L0 Event Field BUILT
Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.
adds Captures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming PLTR, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today 1,809 events naming PLTR in the 132-day window where every layer has coverage (3,481 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming PLTR 1,809 total · peak 81 on 05-04
Peak day sample: “Nvidia, Palantir, and Broadcom Are Sending Shockwaves Through Wall Street With This $4.6 Billion Warning”
Some gaps 16 of 132 days in this window had zero events for PLTR — longest gap 9 consecutive days. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
L1 Narrative Field BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED
Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.
adds Places PLTR inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
today Primary cluster: “palantir / earnings / technologies” . Density (7d): 0.197 (momentum +0.001 , novelty 0.23 ). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
PLTR’s primary cluster over time 80 distinct clusters · 104 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2026-01-02
Palantir's AI Growth and Contracts
4d in this narrative
2026-02-10
Palantir stock volatility and outlook
12d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
8d in this narrative
2026-04-27
Palantir stock volatility and outlook
24d in this narrative
L2 Expectation Field BUILT V1
Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.
adds Turns PLTR's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
today Latest: inflection pending at conviction 0.70 . “Palantir's price currently leads its narrative, driven by recent government AI contract wins and commercial growth potential. However, with a significant NDS of -50.0, the price may face resistance if the narrative does not catch up. The next 1-2 months could see a correction unl”
PLTR’s daily expectation 130 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The divergence state suggests continued downward pressure on PLTR's price despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. Expect challenges in gaining traction in the near term. 2025-11-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — As of now, PLTR is in a repricing phase with a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth, yet the price continues to lag. Expect continued pressure in the near term as the broader narrative fails to translate into positive price momentum. 2025-11-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, PLTR is likely to continue facing challenges as positive narratives around government AI contracts and commercial growth fail to translate into price movement. The repricing state indicates persistent lagging performance relative to expectations. 2025-11-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests a positive trajectory driven by government AI contracts and commercial growth. Expect price to continue its upward movement in the near term as narrative support strengthens. 2025-12-01 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the early state and positive relative return, PLTR is positioned for potential growth driven by government AI contracts and commercial expansion. The narrative strength suggests continued upward momentum in the near term. 2025-12-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current early state indicates a potential for continued positive movement in the coming months, driven by government AI contracts and commercial growth. The narrative strength suggests that price will likely follow this trajectory. 2025-12-03 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and strong narrative backing, PLTR is likely to continue benefiting from government AI contracts and commercial growth in the near term. Expect upward price movement as the narrative solidifies. 2025-12-04 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With confirmed positive sentiment and strong narrative support, PLTR is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the next 1-2 months. The ongoing government AI contracts and commercial growth provide a solid foundation for further gains. 2025-12-05 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and positive narrative around government AI contracts, PLTR is likely to maintain its upward trajectory in the coming months. The relative performance against peers suggests strong market positioning. 2025-12-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — The positive trajectory in government AI contracts and commercial growth indicates a strong continuation in performance over the next couple of months. Expect the price to maintain upward momentum as the narrative remains confirmed. 2025-12-09 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Given the confirmed state and strong narrative surrounding government AI contracts, PLTR is likely to maintain its upward trajectory in the near term. Continued commercial growth should further support this positive outlook. 2025-12-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, PLTR is experiencing a price-led state with a negative narrative dislocation score, indicating potential challenges ahead. However, the recent relative performance suggests resilience, pointing towards a possible inflection as government contracts gain traction. 2025-12-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite government AI contracts and commercial growth narratives, price action remains dislocated, indicating a challenging path ahead. The recent price-led state suggests continued bearish pressure in the near term. 2025-12-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Given the persistent price-led state and declining narrative support, PLTR's near-term outlook suggests continued challenges in maintaining upward momentum. The divergence from positive narratives indicates a potential for further price weakness. 2025-12-15 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With strong government AI contracts and commercial growth, PLTR is positioned for continued price appreciation. The positive narrative and early state suggest a favorable trajectory in the near term. 2025-12-16 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With confirmed price support and a strong narrative around government AI contracts, PLTR is positioned for continued positive momentum in the near term. However, caution is warranted due to sector-wide narrative dislocation. 2025-12-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued challenges as the narrative around government AI contracts struggles to translate into price stability. The persistent repricing suggests further downward pressure is likely. 2025-12-18 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a positive narrative and early signs of repricing, PLTR is likely to see continued growth in the next couple of months. The momentum from government AI contracts and commercial expansion may bolster price performance. 2025-12-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture suggests continued momentum in the near term, driven by government AI contracts and commercial growth. Expect price to stabilize and potentially rise as narratives strengthen. 2025-12-22 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The early state suggests potential for continued upward movement in the next 1-2 months, driven by government AI contracts and commercial growth. The positive narrative and relative performance indicate a favorable outlook. 2025-12-23 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a solid narrative around government AI contracts and a positive 30-day trajectory, PLTR is expected to maintain its early growth momentum in the next couple of months. However, continued monitoring of pricing dynamics is essential. 2025-12-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — With confirmed positive narrative and strong NDS, PLTR is likely to maintain its upward trajectory over the next couple of months, driven by ongoing government contracts and commercial growth. 2025-12-26 · neutral_macro · conv 0.65 — As of now, PLTR is experiencing a repricing phase with a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. The recent trajectory indicates a potential stabilization, but the relative performance remains slightly negative compared to the benchmark. 2025-12-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The current divergence signals potential volatility in the near term, with government AI contracts providing a foundation for growth. However, the negative relative return suggests caution as the market may not fully recognize this narrative yet. 2025-12-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The outlook suggests continued divergence as the narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth remains strong, but the price is not reflecting this optimism. Expect further pressure in the near term as the market grapples with the dislocation. 2025-12-31 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current divergence indicates a potential inflection point, with the narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth remaining strong. However, the negative relative return suggests caution in the near term. 2026-01-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure on PLTR's price as it diverges from its positive narrative and government contract growth. The structural divergence suggests a challenging environment for recovery. 2026-01-05 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, PLTR is likely to experience volatility as it navigates the divergence between strong government AI contract narratives and a struggling price performance. Monitoring the market's response to upcoming developments will be crucial. 2026-01-06 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, PLTR is likely to experience volatility as it navigates through a repricing phase while supported by government AI contracts and commercial growth narratives. A cautious approach is warranted as the current trajectory shows mixed signals. 2026-01-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued downward pressure on PLTR's price due to a lagging narrative in the face of sector-wide repricing. The current structural state indicates a weak narrative alignment with price performance. 2026-01-08 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around government AI contracts remains strong, but the lack of clear pricing momentum could hinder growth. The current unclear state suggests potential for mixed outcomes. 2026-01-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the narrative surrounding government AI contracts fails to translate into upward price movement. Structural indicators suggest a bearish continuation amidst a challenging divergence context. 2026-01-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural indicators suggest a potential rebound in price as narrative strength aligns with early signs of market interest. However, the divergence with peers indicates caution. 2026-01-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty, with narrative strength failing to translate into price action. A potential inflection point could emerge if narrative alignment improves. 2026-01-14 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued uncertainty as PLTR navigates through a mixed narrative and negative trajectory indicators. The potential for inflection exists, but clarity on growth drivers is needed. 2026-01-15 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state indicates potential stabilization in the near term, but volatility remains due to mixed narrative signals. Continued focus on government AI contracts may provide upward momentum if narratives align. 2026-01-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The near-term outlook suggests continued repricing pressure despite a robust narrative around government AI contracts. The recent negative relative performance indicates potential challenges ahead. 2026-01-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, PLTR may experience volatility as it navigates a repricing phase despite positive narrative support from government contracts. The trajectory suggests potential for stabilization if growth narratives gain traction. 2026-01-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth is currently not translating into price appreciation, indicating a bearish continuation in the near term. Expect continued divergence as structural pressures weigh on performance. 2026-01-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth, PLTR continues to experience a significant price divergence, suggesting further bearish pressure in the near term. The current state indicates that the market is not rewarding the positive narrative 2026-01-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, PLTR is expected to face challenges in price recovery despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. The current repricing state suggests potential volatility as the market reassesses its valuation. 2026-01-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Expect continued pricing challenges as narrative momentum fails to translate into upward price movement. Potential for further divergence from sector peers is likely. 2026-01-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the ongoing divergence between narrative strength and price performance, PLTR is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term. The lack of market responsiveness to positive developments in government AI contracts suggests a challenging environment for recove 2026-01-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure on price as it remains disconnected from the strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. The divergence indicates a bearish sentiment, suggesting potential further declines. 2026-01-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Despite a robust narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth, the persistent divergence indicates ongoing price weakness. Expect continued challenges in achieving upward momentum over the next couple of months. 2026-01-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price weakness as the narrative around government AI contracts fails to translate into price gains, reflecting ongoing divergence in the market. Watch for potential shifts in sentiment or narrative confirmation. 2026-02-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pricing pressure as the narrative of government AI contracts fails to translate into market performance. The divergence from positive narrative suggests further challenges ahead. 2026-02-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the narrative surrounding government AI contracts fails to translate into market performance. The structural repricing indicates that optimism is not being rewarded, suggesting a bearish trend. 2026-02-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, PLTR is likely to face continued price pressure as the divergence between narrative strength and market performance persists. The broader software sector is under strain, and PLTR's strong government AI contracts and commercial growth narrative is not tr 2026-02-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the persistent divergence between narrative strength and price performance, PLTR is likely to face ongoing downward pressure in the near term. The negative relative return suggests that the stock may continue to lag behind its peers. 2026-02-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current divergence state indicates that despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth, PLTR's price is under pressure. Expect continued challenges in the near term as the broader software cohort faces headwinds. 2026-02-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests continued challenges, with prices lagging behind positive narrative momentum. Expect further consolidation in the near term as market sentiment adjusts. 2026-02-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, PLTR is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the divergence state indicates a lack of market confidence despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts. A significant shift in narrative perception is needed for recovery. 2026-02-11 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty as the narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth stabilizes. A lack of follow-through suggests caution in the near term. 2026-02-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as market sentiment stabilizes around government AI contracts. However, with recent divergence in relative performance, caution is advised as the trajectory may shift. 2026-02-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth remains unclear. A pivotal moment could arise as stakeholders assess the balance between potential and current performance. 2026-02-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued uncertainty, with the narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth not translating into positive momentum. A potential inflection point may emerge if the narrative stabilizes. 2026-02-18 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around government AI contracts struggles to translate into price action. With a negative narrative dislocation score and unclear state, caution is warranted. 2026-02-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, PLTR is likely to face continued pricing pressure as it navigates its repricing phase, despite a solid narrative around government AI contracts. The dislocation score suggests a cautious market reaction. 2026-02-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, PLTR shows signs of early growth with a recent narrative drop. The market may be cautious, but the potential for government AI contracts could drive future interest. 2026-02-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The structural state remains unclear, with recent divergence patterns suggesting continued price pressure despite positive narrative elements. Expect potential volatility as the market assesses growth in government AI contracts against broader sector challenges. 2026-02-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.55 — PLTR's current trajectory suggests potential stabilization after a period of divergence, although the unclear state indicates further volatility may be ahead. Investors should watch for signs of clearer narrative alignment with government contracts and commercial growth. 2026-02-25 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next couple of months may see fluctuations as the narrative remains unclear and dislocation persists. Focus on government contracts could provide potential upside if clarity improves. 2026-02-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next couple of months may see continued volatility as the narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth remains unclear. A cautious approach is warranted until clearer signals emerge. 2026-02-27 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth remains unclear. A potential inflection point could emerge if positive momentum is established. 2026-03-02 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — With a significant narrative dislocation and the stock price leading the story, PLTR appears poised for potential volatility. The near-term outlook suggests a need for clarity in narrative alignment to stabilize or improve performance. 2026-03-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the narrative struggles to align with market expectations. The significant negative narrative dislocation suggests that any positive developments may not be enough to reverse the current trend. 2026-03-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates a continued price-led state with negative narrative dislocation. Expect persistent downward pressure in the near term as market sentiment remains cautious despite positive growth narratives. 2026-03-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the persistent price-led state and negative narrative dislocation score, PLTR is likely to face continued downward pressure in the near term. The divergence from its narrative suggests that without a shift in market perception, price may remain stagnant or decline further. 2026-03-06 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates potential for price stabilization as narrative pressures shift. However, the negative narrative dislocation score suggests caution in the near term, with price-led dynamics needing to align better with the underlying story. 2026-03-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the narrative struggles to gain traction against a backdrop of recent price-led pressures. A shift in sentiment could be on the horizon if government contracts and commercial growth narratives strengthen. 2026-03-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural state indicates a transition into early growth, suggesting a potential stabilization in price as government AI contracts and commercial growth gain traction. However, volatility remains a concern with recent fluctuations in narrative strength. 2026-03-11 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — Given the repricing state and positive narrative score, PLTR is positioned for potential stabilization and a shift in momentum over the next couple of months. However, the negative relative performance suggests caution as the market digests recent developments. 2026-03-12 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current early state suggests a potential for price appreciation as the narrative around government AI contracts strengthens. A focus on commercial growth could further enhance momentum in the coming months. 2026-03-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state indicates continued pressure on PLTR's stock, despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. Expect short-term challenges with potential for stabilization if the narrative strengthens. 2026-03-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, PLTR may continue to face downward pressure despite a stable narrative around government AI contracts, as evidenced by recent repricing dynamics. The lack of upward momentum suggests ongoing challenges in aligning market performance with narrative expectat 2026-03-17 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The current early state indicates positive momentum, particularly driven by government AI contracts. Expect continued growth as the narrative strengthens. 2026-03-18 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Given the current early state and positive narrative surrounding government AI contracts, PLTR is likely to experience a bullish continuation in the next couple of months. The recent uptick in relative performance suggests growing market confidence. 2026-03-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The outlook for the next 1-2 months appears bullish, supported by a strong narrative around government AI contracts and improving metrics. The recent uptick in narrative dislocation score indicates growing market interest. 2026-03-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a solid narrative around government AI contracts and a positive narrative dislocation score, PLTR is positioned for continued growth in the near term. The early state suggests momentum may build as the market begins to align with the narrative. 2026-03-23 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — With a confirmed state and positive narrative score, PLTR is positioned for continued growth, particularly in government AI contracts. The trajectory suggests sustained upward movement over the next couple of months. 2026-03-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural indicators suggest continued growth driven by government AI contracts and commercial expansion. Expect a positive trajectory over the next couple of months as the narrative strengthens. 2026-03-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As of now, PLTR is showing early signs of price recovery alongside strong narrative support. The positive trajectory in narrative suggests continued momentum in government AI contracts will likely drive further price alignment in the coming months. 2026-03-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, PLTR is likely to continue facing price pressure despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts. The repricing state suggests ongoing challenges in translating narrative strength into positive price movement. 2026-03-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative of government AI contracts and commercial growth struggles to translate into price movement. Despite a strong narrative score, the relative performance indicates persistent weakness. 2026-03-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth, PLTR is experiencing significant price divergence, indicating potential continued weakness in the near term. The narrative is not translating into price appreciation, suggesting a challenging outlook 2026-03-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as PLTR navigates a repricing phase, with narrative support from government contracts and commercial growth. However, the relative performance indicates caution is warranted. 2026-04-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state indicates continued pressure on PLTR's price despite a solid narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. Expect further price adjustments as the market reassesses its value. 2026-04-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term trajectory suggests a cautious optimism as narrative strength remains stable, but pricing pressures persist. Continued government contracts may support a rebound, though volatility is expected. 2026-04-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, PLTR is expected to continue facing downward pressure despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts. The repricing state indicates challenges in aligning price with narrative momentum. 2026-04-07 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As of now, PLTR is positioned for continued upward movement driven by positive narrative momentum and early structural indicators. The focus on government AI contracts and commercial growth suggests a favorable trajectory in the near term. 2026-04-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the persistent divergence between narrative strength and price performance, PLTR is likely to face continued bearish pressure in the near term. The strong narrative around government AI contracts is failing to translate into positive price movement. 2026-04-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the persistent divergence in narrative and price performance, PLTR is likely to face continued downward pressure in the near term. The strong narrative around government AI contracts is not translating into positive price movement, indicating a challenging environment ahead 2026-04-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth, PLTR's price remains under significant pressure, indicating a bearish outlook in the near term. The divergence from narrative expectations suggests continued challenges ahead. 2026-04-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Given the current divergence and significant narrative pressure from the broader software cohort, PLTR is likely to face continued challenges in realizing price appreciation despite its government and commercial growth narratives. The structural context suggests a bearish outlook 2026-04-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a persistent divergence between price and narrative, PLTR is likely to face continued pressure in the near term, particularly as broader software sector sentiment remains bearish. The focus on government AI contracts may not be sufficient to offset the negative market percep 2026-04-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Expect continued repricing pressures as the narrative around government AI contracts is strong but not translating effectively into price performance. The recent divergence suggests a cautious market sentiment. 2026-04-16 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, we expect continued positive momentum as PLTR capitalizes on government contracts and commercial growth, despite recent repricing pressures. The narrative remains strong, suggesting potential for further gains. 2026-04-17 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — The structural indicators suggest continued strength in PLTR's narrative around government AI contracts, with confirmed price movements supporting bullish sentiment. Expect steady growth driven by both government and commercial engagements over the next couple of months. 2026-04-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The confirmed state indicates strong alignment with the positive narrative around government AI contracts, suggesting continued upward momentum in the short term. Expect price stability or growth as the market digests recent performance. 2026-04-21 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — While PLTR's narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth remains strong, the recent divergence from price suggests potential headwinds in the short term. Expect continued volatility as the market assesses value amidst sector pressures. 2026-04-22 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, PLTR is expected to maintain positive momentum as it capitalizes on government AI contracts and commercial growth. Price is starting to follow narrative, suggesting potential for further appreciation. 2026-04-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure despite a solid narrative around government AI contracts, as the market is currently in a repricing phase. The divergence with peers suggests further challenges ahead. 2026-04-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — As of now, PLTR is experiencing a repricing phase with a negative relative return, suggesting continued pressure on the stock despite stable narrative support from government contracts. The next 1-2 months may see further adjustments as the market reconciles price with narrative 2026-04-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, PLTR is expected to continue facing pricing pressure despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. The market appears to be prioritizing other hardware names, which could further delay any upward movement in price. 2026-04-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued divergence as positive narrative around government AI contracts fails to translate into price gains. The structural challenges suggest a bearish continuation unless significant catalysts emerge. 2026-04-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural divergence indicates ongoing challenges in translating positive narratives into price movement. Expect continued bearish pressure as the market remains skeptical despite strong government AI contracts and commercial growth. 2026-04-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state indicates ongoing challenges with price adjustments despite a solid narrative around government AI contracts. Expect continued pressure on relative performance in the near term. 2026-05-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued repricing pressure, with price lagging behind a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. Expect a challenging environment in the near term as divergence trends persist. 2026-05-04 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, PLTR is in a repricing phase, indicating potential stabilization after recent divergences. The outlook suggests cautious optimism as government contracts and commercial growth remain pivotal. 2026-05-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth, PLTR's current divergence indicates continued price weakness despite positive developments. The outlook remains bearish as the market fails to respond to the narrative. 2026-05-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, continued divergence is expected as the positive narrative around government AI contracts fails to translate into price increases, given the broader sector pressures. The likelihood of sustained underperformance remains high. 2026-05-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, PLTR is likely to continue facing pressure as the positive narrative around government contracts and commercial growth fails to translate into price gains. The divergence from market expectations suggests a challenging environment ahead. 2026-05-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on PLTR's price as the divergence between positive narrative and negative price action persists. Structural challenges in the software sector and a lack of upward momentum suggest further bearish conditions. 2026-05-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, PLTR is likely to continue facing downward pressure as its positive narrative around government AI contracts fails to translate into price recovery, amidst broader sector challenges. The divergence pattern suggests persistent weakness. 2026-05-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The repricing state suggests continued pressure on PLTR's stock, as positive narratives around government AI contracts and commercial growth have not translated into price gains. Expect a challenging environment in the near term as the divergence persists. 2026-05-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price pressure as narrative strength fails to translate into positive market movement. The divergence suggests a challenging environment for PLTR despite strong government AI contracts and commercial growth. 2026-05-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth, PLTR is experiencing significant price pressure, indicating a bearish outlook in the near term. The divergence between narrative and price suggests continued struggles ahead. 2026-05-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.60 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing pressures as the narrative around government AI contracts fails to translate into positive price movement. Observing peers experiencing similar challenges, PLTR may struggle to gain traction. 2026-05-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates persistent repricing challenges, with narrative strength not translating into price movement. Expect continued pressure in the near term as the divergence persists. 2026-05-19 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — Palantir's narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth remains strong, yet the price continues to lag significantly. Despite multiple repricing attempts, the narrative has not translated into sustained price gains. This suggests the market may need more evidenc 2026-05-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — Palantir's narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth continues to lead its price performance, with a positive NDS of +5.2 indicating narrative strength. Despite recent repricing attempts, the stock remains in a price-lagging narrative state, suggesting furthe 2026-05-21 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — PLTR's price has surged ahead of its narrative, with government AI contracts and commercial growth yet to fully materialize in narrative traction. This price-led state suggests that investors are anticipating future growth, but the narrative needs to catch up to sustain the momen 2026-05-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — Palantir has experienced a notable disconnect between its narrative and stock price, with price leading the narrative recently. Despite a positive relative return of +3.5%, the narrative dislocation score of -15.5 indicates that the market's expectations might be running ahead of 2026-05-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Palantir is currently in a repricing state, with its stock price beginning to catch up to its strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. This shift follows a period of significant divergence where narrative markedly outpaced price performance. As more 2026-05-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Palantir's current state of repricing suggests a potential bullish continuation as the narrative remains strong, driven by government AI contracts and commercial growth. The recent shift from divergence to repricing indicates a potential alignment of price with narrative strength 2026-05-28 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — PLTR continues to experience a price lag despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. The actor's narrative score remains high, yet the market has not fully caught up, indicating a potential for further repricing as the narrative continues to l 2026-05-29 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative driven by government AI contracts and commercial growth, PLTR's price has not caught up, leading to a significant divergence. This suggests a potential inflection point as market recognition could align with the narrative, especially if contract announc 2026-05-31 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Palantir Technologies is experiencing a significant narrative-price dislocation, with its narrative of government AI contracts and commercial growth not yet reflected in its current pricing. The recent shift back to a 'REPRICING' state suggests potential upward movement as the ma 2026-06-01 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — Palantir's price currently leads its narrative, driven by recent government AI contract wins and commercial growth potential. However, with a significant NDS of -50.0, the price may face resistance if the narrative does not catch up. The next 1-2 months could see a correction unl Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-24 FIRST
bearish cont. 0.70
“The divergence state suggests continued downward pressure on PLTR's price despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. Expect challenges in gaining traction in the near term.”
2026-01-02
bearish cont. 0.70
“The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure on PLTR's price as it diverges from its positive narrative and government contract growth. The structural divergence suggests a challenging environment for recovery.”
2026-02-10
bearish cont. 0.70
“In the next 1-2 months, PLTR is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the divergence state indicates a lack of market confidence despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts. A significant shift in narrative perception is needed for recovery.”
2026-03-19
bullish cont. 0.75
“The outlook for the next 1-2 months appears bullish, supported by a strong narrative around government AI contracts and improving metrics. The recent uptick in narrative dislocation score indicates growing market interest.”
2026-04-27
bearish cont. 0.70
“Over the next 1-2 months, PLTR is expected to continue facing pricing pressure despite a strong narrative around government AI contracts and commercial growth. The market appears to be prioritizing other hardware names, which could further delay any upward movement in price.”
2026-06-01 TODAY
inflect. pending 0.70
“Palantir's price currently leads its narrative, driven by recent government AI contract wins and commercial growth potential. However, with a significant NDS of -50.0, the price may face resistance if the narrative does not catch up. The next 1-2 months could see a correction unl”
L3 Expectation Lifecycle Field BUILT V1
Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.
adds Turns PLTR's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today 54 theses tracked over the window; 1 active today, 1 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 54 · strengthened 3 · weakened 2 · contradicted 7 · retired 62. Current persistent thesis: “Palantir stock volatility and outlook” (neutral, conviction 0.70, 5 daily versions).
Current persistent thesis
“Palantir stock volatility and outlook”
direction neutral conviction 0.70 daily versions 5 tracked 2026-04-21 → 2026-05-21
PLTR’s expectation theses 23 theses shown · 54 total
↑ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
─ Palantir's AI Expansion and Market Dynamics
↓ Palantir's AI Expansion and Market Dynamics
↑ Palantir's AI Expansion and Market Dynamics
↑ AI-driven growth and stock performance
─ AI-driven growth and stock performance
↓ Palantir's AI Growth and Contracts
─ Palantir's AI Growth and Contracts
─ Tech giants navigate AI and regulation
↓ Palantir stock volatility and outlook
─ Palantir stock volatility and outlook
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
─ AI investment strategies and market outlook
─ Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
─ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
↑ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
↓ Palantir's volatile market dynamics
↑ AI ethics and military oversight
↑ MercadoLibre growth and valuation challenges
↓ MercadoLibre growth and valuation challenges
↓ Palantir stock volatility and outlook
↑ Palantir stock volatility and outlook
─ Palantir stock volatility and outlook
● born▲ strengthened▼ weakened✕ contradicted○ retired
2026-01-02
1 active thesis
2026-02-10
2 active theses
2026-03-19
2 active theses
2026-04-27
3 active theses
L4 Performance Field BUILT V1
Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.
adds Closes the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
today System-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. PLTR appears in 17 public regions and 6 limited, including 4 inverted.
PLTR appears in 37 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · direction sample 5d hit 20d hit actors
↓ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
n=65
55% (+8pp)
55% (+6pp)
17
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
n=61
51% (+3pp)
43% (-7pp)
19
↓ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
n=48
54% (+6pp)
63% (+13pp)
16
↑ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
n=48
58% (+10pp)
54% (+5pp)
11
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
n=45
44% (-3pp)
27% (-23pp)
18
↓ Tech giants navigate AI and regulation
n=40
65% (+17pp)
53% (+3pp)
15
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).