramp against custom silicon solutio 2026-05-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — NVIDIA's current divergence state, with a high narrative dislocation score, suggests the market is not fully pricing in its AI infrastructure narrative. The company's ongoing Blackwell ramp and its competitive pricing power against custom silicon solutions like TPU and Trainium a 2026-05-25 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.70 — NVDA's narrative strength, driven by the AI infrastructure buildout, is not yet reflected in its price performance, which has been hindered by hyperscaler capex discipline. Despite a positive NDS of +34.2, indicating narrative leadership, the stock's relative return remains negat 2026-05-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — NVDA is currently experiencing a divergence where its narrative around AI infrastructure and the Blackwell ramp is not being reflected in its stock price, evidenced by a strong positive NDS of +73.2 yet a negative relative return of -5.65%. This suggests that while the story is c 2026-05-28 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — NVIDIA's narrative strength, driven by AI infrastructure demand, is not translating into price performance, as hyperscaler capex discipline and China market challenges weigh heavily. This divergence is likely to persist unless there is clarity on Blackwell's competitive positioni 2026-05-29 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — NVIDIA's strong AI infrastructure narrative continues to lead its market valuation, as evidenced by a high narrative dislocation score of +81.1. Despite recent divergence, the robust demand for AI solutions is likely to support a bullish trajectory, particularly if Blackwell ramp 2026-05-31 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — NVIDIA's current state of divergence, with a significant positive narrative dislocation score, suggests that the market is not yet pricing in the strength of its AI infrastructure narrative. However, the company's relative underperformance indicates that immediate investor sentim 2026-06-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around AI infrastructure, NVDA's pricing power is under pressure due to competition from custom silicon such as TPU and Trainium. This, coupled with hyperscalers' capex discipline, suggests continued downward pressure on NVDA's price. The positive narra Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-24 FIRST
bearish cont. 0.65
“The near-term outlook suggests continued pricing pressure as the market grapples with the narrative of AI infrastructure growth not translating into price advancements. Given the current repricing state, NVDA may struggle to regain momentum in the short term.”
2026-01-02
bullish cont. 0.75
“The next 1-2 months are expected to see continued positive momentum as the narrative around AI infrastructure builds. The pricing power and ramp economics appear to support a bullish outlook despite potential challenges in the China market.”
2026-02-10
bearish cont. 0.70
“The near-term outlook suggests continued bearish pressure as narrative dislocation persists, indicating that market expectations may not align with structural fundamentals. The price-led state reflects a disconnect that could lead to further volatility.”
2026-03-19
bearish cont. 0.70
“The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pricing pressures as the narrative surrounding AI infrastructure builds out but faces headwinds from China market share erosion. The repricing state indicates a cautious approach from investors.”
2026-04-27
inflect. pending 0.70
“As NVDA enters an early state, the price is starting to follow the narrative, but with significant pressure from the broader semiconductor landscape. The upcoming months may see volatility as the market assesses the impact of AI infrastructure developments and China market challe”
2026-06-01 TODAY
bearish cont. 0.70
“Despite a strong narrative around AI infrastructure, NVDA's pricing power is under pressure due to competition from custom silicon such as TPU and Trainium. This, coupled with hyperscalers' capex discipline, suggests continued downward pressure on NVDA's price. The positive narra”
L3 Expectation Lifecycle Field BUILT V1
Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.
adds Turns NVDA's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today 41 theses tracked over the window; 2 active today, 2 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 41 · strengthened 1 · weakened 3 · contradicted 11 · retired 52. Current persistent thesis: “AI semiconductor market dynamics” (neutral, conviction 0.70, 4 daily versions).
Current persistent thesis
“AI semiconductor market dynamics”
direction neutral conviction 0.70 daily versions 4 tracked 2026-05-13 → 2026-05-26
NVDA’s expectation theses 26 theses shown · 41 total
↑ AI-driven growth and stock performance
─ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
─ AI-driven growth and stock performance
↓ AI-driven growth and stock performance
↓ Nvidia's strategic moves in AI semiconductors
─ Nvidia's strategic moves in AI semiconductors
↑ Nvidia's strategic moves in AI semiconductors
─ Tech giants navigate AI and regulation
↓ Broadcom's AI and connectivity prospects
↑ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
─ AI investment strategies and market outlook
─ AI-driven semiconductor market dynamics
↑ Nvidia's AI dominance and market dynamics
↑ Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
─ AI stock market dynamics and trends
↓ AI stock market dynamics and trends
↓ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
─ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
↓ AI efficiency breakthroughs and innovations
↑ AI stock market dynamics and trends
↓ AI funding and talent dynamics
─ AI semiconductor market dynamics
↓ AI semiconductor market dynamics
↑ AI semiconductor market dynamics
● born▲ strengthened▼ weakened✕ contradicted○ retired
2026-01-02
3 active theses
2026-02-10
2 active theses
2026-03-19
4 active theses
2026-04-27
2 active theses
L4 Performance Field BUILT V1
Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.
adds Closes the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
today System-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. NVDA appears in 15 public regions and 4 limited, including 5 inverted.
NVDA appears in 25 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · direction sample 5d hit 20d hit actors
↓ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
n=65
55% (+8pp)
55% (+6pp)
17
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
n=61
51% (+3pp)
43% (-7pp)
19
↓ AI stock market dynamics and trends
n=47
32% (-16pp)
35% (-14pp)
15
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
n=45
44% (-3pp)
27% (-23pp)
18
↓ AI-driven growth and stock performance
n=39
56% (+9pp)
54% (+4pp)
16
↓ AI efficiency breakthroughs and innovations
n=31
45% (-3pp)
58% (+9pp)
13
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).