L0 Event Field BUILT
Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.
adds Captures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming META, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today 2,699 events naming META in the 131-day window where every layer has coverage (3,956 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming META 2,699 total · peak 109 on 04-29
Peak day sample: “Facebook, Instagram charged with breaching rules, must do more to protect kids below 13, EU says”
Minor gaps 13 of 131 days in this window had zero events for META — longest gap 7 consecutive days. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
L1 Narrative Field BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED
Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.
adds Places META inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
today Primary cluster: “meta / platforms / mexico” . Density (7d): 0.144 (momentum +0.011 , novelty 0.42 ). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
META’s primary cluster over time 102 distinct clusters · 108 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2026-01-02
AI investment strategies for 2026
2d in this narrative
2026-02-10
Meta's Strategic Shifts and Challenges
2d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Child safety regulations in tech
7d in this narrative
2026-04-27
Meta's strategic shifts and layoffs
27d in this narrative
L2 Expectation Field BUILT V1
Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.
adds Turns META's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
today Latest: bullish continuation at conviction 0.70 . “META is currently in a repricing state with a high narrative dislocation score indicating that its strong narrative around AI chips and data center build-out is not fully reflected in its price. The recent shift from a divergence state suggests that the market is beginning to rec”
META’s daily expectation 129 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — META's narrative around AI chips and data center expansion is gaining traction, with recent price movements starting to reflect this positive sentiment. Continued focus on monetizing Threads and WhatsApp could enhance performance further in the coming months. 2025-11-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a strong narrative score and improving relative performance, META is poised for continued upward movement in the next 1-2 months. The company’s focus on AI chips and monetization strategies appears to align positively with market expectations. 2025-11-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's current structural indicators suggest a positive trajectory in the next 1-2 months, driven by improvements in narrative and relative performance. The company may benefit from its AI initiatives and ad attribution recovery. 2025-12-01 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural indicators suggest a bullish outlook driven by strong narrative momentum and relative performance. Continued focus on AI chips and monetization strategies is likely to sustain positive sentiment in the near term. 2025-12-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — META is positioned for continued growth as its narrative strength and relative performance indicate a positive trajectory. The focus on AI chips and monetization of Threads and WhatsApp could drive further gains in the coming months. 2025-12-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure on META's stock as the repricing phase reflects the struggles in monetizing AI initiatives while managing losses in Reality Labs. The narrative strength remains stable, but the market's skepticism about profitability could weigh down 2025-12-04 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — META's narrative strength around AI chips and monetization strategies is expected to drive positive momentum in the near term. Continued focus on cost management and ad attribution recovery suggests a favorable trajectory for the upcoming months. 2025-12-05 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — META is currently in an early state with a mixed narrative score indicating potential challenges in sustaining momentum. The recent drop in narrative suggests a need for strategic shifts to counterbalance losses in Reality Labs while leveraging its ad business. 2025-12-08 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests a cautionary stance as the narrative weakens despite positive relative returns. Focus on monetization strategies and cost management will be critical. 2025-12-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, META may continue to face challenges as market sentiment shifts towards the repricing of its narrative. The recent decline in narrative strength indicates potential difficulties in sustaining investor confidence amidst ongoing losses in Reality Labs. 2025-12-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty as the narrative around AI chips and monetization strategies remains unclear. Watch for potential recovery signals in ad attribution and custom silicon developments. 2025-12-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued uncertainty as the narrative around AI chips and monetization does not translate into positive price action. The divergence with sector peers adds pressure. 2025-12-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Given the current repricing state and the lagging narrative, META may continue to face downward pressure in the near term despite a positive outlook on AI initiatives. The recovery in ad attribution is not yet translating into price action. 2025-12-15 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — As of now, META's narrative is struggling to translate into price movement, indicating potential volatility ahead. The unclear state suggests a cautious approach as the market awaits clearer signals on revenue recovery and narrative alignment. 2025-12-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current price-led state and a negative narrative dislocation score, META is likely to face continued price pressure in the near term. The failure of narrative to lift the price suggests a challenging environment ahead. 2025-12-17 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META is positioned for potential upward momentum as the narrative surrounding AI chips and data centers continues to strengthen, despite recent pricing discrepancies. The ongoing monetization efforts from Threads and WhatsApp could further bolster performance in the coming months 2025-12-18 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a strong narrative score and early state classification, META is positioned for potential price appreciation as the AI platform narrative solidifies. However, sustained losses in Reality Labs may temper overall gains. 2025-12-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, META is expected to maintain its upward trajectory as the narrative around AI chips and data center investments strengthens, despite ongoing challenges in Reality Labs. The positive NDS indicates a favorable market response to its strategic initiatives. 2025-12-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — As of now, META is experiencing a repricing phase where the narrative around AI chips and monetization efforts is not translating positively into market performance. The next couple of months may see continued volatility as the market assesses the sustainability of its ad-busines 2025-12-23 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, META is in a repricing phase with a strong narrative but lagging relative performance. The upcoming months may see a potential stabilization as the market digests recent developments. 2025-12-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, META may face continued pressure as the repricing state suggests a struggle to align its narrative with stock performance. The focus on AI and monetization strategies might not fully offset the ongoing losses in Reality Labs. 2025-12-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure on META's stock as it grapples with repricing amidst a strong narrative but lagging relative performance. The focus will remain on balancing Reality Labs losses with ad revenue recovery. 2025-12-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, META may continue to face pricing pressure despite strong narrative support from AI initiatives. The trajectory suggests potential stabilization as the ad business recovers, but challenges in Reality Labs could temper growth expectations. 2025-12-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued challenges as the repricing trend persists, with potential pressures from Reality Labs losses and lagging ad revenue recovery. However, ongoing AI initiatives may provide some support. 2025-12-31 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, META's trajectory may stabilize as the market digests the current repricing phase, but challenges remain with narrative alignment and competitive pressures. The focus on monetization strategies will be crucial. 2026-01-02 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, META is likely to experience volatility as it navigates the repricing phase, with potential for stabilization as narrative aligns with market pricing. Focus on monetization strategies and AI developments will be critical. 2026-01-05 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — META is currently in a repricing phase with a strong narrative around AI chips and data center expansion. The structural indicators suggest potential stabilization, but volatility remains due to recent price movements. 2026-01-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see ongoing challenges as the market continues to reprice META's value amidst its heavy investments in AI and Reality Labs. The current narrative strength remains high, but persistent losses and relative underperformance against peers indicate potential he 2026-01-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on META's stock price as the narrative around AI chips and data center build-out struggles to translate into positive price movement. The repricing state indicates a lack of confidence in the current business fundamentals. 2026-01-08 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The coming months may see volatility as the market grapples with META's unclear positioning in the AI sector. The lack of follow-through in price and narrative suggests a cautious approach is warranted. 2026-01-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative struggles to gain traction against recent price declines. The potential for recovery hinges on monetization efforts and overcoming current narrative dislocation. 2026-01-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as narrative strength fails to translate into price recovery. Focus on monetization efforts and silicon strategy could provide some support. 2026-01-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative struggles to translate into price performance. Focus on the monetization strategies and custom silicon ramp. 2026-01-14 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — META is experiencing a repricing phase with a strong narrative surrounding AI chips and data center build-out. While the company's ad business is generating cash, the ongoing losses from Reality Labs may weigh on sentiment in the near term. 2026-01-15 · neutral_macro · conv 0.40 — The near-term outlook suggests a struggle for META as it navigates unclear narratives and a negative relative return. Potential for stabilization exists if execution on monetization strategies improves. 2026-01-16 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative remains unclear and the recent trajectory shows no decisive follow-through. Focus on the evolving monetization strategies and the performance of Reality Labs will be crucial. 2026-01-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around AI chips and monetization strategies remains unclear. The recent price action suggests potential for a turnaround, but underlying structural challenges persist. 2026-01-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's narrative around AI chips and data center expansion remains strong, but the persistent repricing state indicates continued price lagging against narrative strength. Expect ongoing challenges in translating narrative into price gains over the next couple of months. 2026-01-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price-led action, but the negative narrative dislocation suggests potential challenges ahead. The company's reliance on ad revenue while facing losses in Reality Labs could weigh on performance. 2026-01-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests continued price-led behavior with a strong divergence between narrative and performance. The outlook remains bearish as the company faces challenges in translating positive narrative momentum into meaningful price growth. 2026-01-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Meta's price remains under pressure despite a strong narrative around AI chips and data center expansion. The persistent price-led state indicates a strong disconnect that could continue to hinder upward momentum in the near term. 2026-01-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on META's price due to a persistent narrative dislocation, as the positive narrative around AI chips and data center build-out fails to translate into price performance. The market's focus on short-term gains may hinder any 2026-01-28 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — META is positioned at an early state with signs of recovery in relative performance, but narrative dislocation indicates potential headwinds. The next 1-2 months could see volatility as the market assesses the sustainability of its AI strategy and ad business recovery. 2026-01-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Despite a confirmed narrative around AI chips and data center investments, the recent trajectory shows a struggle to maintain upward momentum in price. Expect fluctuations as the market grapples with narrative strength versus pricing performance. 2026-01-30 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests potential for stabilization as the narrative around AI chips and monetization efforts continues to develop, despite recent price pressures. Investors may be cautious given the divergence seen in the sector. 2026-02-02 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — META is positioned in an early state with a narrative that remains compelling, yet price movement has been subdued. The next 1-2 months may see stabilization as the market assesses the impact of its AI initiatives and ad recovery efforts. 2026-02-03 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The structural state indicates a mixed outlook, with confirmed narrative strength but recent price pressures. Potential for stabilization exists if narrative momentum is maintained. 2026-02-04 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, META may experience volatility as it grapples with narrative pressures and mixed price responses. The focus on AI chips and data center expansion could provide some uplift, but sustained losses from Reality Labs may weigh on overall performance. 2026-02-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing pressure as the strong narrative around AI fails to translate into price gains. The current divergence between narrative and price suggests a challenging environment. 2026-02-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's divergence indicates ongoing challenges in translating strong narrative into price performance. The structural pressures from competition and market sentiment may hinder recovery in the near term. 2026-02-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The outlook for META suggests continued pricing challenges as the narrative around AI chips and data centers struggles to translate into positive price movement. Despite a strong narrative, sustained losses in Reality Labs and a lag in ad recovery may further pressure performance 2026-02-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the market assesses META's AI initiatives and their impact on the ad business. The unclear state suggests potential for both upside and downside as sentiment stabilizes. 2026-02-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, META is likely to continue facing repricing pressures as the market weighs its AI investments against ongoing losses in Reality Labs. The narrative around AI chips and monetization strategies will be crucial in shaping investor sentiment. 2026-02-12 · neutral_macro · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty as META navigates its AI platform strategy and the impact of its Reality Labs investments. The lack of follow-through in relative performance suggests a cautious approach may be prudent. 2026-02-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months are likely to be challenging as the narrative and state remain unclear. The recent losses from Reality Labs may continue to weigh on performance, despite potential monetization efforts. 2026-02-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, META is experiencing a repricing phase with a slight recovery in narrative dynamics. The trajectory suggests potential stabilization, but continued scrutiny on profitability and competition remains critical. 2026-02-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.60 — Despite a strong narrative around AI chips and data center build-out, META's price is lagging behind expectations, indicating a bearish continuation in the near term. The recent repricing suggests potential for further downside as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-02-19 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the market reassesses META's pricing against its narrative of AI chips and data center investments. A potential inflection point could emerge if narrative alignment strengthens. 2026-02-20 · neutral_macro · conv 0.60 — In the next 1-2 months, META's trajectory is likely to remain mixed as the narrative around AI chips and data center developments struggles to translate into price momentum. Continued losses in Reality Labs may weigh on overall sentiment. 2026-02-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — META's structural state indicates continued repricing pressures, with narrative strength not translating into price gains. The AI disruption theme weighs heavily, suggesting a challenging path ahead over the next couple of months. 2026-02-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — As of now, the repricing state suggests continued downward pressure on META's stock, despite a relatively stable narrative around AI chips and monetization efforts. The lack of strong upward momentum indicates potential challenges in sustaining investor confidence in the near ter 2026-02-25 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, META is likely to continue experiencing pricing challenges as it navigates a complex narrative landscape. The focus on AI chips and data center expansion will be critical, but sustained losses in Reality Labs could weigh on overall performance. 2026-02-26 · neutral_macro · conv 0.40 — The near-term outlook suggests continued repricing as META navigates challenges in the AI platform sector. The narrative around AI chips and data center build-out remains, but recent fluctuations indicate uncertainty in momentum. 2026-02-27 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the market evaluates META's pricing against its narrative of AI chip and data center investments. A cautious recovery could emerge if monetization efforts gain traction. 2026-03-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests potential stabilization as the narrative around AI chips and data center investments gains traction. However, the ongoing repricing may lead to fluctuations as the market digests these developments. 2026-03-03 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Expect continued upward momentum as the narrative aligns with price movements. The early state indicates potential for further gains, especially with the recovery in ad attribution. 2026-03-04 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The positive narrative surrounding AI chips and data center build-out is beginning to support price stabilization. Continued focus on monetization strategies may enhance momentum in the coming months. 2026-03-05 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META is likely to experience a bullish continuation as the AI narrative strengthens, despite some recent pricing challenges. The momentum in narrative alignment suggests potential for price recovery in the coming months. 2026-03-06 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests potential stabilization as the narrative around AI chips and monetization strategies gains traction. However, continued losses in Reality Labs may create headwinds. 2026-03-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — META's narrative remains strong, but recent repricing indicates a potential inflection point. As the AI strategy unfolds, sustained losses in Reality Labs could weigh on momentum. 2026-03-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued challenges as the repricing state persists, with the narrative around AI chips and data center build-out not translating into positive price movement. The ad business may struggle to fully recover amidst sustained losses from Realit 2026-03-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates continued challenges as the repricing phase persists, with relative performance lagging. Expect pressure on the stock as narrative strength fails to translate into price movement in the near term. 2026-03-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, META is likely to face continued pricing pressure as the narrative around its AI initiatives struggles to translate into positive returns. The ongoing losses from Reality Labs may weigh on overall performance despite potential monetization efforts. 2026-03-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — META is currently in a repricing phase with strong narrative support, but it faces challenges in relative performance. The upcoming months may see volatility as the market reassesses its AI strategy and monetization efforts. 2026-03-16 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see a stabilization in META's pricing as it navigates the impact of ongoing investments in AI chips and data centers. Despite current pricing lagging behind narrative strength, there is potential for recovery as monetization strategies mature. 2026-03-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, META's pricing structure suggests a cautious recovery as the narrative remains strong but faces challenges in execution. Monitoring the ad attribution recovery and monetization efforts will be critical. 2026-03-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, META is likely to face continued pricing pressure despite a solid narrative around AI chips and monetization strategies. The current repricing state suggests challenges in aligning price with narrative strength. 2026-03-19 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — META's recent trajectory indicates a potential inflection point as it grapples with sustained losses in Reality Labs while leveraging its ad business. The upcoming months may see a critical examination of monetization strategies and recovery efforts in ad attribution. 2026-03-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — META's narrative remains strong with a focus on AI chips and data centers, but pricing has not fully aligned with this positive momentum. A stabilization or recovery in relative performance may be anticipated in the coming months as the market adjusts. 2026-03-23 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — META is experiencing a critical phase of repricing as it navigates sustained losses from Reality Labs against its ad business. The trajectory indicates potential stabilization in narrative strength, but ongoing challenges in relative performance suggest caution in the near term. 2026-03-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — META is experiencing a repricing phase with sustained narrative strength but lagging relative performance. The focus on AI chips and monetization strategies suggests potential for future growth, but current pricing dynamics may limit immediate upside. 2026-03-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Despite a strong narrative around AI chips and data centers, META's price continues to lag, indicating ongoing repricing pressures. The next 1-2 months may see further challenges as the market recalibrates expectations. 2026-03-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a robust narrative around AI chips and data center expansion, META is experiencing a significant divergence where positive sentiment is failing to drive price increases. This trend is likely to persist in the short term as the market continues to underprice the narrative. 2026-03-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META is expected to continue facing challenges as the positive narrative around AI chips and data centers fails to translate into price gains. The divergence in performance is likely to persist in the near term. 2026-03-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's divergence indicates a challenging environment where positive narratives are not translating into price gains. Continued losses in Reality Labs and ongoing struggles in ad attribution recovery suggest a bearish outlook in the near term. 2026-03-31 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, META is experiencing a repricing phase, reflecting a mixed outlook for the next couple of months. While the narrative remains strong around AI chips and monetization efforts, the negative relative performance suggests potential volatility ahead. 2026-04-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next couple of months may see continued challenges for META as the narrative around AI fails to translate into price movement. The divergence from peer performance suggests that the market remains skeptical about META's recovery. 2026-04-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a strong narrative around AI chips and data center expansion, META is positioned for continued growth. The current early state suggests potential for price appreciation as the market begins to recognize these developments. 2026-04-06 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural state indicates a positive shift with a narrative score of 95 and a solid relative return. Momentum may build as the market digests the company's strategic advances in AI and monetization. 2026-04-07 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates a potential for continued recovery in the near term, driven by the positive narrative surrounding AI chips and monetization efforts. The trajectory suggests a stabilization phase, with possible upward momentum as the market begins to recognize the 2026-04-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's early state suggests a potential for upward momentum as it navigates the challenges of the AI sector. The narrative around AI chips and data center investments is gaining traction, albeit within a broader context of price pressures in software. 2026-04-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, META is likely to experience volatility as its AI initiatives begin to show promise, but ongoing pressures in the broader software sector may limit significant price appreciation. The focus on monetization and custom silicon ramp will be crucial. 2026-04-10 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — META's confirmed state indicates a solid narrative foundation with recent recovery in relative performance. However, broader sector pressures suggest potential volatility ahead. 2026-04-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — As of now, META shows potential for recovery amid price pressure in the AI sector, driven by its ad-business resilience and strategic initiatives. The upcoming months may see a stabilization in prices as monetization efforts gain traction. 2026-04-14 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, META's performance may stabilize as it leverages its ad business and Llama strategy, though broader sector pressures could limit gains. Continued focus on monetization efforts is crucial. 2026-04-15 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Given the early state and positive narrative dynamics, META is likely to sustain its upward trajectory in the next couple of months. The recovery in ad attribution and ongoing investments in AI chips will support growth. 2026-04-16 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — META's current state reflects early momentum as it navigates challenges in Reality Labs while leveraging ad-business strengths. The next 1-2 months may see a stabilization or slight recovery, contingent on the success of monetization strategies and market reception of AI initiati 2026-04-17 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's structural state indicates a bullish continuation as the company leverages its AI chip advancements and data center build-out. The recent recovery in relative performance suggests growing investor confidence, although sustained losses in Reality Labs are a concern. 2026-04-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — META is currently in a repricing phase, with structural indicators suggesting a potential stabilization in the near term. The focus on AI chips and ad attribution recovery could support a gradual return to growth. 2026-04-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, META is likely to continue experiencing pricing pressure as the narrative around AI chips and data centers struggles to translate into stock performance. The recent divergence indicates a potential consolidation phase. 2026-04-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, META is likely to continue experiencing a repricing phase as strong narrative elements fail to translate into price recovery. The ongoing losses in Reality Labs may hinder momentum despite positive developments in monetization efforts. 2026-04-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state suggests that META's stock may continue to face downward pressure in the near term, as the narrative around AI chips and data center build-out is not translating into price gains. Continued losses from Reality Labs against ad revenue could weigh heavil 2026-04-24 · neutral_macro · conv 0.60 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the market digests ongoing developments in META's AI strategies and monetization efforts. The narrative remains strong, but relative performance lags behind peers. 2026-04-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — META exhibits a sustained repricing phase with price lagging behind a strong AI narrative. Despite positive narrative dynamics, the historical trend suggests continued pressure on price in the near term. 2026-04-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the market struggles to align price with the strong narrative around AI chips and data centers. The persistent losses from Reality Labs and challenges in monetization may weigh on performance. 2026-04-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates continued repricing, with price lagging behind a strong narrative. Expect further challenges as the market remains skeptical despite positive developments in AI initiatives. 2026-04-30 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see fluctuations as META's narrative diverges from its stock performance, driven by ongoing investments in AI and the recovery of ad attribution. However, sustained losses from Reality Labs may weigh on investor sentiment. 2026-05-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Despite a robust narrative surrounding AI chips and data center expansion, META's price continues to lag significantly. The divergence suggests ongoing challenges in translating positive sentiment into market performance over the next couple of months. 2026-05-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued challenges as the divergence between narrative and relative performance persists, with ongoing losses in Reality Labs weighing on overall sentiment. However, improvements in ad attribution and monetization efforts could provide some stabiliza 2026-05-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a robust narrative around AI chips and data center investments, META's stock continues to underperform relative to expectations. The divergence suggests persistent skepticism from the market regarding its growth potential in the short term. 2026-05-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current divergence state and persistent negative relative performance, META is likely to face continued downward pressure in the near term. The positive narrative surrounding AI chips and data centers is not translating into price appreciation, suggesting a challenging 2026-05-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around AI chips and data center build-out, META is facing significant price lagging, indicating continued challenges. The repricing state suggests a potential struggle to regain upward momentum in the coming months. 2026-05-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's outlook remains challenged as the divergence between its strong narrative and poor price performance continues. The structural issues suggest a likelihood of further price pressure in the 1-2 month horizon. 2026-05-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's narrative strength remains high, but the persistent divergence suggests that the market is not rewarding its AI initiatives. Expect continued price pressure as the narrative fails to translate into positive returns. 2026-05-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's pricing continues to lag its strong narrative around AI chips and data center growth, indicating a bearish outlook as the market reassesses its valuation. The recent divergence suggests potential ongoing struggles in realizing price appreciation despite a positive narrativ 2026-05-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued challenges for META as the narrative surrounding AI chips and data centers fails to translate into price appreciation. The current repricing state indicates a bearish trend may persist as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-05-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The upcoming months may see continued price pressure as the narrative around AI advancements fails to translate into price appreciation. The divergence from sector peers suggests a challenging environment for META's stock performance. 2026-05-15 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — META's ongoing repricing state suggests a complex near-term outlook, with narrative strength not translating into price movement. The divergence from peers indicates potential challenges ahead, though the narrative remains robust. 2026-05-18 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — META's early state suggests potential for price improvement, but recent divergence indicates caution. The narrative surrounding AI chips and data center strategies is strong, yet price performance has not fully aligned, creating an inflection point to monitor closely. 2026-05-19 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — META is experiencing a period where its price is beginning to follow its strong narrative, particularly around AI chips and data center initiatives. The transition from a narrative-led to a price-leading state suggests that recent developments, such as the MTIA custom silicon ram 2026-05-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — META's recent shift to an 'early' state with price starting to follow suggests a potential stabilization after a period of narrative-driven divergence. The company's ad attribution recovery post-ATT and the monetization efforts in Threads and WhatsApp will be critical in maintain 2026-05-21 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's narrative around AI chips and data center expansion continues to lead its price, suggesting potential for a bullish catch-up as the market reprices. The recent shift to a 'REPRICING' state after a period of divergence indicates the market may begin aligning with the positi 2026-05-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.70 — META is experiencing a repricing phase, with its narrative strength not yet reflected in its price. The sustained losses from Reality Labs are weighing heavily against its ad-business cash generation, and this dynamic is likely to continue in the near term. The company’s efforts 2026-05-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's narrative strength, supported by its AI chips and data center initiatives, is not yet reflected in its stock performance. The sustained losses at Reality Labs are a known drag, yet the company's open-source Llama strategy and MTIA silicon ramp offer significant upside pote 2026-05-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META's current repricing state, with a narrative leading the price, signals potential for upward price correction as the market catches up with its strategic developments. The MTIA custom silicon ramp and recovery in ad attribution post-ATT are likely to contribute positively. Th 2026-05-28 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — META's ongoing narrative strength, driven by AI chip and data center strategies, continues to outpace its stock performance. The persistent losses from Reality Labs and the challenge of monetizing new platforms like Threads and WhatsApp are weighing heavily, creating a tension th 2026-05-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — META's current repricing phase is characterized by a negative narrative dislocation score, indicating that the narrative is not yet fully reflected in its stock price. The company's strategy involving the Llama open-source initiative and MTIA custom silicon ramp is crucial for ma 2026-05-31 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — META's trajectory shows a shift from a strong narrative lead to macro-driven price movement, indicating an inflection point. The company's MTIA custom silicon ramp and Llama open-source strategy are pivotal, but sustained losses in Reality Labs could weigh heavily if monetization 2026-06-01 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — META is currently in a repricing state with a high narrative dislocation score indicating that its strong narrative around AI chips and data center build-out is not fully reflected in its price. The recent shift from a divergence state suggests that the market is beginning to rec Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-25 FIRST
bullish cont. 0.75
“META's narrative around AI chips and data center expansion is gaining traction, with recent price movements starting to reflect this positive sentiment. Continued focus on monetizing Threads and WhatsApp could enhance performance further in the coming months.”
2026-01-02
inflect. pending 0.65
“In the next 1-2 months, META is likely to experience volatility as it navigates the repricing phase, with potential for stabilization as narrative aligns with market pricing. Focus on monetization strategies and AI developments will be critical.”
2026-02-10
inflect. pending 0.40
“The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the market assesses META's AI initiatives and their impact on the ad business. The unclear state suggests potential for both upside and downside as sentiment stabilizes.”
2026-03-19
inflect. pending 0.65
“META's recent trajectory indicates a potential inflection point as it grapples with sustained losses in Reality Labs while leveraging its ad business. The upcoming months may see a critical examination of monetization strategies and recovery efforts in ad attribution.”
2026-04-27
bearish cont. 0.65
“META exhibits a sustained repricing phase with price lagging behind a strong AI narrative. Despite positive narrative dynamics, the historical trend suggests continued pressure on price in the near term.”
2026-06-01 TODAY
bullish cont. 0.70
“META is currently in a repricing state with a high narrative dislocation score indicating that its strong narrative around AI chips and data center build-out is not fully reflected in its price. The recent shift from a divergence state suggests that the market is beginning to rec”
L3 Expectation Lifecycle Field BUILT V1
Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.
adds Turns META's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today 64 theses tracked over the window; 3 active today, 1 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 64 · strengthened 1 · weakened 3 · contradicted 5 · retired 67. Current persistent thesis: “Meta's strategic shifts and layoffs” (neutral, conviction 0.60, 12 daily versions).
Current persistent thesis
“Meta's strategic shifts and layoffs”
direction neutral conviction 0.60 daily versions 12 tracked 2026-03-31 → 2026-05-20
META’s expectation theses 24 theses shown · 64 total
─ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
↓ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
↑ AI-driven growth and stock performance
↓ AI-driven growth and stock performance
─ Meta's office return and AI shifts
─ Tech giants navigate AI and regulation
─ Meta's AI Strategy and Market Response
↓ Market Sentiment on Datadog and Trade Desk
─ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
─ Meta's AI and nuclear strategy
↓ Tech labor market upheaval
─ AI investment strategies and market outlook
─ Meta's AI investment and performance
↓ Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
─ Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
↑ Media Mergers and Regulatory Challenges
↑ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
↓ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
─ Child safety regulations in tech
↓ Meta's strategic shifts and layoffs
─ Meta's strategic shifts and layoffs
↑ Meta's strategic shifts and layoffs
↑ AI efficiency breakthroughs and innovations
↓ AI funding and talent dynamics
● born▲ strengthened▼ weakened✕ contradicted○ retired
2026-01-02
1 active thesis
2026-02-10
1 active thesis
2026-03-19
2 active theses
2026-04-27
2 active theses
L4 Performance Field BUILT V1
Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.
adds Closes the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
today System-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. META appears in 22 public regions and 3 limited, including 4 inverted.
META appears in 36 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · direction sample 5d hit 20d hit actors
↓ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
n=65
55% (+8pp)
55% (+6pp)
17
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
n=61
51% (+3pp)
43% (-7pp)
19
↓ Arista Networks growth and valuation analysis
n=48
54% (+6pp)
63% (+13pp)
16
↑ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
n=48
58% (+10pp)
54% (+5pp)
11
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
n=45
44% (-3pp)
27% (-23pp)
18
↓ Tech giants navigate AI and regulation
n=40
65% (+17pp)
53% (+3pp)
15
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).