L0 Event Field BUILT
Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.
adds Captures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming ARM, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today 528 events naming ARM in the 132-day window where every layer has coverage (1,037 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming ARM 528 total · peak 35 on 03-25
Peak day sample: “Arm to Sell Its Own Chips, Eyeing Sales Goal of $15 Billion”
Some gaps 16 of 132 days in this window had zero events for ARM. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
L1 Narrative Field BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED
Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.
adds Places ARM inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
today Primary cluster: “week / investors / about” . Density (7d): 0.270 (momentum +0.040 , novelty 0.25 ). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
ARM’s primary cluster over time 114 distinct clusters · 116 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2026-01-02
AI investment strategies for 2026
2d in this narrative
2026-02-10
AI investment strategies and market outlook
5d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Super Micro's AI and market dynamics
4d in this narrative
2026-04-27
Alphabet's growth and investment potential
1d in this narrative
L2 Expectation Field BUILT V1
Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.
adds Turns ARM's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
today Latest: bullish continuation at conviction 0.70 . “ARM's price continues to lead its narrative, driven by its strategic expansion into AI chip architecture licensing. Despite a narrative dislocation score of -73.6, ARM's relative return of +15.1% indicates strong market confidence in its growth potential. This momentum is likely ”
ARM’s daily expectation 130 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, ARM is expected to continue facing pricing pressure despite a strong narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips. The current trajectory shows a disconnect between narrative strength and price performance. 2025-11-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates a continued struggle for ARM to translate its positive narrative into price movement. Expect persistent bearish pressure over the next couple of months as the story remains unrecognized by the market. 2025-11-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to continue the divergence as the positive narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips fails to translate into price movement, reflecting broader sector trends. Continued pressure from peers suggests limited upside. 2025-11-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The trajectory indicates continued repricing with a lagging narrative, suggesting potential for further downside in the short term. The current narrative around AI chip licensing is not being fully reflected in the price. 2025-12-01 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, ARM is in a repricing state with a narrative that suggests expansion into AI chip architecture licensing. Given the mixed signals from peers, there may be volatility ahead, but the underlying narrative supports potential upward momentum in the coming months. 2025-12-02 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pricing adjustments as the market digests ARM's narrative around AI chips, with potential for stabilization if licensing momentum builds. However, the relative performance against peers suggests caution. 2025-12-03 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM may face challenges navigating macro pressures despite a positive relative return. The focus on expanding architecture licensing into AI chips could provide some support, but structural dislocation suggests caution. 2025-12-04 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The trajectory suggests a potential rebound as the market reassesses ARM's narrative around AI chip architecture despite recent price-led pressure. A cautious optimism may emerge if licensing narratives strengthen. 2025-12-05 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.65 — With a narrative focused on expanding architecture licensing into AI chips, ARM is positioned for potential growth despite a recent decline in narrative strength. The early state suggests room for recovery in both narrative and relative performance over the next couple of months. 2025-12-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the early state and expanding narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips, ARM is positioned for potential upward movement in the near term. The slight positive relative return suggests some market confidence, despite the negative narrative dislocation score. 2025-12-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — In the next couple of months, ARM may face continued macro pressures while attempting to stabilize its narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips. A potential shift in sentiment could occur if the narrative improves. 2025-12-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The momentum suggests continued repricing with the narrative lagging behind market expectations. A cautious outlook is warranted as the structural indicators reflect potential headwinds in maintaining upward momentum. 2025-12-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The near-term outlook remains challenging as the narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips is not translating into price movements. Expect continued repricing pressure over the coming months. 2025-12-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on ARM's price despite a strong narrative around AI chip licensing, as the divergence indicates persistent market skepticism. A focus on peer performance may further exacerbate this trend. 2025-12-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued divergence, with narrative strength not translating into price performance. Expect further challenges in the near term as sentiment remains weak across the sector. 2025-12-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see ARM's price continue struggling to reflect the positive narrative around AI chip licensing, as indicated by the persistent divergence in performance. Expectations remain muted as the story is not being paid in the market. 2025-12-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a positive narrative around architecture licensing and AI chip expansion, ARM is experiencing significant price divergence. The negative relative return indicates ongoing market skepticism that may persist in the near term. 2025-12-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Despite a strong narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips, ARM's price continues to lag significantly behind expectations. This divergence indicates a bearish continuation in the near term as market sentiment may take time to realign with the narrative. 2025-12-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM may continue to struggle as the narrative around AI chip licensing expands but remains underappreciated in the market, leading to persistent divergence in performance relative to its fundamentals. 2025-12-22 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM may experience a mixed trajectory as its narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips continues to develop, despite a significant divergence in pricing behavior. The market may begin to reconcile this divergence, but the current negative relativ 2025-12-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, ARM's trajectory may continue to reflect divergence as the narrative around architecture licensing fails to translate into positive price movement. The market appears skeptical of the growth potential in AI chips. 2025-12-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, ARM is likely to face continued downward pressure as the narrative surrounding its architecture licensing does not seem to translate into positive market performance. The divergence indicates a disconnect between the story and stock performance. 2025-12-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests a potential shift as ARM's narrative on AI chip licensing struggles against a backdrop of declining relative performance. A repricing may occur if the narrative strengthens. 2025-12-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the market adjusts to ARM's narrative of expanding architecture licensing into AI chips, though current price performance is lagging behind expectations. 2025-12-30 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural picture suggests a potential stabilization in narrative as licensing expands, yet macro pressures may keep the price under strain in the near term. 2025-12-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next couple of months may see continued volatility as ARM navigates macro pressures while its architecture licensing in AI chips remains a promising narrative. A cautious approach is warranted given the recent negative trajectory. 2026-01-02 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current price-led state suggests volatility ahead, with a narrative indicating potential growth in AI chip architecture licensing. Expect some fluctuations as the market digests these developments over the next couple of months. 2026-01-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price pressure as narrative dislocation remains high. While architecture licensing in AI chips shows promise, the current structural indicators suggest a bearish sentiment. 2026-01-06 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural indicators suggest a potential for continued upward momentum as ARM's architecture licensing in AI chips gains traction. Despite some recent volatility, the early state indicates a favorable environment for growth. 2026-01-07 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current early state and positive narrative trajectory, ARM is poised for a potential price recovery over the next couple of months as architecture licensing in AI chips gains traction. 2026-01-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a solid narrative around AI chip licensing and a positive NDS, ARM is positioned for upward price movement in the coming months. The current early state suggests potential for continued gains as market conditions stabilize. 2026-01-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months may see continued struggles as the positive narrative around AI chip licensing fails to translate into price performance, given the recent repricing and divergence trends. 2026-01-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips is not translating into price gains, suggesting continued downward pressure in the near term. Expect potential volatility as the divergence persists. 2026-01-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a positive narrative surrounding architecture licensing for AI chips, the divergence in price performance suggests continued bearish pressure in the near term. The lack of price appreciation relative to the narrative indicates potential challenges ahead. 2026-01-14 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a strong narrative surrounding architecture licensing in AI chips, ARM is likely to see continued positive sentiment in the near term, despite recent price divergence. The upward trajectory in narrative strength suggests potential for price recovery. 2026-01-15 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence suggests a potential upward trajectory as narrative momentum builds around architecture licensing in AI chips. Expect continued focus on this growth area over the next couple of months. 2026-01-16 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture suggests a continued bullish trend as the narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips gains traction. Expect price to align more closely with this positive narrative in the near term. 2026-01-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural state indicates a bullish continuation as ARM's narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips gains traction. Expect a positive trajectory in the next 1-2 months, supported by a strong narrative backdrop. 2026-01-21 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — With a confirmed state and a positive narrative surrounding AI chip architecture licensing, ARM is likely to see continued price support and growth in the next 1-2 months. The strong NDS and positive relative return indicate robust market sentiment. 2026-01-22 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Over the next 1-2 months, ARM is expected to maintain its positive trajectory as architecture licensing in AI chips continues to drive narrative strength, supported by confirming price dynamics. The current confirmed state suggests stability and potential for further gains. 2026-01-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price confirmation against a backdrop of a strong narrative around AI chip licensing, but potential divergence with peers suggests caution. Sustained momentum will depend on overcoming recent narrative dislocation. 2026-01-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a solid confirmation of the narrative around architecture licensing expanding into AI chips, suggesting continued upward momentum over the next couple of months. Price performance is likely to align positively with this narrative. 2026-01-27 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM is expected to see continued price appreciation as its narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips gains traction. The current early state indicates potential for positive momentum. 2026-01-28 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM may experience continued volatility as the narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips stabilizes amidst mixed market responses. The divergence state suggests potential for both upward and downward price movements depending on broader market co 2026-01-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — ARM's narrative around expanding architecture licensing into AI chips remains strong, yet the price continues to lag significantly behind, indicating a bearish outlook in the near term. The divergence from narrative suggests challenges in translating positive sentiment into price 2026-01-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips, ARM's price continues to lag behind expectations. The recent divergence suggests ongoing challenges in translating positive developments into price appreciation over the next couple of months. 2026-02-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the ongoing divergence and negative relative performance, ARM is likely to face continued price pressure in the near term despite a strong narrative around AI chip architecture licensing. 2026-02-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current divergence indicates that despite a positive narrative around AI chip licensing, ARM's price is unlikely to respond favorably in the near term. Continued sector-wide pressures may further inhibit price recovery. 2026-02-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM is likely to face continued price pressure despite strong narrative support around AI chip licensing. The repricing state indicates a struggle to convert positive narratives into price appreciation. 2026-02-05 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a likely continuation of positive momentum in the near term, supported by strong narrative alignment. As such, ARM may see further price appreciation as the market acknowledges its expanding architecture licensing in AI chips. 2026-02-06 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Given the confirmed state and strong narrative around AI chip licensing, ARM may experience short-term resilience. However, significant narrative dislocation suggests potential price pressures in the broader semiconductor sector. 2026-02-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — The structural picture indicates a confirmed narrative around AI chip licensing, yet the negative narrative dislocation score suggests potential price weakness. Expect a cautious trajectory over the next month as the market seeks to reconcile these conflicting signals. 2026-02-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The confirmed state and strong narrative around AI chip architecture licensing suggest a continuation of positive momentum in the next 1-2 months, despite recent fluctuations in narrative dislocation scores. 2026-02-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued confirmation of ARM's narrative around architecture licensing, despite some fluctuations in market response. The current confirmed state suggests resilience, but the negative narrative dislocation score indicates potential headwinds 2026-02-12 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and strong narrative support, ARM is positioned for continued growth in the AI chip licensing sector. The positive relative return suggests market confidence in the expansion. 2026-02-13 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ARM's narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips is gaining traction, suggesting a positive outlook in the coming months. The early state indicates potential for further price appreciation as the market aligns with this narrative. 2026-02-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see fluctuating interest as ARM's architecture licensing in AI chips faces mixed market responses. A cautious approach is warranted as the narrative stabilizes. 2026-02-18 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current state indicates early signs of price recovery, but recent divergence suggests caution. A sustained narrative around AI chip architecture could drive further price alignment in the coming months. 2026-02-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips is strengthening, suggesting a positive trajectory in the near term. Expect continued price alignment with the favorable narrative as structural indicators support growth. 2026-02-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests a mixed trajectory as ARM's narrative around AI chip architecture licensing continues to evolve. Repricing dynamics indicate potential volatility, though the underlying narrative remains strong. 2026-02-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative around AI chip architecture licensing struggles to translate into price performance, especially amidst sector-wide pressures. The divergence between positive narrative and negative price action suggests a 2026-02-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing suggests a positive adjustment as ARM's narrative of expanding architecture licensing into AI chips gains traction. Expect continued support from this trend over the next couple of months. 2026-02-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As ARM is experiencing early signs of market acceptance with a strong narrative around AI chips, the next 1-2 months are likely to see continued positive momentum, especially if licensing deals expand. The current trajectory suggests a favorable outlook. 2026-02-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM may continue to face challenges as its price lags behind a strong narrative of architecture licensing in AI chips. The recent repricing indicates ongoing volatility. 2026-02-27 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM may see fluctuations as it navigates its early state and the ongoing developments in AI chip architecture licensing. The narrative remains positive, but volatility is expected. 2026-03-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM is likely to experience continued repricing as market sentiment remains cautious despite the narrative of expanding architecture licensing into AI chips. The current trajectory shows a lag in price relative to positive narrative developments. 2026-03-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current repricing state and the ongoing divergence with peers, ARM is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term. The narrative around AI chip licensing is not translating into price support, suggesting a challenging environment ahead. 2026-03-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next couple of months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative around architecture licensing and AI chips struggles to translate into price appreciation. Given the lagging relative performance, caution is warranted. 2026-03-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the narrative around architecture licensing and AI chips fails to translate into positive price movement, indicating a bearish continuation of the current divergence state. 2026-03-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current divergence indicates ongoing challenges in aligning market sentiment with ARM's narrative of expanding architecture licensing into AI chips. Expect continued pressure on relative performance in the near term. 2026-03-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, ARM's trajectory may continue to be challenged as the divergence state indicates a disconnect between narrative and market perception, despite the potential in AI chip licensing. A cautious approach is warranted as further price adjustments may be needed. 2026-03-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see ARM's price stabilize as it grapples with a repricing phase, amidst a backdrop of expanding architecture licensing in AI. Attention will be on whether the narrative can regain momentum. 2026-03-11 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips develops. Market sentiment is mixed, with potential for upward movement if the narrative strengthens. 2026-03-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests a potential stabilization in ARM's stock, with narrative support from expanding architecture licensing. However, recent relative underperformance indicates caution as the market assesses the sustainability of this growth. 2026-03-13 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — As ARM's architecture licensing expands into AI chips, the early state suggests potential for further price appreciation. The positive relative return indicates a favorable market reaction, despite some recent narrative fluctuations. 2026-03-16 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see fluctuations as ARM navigates a challenging narrative environment. However, the expansion into AI chip architecture licensing could provide a foundation for potential recovery. 2026-03-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current trajectory suggests a potential recovery as narrative pressures stabilize, but recent negative dislocation indicates caution. Monitoring for signs of stronger demand in AI chip licensing will be key. 2026-03-18 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as ARM's narrative around AI chip licensing struggles to gain traction amid a challenging pricing environment. The structural indicators suggest potential for both upward and downward movements. 2026-03-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on ARM's pricing as the narrative remains negative and the dislocation score worsens significantly. The structural indicators suggest that the company may struggle to regain upward momentum in the short term. 2026-03-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and a positive relative return, ARM is well-positioned to capitalize on its expanding architecture licensing in the AI sector. However, the narrative dislocation indicates some caution may be warranted. 2026-03-23 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture suggests a continuation of positive momentum in the next couple of months as architecture licensing gains traction in AI chips, despite recent fluctuations in narrative strength. 2026-03-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — With a confirmed state and a strong narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips, ARM is positioned for continued positive performance in the near term. The recent trajectory shows a rebound and growing confidence, suggesting a favorable outlook for the next few months. 2026-03-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed narrative of architecture licensing expanding into AI chips, ARM is expected to maintain its positive price momentum over the next couple of months despite recent volatility. The significant relative return indicates strong market confidence. 2026-03-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM's confirmed narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips may face challenges due to a broader divergence cluster impacting sentiment in the semiconductor sector. However, the strong relative return suggests resilience. 2026-03-27 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Despite a confirmed narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips, recent divergence in price action suggests a mixed outlook. The narrative strength remains, but the price performance is not fully aligned, indicating potential headwinds ahead. 2026-03-30 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and a strong narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips, ARM is positioned for continued price appreciation in the near term. The recent positive trajectory supports this bullish outlook. 2026-03-31 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and a strong narrative around AI chip architecture licensing, ARM is positioned for continued growth. The recent trajectory suggests resilience despite some volatility. 2026-04-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued challenges as the narrative around architecture licensing fails to translate into price gains. The persistent repricing state suggests a bearish outlook as momentum remains weak. 2026-04-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the divergence reflects a disconnect between narrative strength and market performance. As architecture licensing expands, investor sentiment could shift positively if alignment improves. 2026-04-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on ARM's stock as market sentiment lags behind the narrative. Expect a challenging few months as the narrative around AI chips may not fully translate into positive price movement. 2026-04-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The stock is in a repricing state, reflecting a lag in price compared to its narrative on architecture licensing for AI chips. Expect continued downward pressure in the near term as the market reassesses valuation against the narrative. 2026-04-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates continued price weakness despite a strong narrative around AI chip architecture licensing. Expect further challenges in the 1-2 month outlook as the broader semiconductor sector faces pressure. 2026-04-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ARM's narrative of expanding architecture licensing into AI chips is currently being overshadowed by persistent price pressure across the software sector. Despite a positive narrative, the divergence indicates a continuation of bearish sentiment in the near term. 2026-04-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see ARM's price struggle to align with its positive narrative of expanding architecture licensing into AI chips, given the current repricing state and overall sector pressure. Expect continued volatility as the market reassesses its valuation. 2026-04-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — ARM's current repricing suggests a cautious outlook as it navigates the transition to AI chip architecture licensing. The narrative pressure indicates potential for upward movement if the market stabilizes. 2026-04-14 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and expanding architecture licensing in AI chips, ARM is positioned for potential growth in the next couple of months. However, the narrative dislocation indicates some underlying pressures that may impact performance. 2026-04-15 · neutral_macro · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as ARM navigates a challenging macro environment, despite potential in AI chip architecture licensing. 2026-04-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM may continue to face headwinds due to a negative narrative dislocation score and macro pressures. Although there is some relative strength, the overall sentiment suggests a cautious outlook. 2026-04-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current state indicates price-led movements with a significant narrative dislocation, suggesting potential volatility. The trajectory in the semiconductor sector may lead to a reassessment, especially as architecture licensing expands into AI chips. 2026-04-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The trajectory suggests a cautious recovery as ARM's narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips is gaining traction. However, the negative dislocation score indicates potential headwinds that could challenge momentum in the coming months. 2026-04-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural indicators suggest a challenging environment for ARM, with narrative strength not translating into price movement. Expect continued volatility as the market reassesses ARM's growth potential in AI chips. 2026-04-22 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a confirmed state and a positive narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips, ARM is likely to see continued price support in the near term. The divergence in narrative strength suggests potential for upward movement despite some recent volatility. 2026-04-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a confirmed narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips, the significant negative narrative dislocation suggests ongoing challenges in maintaining price momentum. Expect continued pressure in the near term. 2026-04-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a continuation of positive momentum, driven by the confirmed narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips. Expect further price appreciation in the near term as market sentiment remains favorable. 2026-04-27 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates a continuation of positive price movement as narrative strength aligns with confirmed state. ARM's architecture licensing in AI chips is gaining traction, suggesting further upside potential in the coming months. 2026-04-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As of now, ARM's confirmed narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips is positively impacting its price, suggesting a continued bullish trajectory in the near term. However, the negative NDS indicates some caution may be warranted. 2026-04-29 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a potential upward trend as narrative support strengthens and price begins to align with positive sentiment. Continued focus on AI chip architecture licensing may drive further gains in the coming months. 2026-04-30 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a repricing state and a positive narrative around AI chip architecture licensing, ARM is positioned for potential growth in the next one to two months. Recent trajectory indicates a stabilizing narrative despite slight pricing lag. 2026-05-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may continue to see ARM's price lag despite a strong narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips, as indicated by the divergence state. Expect further pressure on price as the story remains unrecognized by the market. 2026-05-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural divergence indicates continued challenges for ARM, despite strong narrative potential in AI chip licensing. Expect further price pressure as the narrative struggles to gain traction. 2026-05-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, ARM is likely to experience continued repricing as the narrative around architecture licensing into AI chips struggles to translate into price appreciation. The recent divergence suggests a challenging environment for upward momentum. 2026-05-06 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The confirmed state of ARM's narrative around architecture licensing in AI chips indicates strong market interest, likely supporting price growth in the near term despite broader sector pressures. Continued confirmation of this narrative may lead to sustained upward momentum. 2026-05-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current state of repricing suggests continued downward pressure on ARM's price despite a strong narrative around AI chip licensing. Expect challenges in gaining traction as peers exhibit mixed responses to narrative strength. 2026-05-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on ARM's price despite a strong narrative around AI chip architecture licensing. Repricing dynamics indicate persistent challenges ahead. 2026-05-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, ARM is likely to continue facing pressure as the positive narrative around AI architecture licensing fails to translate into price appreciation. The ongoing repricing suggests a challenging environment for recovery. 2026-05-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM's price is likely to continue lagging behind its positive narrative on architecture licensing for AI chips, as indicated by the ongoing repricing state and negative relative performance. The divergence seen in the sector suggests that broader sentiment 2026-05-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The divergence state indicates that despite a strong narrative around AI chip licensing, ARM's price is not reflecting this potential. Expect continued pressure in the near term as the market remains skeptical. 2026-05-14 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ARM is expected to maintain upward momentum as the narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips gains traction. The structural shift suggests a stabilization in price following recent divergence. 2026-05-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued price lagging against the positive narrative of architecture licensing in AI chips, as confirmed by recent divergence patterns. Structural pressures indicate a bearish continuation as the market struggles to respond positively. 2026-05-18 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see ARM's price struggle to align with its positive narrative around AI chip licensing, as indicated by the early state and the divergence in peer performance. Continued monitoring of market sentiment is essential. 2026-05-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ARM's recent transition from a divergence to an early price-following state suggests its architecture licensing expansion into AI chips is starting to resonate with investors. The positive NDS of +11.0 and relative return of +2.2% indicate a shift towards alignment between narrat 2026-05-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ARM's recent shift to the 'price starting to follow' state suggests its narrative of expanding architecture licensing into AI chips is translating into market traction. With a positive NDS of +11.0 and a relative return of +2.2%, ARM is breaking away from the broader semiconducto 2026-05-21 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ARM's recent shift to 'price starting to follow' suggests its architecture licensing expansion into AI chips is beginning to resonate with investors. With a positive relative return of +16.3% and a confirmed state, the stock is likely to continue its upward trajectory as the mark 2026-05-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ARM's recent trajectory shows price starting to align more closely with its narrative of expanding architecture licensing into AI chips. With a strong relative return of +31.2% and price leading the narrative, the momentum is likely to continue as investors recognize the strategi 2026-05-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ARM's current state of 'price ahead of story' with a significant negative narrative dislocation score suggests that the market has overextended on its expectations for ARM's expansion into AI chips. The persistent negative NDS of -225.6 indicates that while the price has surged, 2026-05-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — ARM's current price surge, driven by optimism around AI chip architecture licensing, is ahead of its narrative strength, as indicated by a significant negative NDS. This dislocation suggests a potential pullback or sideways movement unless the narrative catches up. Continued posi 2026-05-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ARM's price has surged ahead of its narrative, reflected by a significant negative NDS of -227.3 and a relative return of +45.9%. Despite a strong position in architecture licensing for AI chips, the market seems to have overbought ARM, with its price appreciating faster than its 2026-05-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ARM's price continues to outpace its narrative, as its venture into AI chip architecture licensing garners enthusiasm but lacks concrete results. The current price-led state suggests a potential pullback unless the narrative catches up with the elevated expectations. 2026-05-31 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ARM's price surge, driven by its expansion into AI chip licensing, is ahead of its narrative, as indicated by a significant NDS of -135.2. While the narrative around AI chips is gaining traction, the current price level seems unsustainable without further narrative support, sugge 2026-06-01 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ARM's price continues to lead its narrative, driven by its strategic expansion into AI chip architecture licensing. Despite a narrative dislocation score of -73.6, ARM's relative return of +15.1% indicates strong market confidence in its growth potential. This momentum is likely Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-24 FIRST
bearish cont. 0.65
“Over the next 1-2 months, ARM is expected to continue facing pricing pressure despite a strong narrative around architecture licensing for AI chips. The current trajectory shows a disconnect between narrative strength and price performance.”
2026-01-02
inflect. pending 0.65
“The current price-led state suggests volatility ahead, with a narrative indicating potential growth in AI chip architecture licensing. Expect some fluctuations as the market digests these developments over the next couple of months.”
2026-02-10
bullish cont. 0.75
“The confirmed state and strong narrative around AI chip architecture licensing suggest a continuation of positive momentum in the next 1-2 months, despite recent fluctuations in narrative dislocation scores.”
2026-03-19
bearish cont. 0.70
“The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on ARM's pricing as the narrative remains negative and the dislocation score worsens significantly. The structural indicators suggest that the company may struggle to regain upward momentum in the short term.”
2026-04-27
bullish cont. 0.70
“The structural picture indicates a continuation of positive price movement as narrative strength aligns with confirmed state. ARM's architecture licensing in AI chips is gaining traction, suggesting further upside potential in the coming months.”
2026-06-01 TODAY
bullish cont. 0.70
“ARM's price continues to lead its narrative, driven by its strategic expansion into AI chip architecture licensing. Despite a narrative dislocation score of -73.6, ARM's relative return of +15.1% indicates strong market confidence in its growth potential. This momentum is likely ”
L3 Expectation Lifecycle Field BUILT V1
Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.
adds Turns ARM's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today 77 theses tracked over the window; 2 active today, 0 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 77 · strengthened 2 · weakened 1 · contradicted 14 · retired 77.
ARM’s expectation theses 30 theses shown · 77 total
↑ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
↓ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
↓ AI-driven growth and stock performance
↓ Super Micro Computer stock analysis
─ AI investment strategies for 2026
↓ Semiconductor sector dynamics and challenges
↑ Dell Technologies Growth and Challenges
↓ Dell Technologies Growth and Challenges
↑ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
↑ AI investment strategies and market outlook
─ AI investment strategies and market outlook
─ AI-driven semiconductor market dynamics
↓ Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
↑ Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
↓ AI chip market dynamics and competition
─ AI chip market dynamics and competition
─ Super Micro's AI and market dynamics
↑ AMD's AI Growth and Partnerships
↑ Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
─ Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
↓ Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
↓ Chip Manufacturing and AI Partnerships
↑ Broadcom's AI chip partnerships surge
↓ AI investment and workforce dynamics
↓ AI investment landscape shifts
↓ AI-driven chip market dynamics
─ AI-driven chip market dynamics
↑ AI-driven chip market dynamics
● born▲ strengthened▼ weakened✕ contradicted○ retired
2026-01-02
1 active thesis
2026-02-10
1 active thesis
2026-03-19
1 active thesis
2026-04-27
1 active thesis
L4 Performance Field BUILT V1
Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.
adds Closes the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
today System-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. ARM appears in 21 public regions and 10 limited, including 6 inverted.
ARM appears in 60 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · direction sample 5d hit 20d hit actors
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
n=61
51% (+3pp)
43% (-7pp)
19
↓ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
n=48
54% (+6pp)
63% (+13pp)
16
↓ AI stock market dynamics and trends
n=47
32% (-16pp)
35% (-14pp)
15
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
n=45
44% (-3pp)
27% (-23pp)
18
↓ AI-driven growth and stock performance
n=39
56% (+9pp)
54% (+4pp)
16
↓ AI efficiency breakthroughs and innovations
n=31
45% (-3pp)
58% (+9pp)
13
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).