L0 Event Field BUILT
Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.
adds Captures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming ASML, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today 614 events naming ASML in the 132-day window where every layer has coverage (1,319 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming ASML 614 total · peak 55 on 01-28
Peak day sample: “Texas Instruments, ASML Lift Chip Stocks Higher”
Some gaps 27 of 132 days in this window had zero events for ASML — longest gap 6 consecutive days. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
L1 Narrative Field BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED
Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.
adds Places ASML inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
today Primary cluster: “super / micro / asml” . Density (7d): 0.236 (momentum +0.035 , novelty 0.26 ). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
ASML’s primary cluster over time 105 distinct clusters · 116 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2026-01-02
AI-driven semiconductor investment outlook
3d in this narrative
2026-02-10
ASML market momentum and growth
2d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Super Micro's AI and market dynamics
5d in this narrative
2026-04-27
AMD stock outlook and market dynamics
2d in this narrative
L2 Expectation Field BUILT V1
Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.
adds Turns ASML's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
today Latest: mixed rotational at conviction 0.60 . “ASML's narrative of EUV demand driven by the AI chip cycle remains robust, but the price has struggled to catch up, as evidenced by its current repricing state with a positive NDS of +20.2. This suggests a potential for price to start aligning with the narrative if market conditi”
ASML’s daily expectation 130 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests continued pricing pressure as ASML's narrative around EUV demand does not translate into price performance. The repricing state indicates a lagging reaction to positive narrative developments. 2025-11-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued repricing pressure in the near term, as the narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle struggles to translate into price gains. Expect further volatility as the market reassesses valuations. 2025-11-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on ASML's valuation, despite strong narrative support from EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Expect limited upside in the near term as the narrative struggles to translate into price movement. 2025-11-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The early state suggests a favorable trend as EUV demand aligns with the AI chip cycle. Expect continued price support as the narrative solidifies. 2025-12-01 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The confirmed state suggests a positive trajectory for ASML driven by strong EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Expect continued bullish momentum in the near term given the favorable relative performance. 2025-12-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The near-term outlook suggests continued pressure on ASML's performance due to declining narrative support and negative dislocation scores, despite a relative outperformance. The market may react cautiously to the evolving demand dynamics in the semiconductor sector. 2025-12-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The outlook suggests continued pressure on ASML's performance due to the negative narrative dislocation score and recent repricing patterns. Expect potential further adjustments in the coming months as market sentiment remains cautious. 2025-12-04 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With confirmed positive momentum and strong narrative support, ASML is positioned for continued growth over the next 1-2 months as demand for EUV technology aligns with the AI chip cycle. 2025-12-05 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural indicators suggest a positive outlook in the next 1-2 months, driven by strong EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Expect momentum to continue as price begins to align with the narrative. 2025-12-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the next 1-2 months, ASML is expected to maintain its upward momentum as demand for EUV technology continues to align with the AI chip cycle. The current early state suggests potential for price appreciation. 2025-12-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ASML is likely to face continued repricing pressures as the narrative around EUV demand stabilizes but remains tied to the uncertain AI chip cycle, with recent performance lagging behind expectations. 2025-12-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued repricing pressure as the narrative around EUV demand remains strong but the market response is lagging. Price performance relative to the narrative indicates potential further declines. 2025-12-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued repricing pressure as the narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle remains strong but is not translating into price appreciation. With peers facing similar narrative dislocation, ASML may struggle to gain traction. 2025-12-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture suggests continued repricing as ASML's narrative around EUV demand is not translating into price action. Expect a challenging environment in the coming months, with potential for further divergence from positive narratives in the sector. 2025-12-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML is experiencing a repricing phase, with a strong narrative around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle, yet prices are lagging behind this narrative. Expect continued pressure on the stock as it consolidates. 2025-12-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML is likely to continue experiencing repricing pressures as the narrative around EUV demand fails to translate into positive price movement. The persistent lagging performance suggests further caution in the near term. 2025-12-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML is experiencing a repricing phase with a strong narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle. However, the persistent negative relative performance suggests continued bearish pressure in the near term. 2025-12-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the divergence state and the narrative not being reflected in price, ASML is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term. The ongoing story around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle is yet to translate into positive price movements. 2025-12-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ASML may continue to face downward pressure as repricing persists amid a lagging narrative and negative relative performance. The demand tied to the AI chip cycle appears uncertain, which could hinder recovery. 2025-12-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The near-term outlook indicates continued repricing pressure as market sentiment lags behind the narrative surrounding EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle. Expect fluctuations as the market reassesses its positioning. 2025-12-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on ASML's pricing as the narrative surrounding EUV demand weakens, despite potential ties to the AI chip cycle. The repricing state suggests a cautious outlook. 2025-12-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ASML is likely to experience continued repricing as the narrative around EUV demand struggles to gain traction amid mixed market signals. The current dislocation suggests further downside risk if the narrative does not stabilize. 2025-12-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued repricing pressures, with narrative support weakening. Expect challenges in momentum as EUV demand ties to the AI chip cycle may not fully materialize in the near term. 2025-12-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates continued repricing pressure, with narratives weakening around EUV demand. Expect a cautious outlook as the market adjusts to recent trends. 2025-12-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on ASML's pricing as the narrative around EUV demand weakens, despite slight positive relative performance. The repricing state indicates a cautious market sentiment. 2025-12-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The coming months may see fluctuations as ASML navigates a challenging macro environment, with narrative pressures stemming from the AI chip cycle. Expect potential volatility as market sentiment shifts. 2026-01-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — As of this date, ASML's price is led by a negative narrative surrounding EUV demand, indicating potential challenges in the near term. The significant narrative dislocation suggests that the market may continue to price in bearish expectations over the next couple of months. 2026-01-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The outlook for ASML appears bearish as the narrative surrounding EUV demand is weakening, reflected in the declining narrative score and significant negative NDS. Price is currently leading with a positive relative return, but the overall sentiment indicates potential challenges 2026-01-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates continued downward pressure on ASML's price, with negative narrative and dislocation scores suggesting a bearish continuation in the near term. Investors may remain cautious as EUV demand ties to the AI chip cycle show signs of strain. 2026-01-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests continued price pressure as the narrative around EUV demand is not sufficiently supporting current valuations. Expect a challenging 1-2 months as the market recalibrates expectations. 2026-01-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — As of now, ASML is experiencing significant price-led pressures with a declining narrative score. The near-term outlook suggests continued bearish momentum as the market recalibrates expectations around EUV demand in the AI chip cycle. 2026-01-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's price remains under pressure with a declining narrative and significant dislocation. The divergence in the semiconductor sector indicates a challenging environment for upward momentum in the coming months. 2026-01-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ASML is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative around EUV demand fails to translate into price gains. The current macro state suggests a challenging environment ahead, with potential for further dislocation. 2026-01-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the coming months, ASML is likely to struggle as the macro pressures and negative narrative dislocation persist. The divergence in narrative versus price action suggests continued bearish sentiment. 2026-01-14 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — ASML's trajectory indicates potential stabilization as it navigates early state conditions and macro influences. The recent narrative around EUV demand is under pressure, suggesting a cautious outlook in the next couple of months. 2026-01-15 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and strong narrative alignment, ASML is positioned for bullish momentum in the next couple of months, driven by EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. 2026-01-16 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With confirmed structural indicators and a positive narrative around EUV demand, ASML is positioned for continued growth in the upcoming months. The recent uptick in relative performance suggests strong market confidence. 2026-01-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — The structural picture indicates a continued positive trajectory for ASML, supported by confirmed demand in EUV technology linked to the AI chip cycle. Expect momentum to carry through the next couple of months. 2026-01-21 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ASML's positive narrative around EUV demand remains strong, supporting continued price confirmation. Expect stability and potential upward movement in the near term as the AI chip cycle progresses. 2026-01-22 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, ASML is experiencing confirmed narrative alignment with EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle, but the negative narrative dislocation score suggests potential headwinds. Watch for market reactions to the broader semiconductor landscape. 2026-01-23 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural state indicates a positive shift in price dynamics, with early signs of a bullish trend as EUV demand aligns with the AI chip cycle. Expect gradual upward movement over the next 1-2 months. 2026-01-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — ASML is positioned for potential growth driven by EUV demand related to the AI chip cycle, despite recent price divergence. A cautious upward trajectory may emerge in the next couple of months as the market reassesses its narrative alignment. 2026-01-27 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With confirmed positive narrative and strong demand for EUV tied to the AI chip cycle, ASML is positioned for continued growth in the near term. However, caution is warranted given broader sector divergence. 2026-01-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The early state suggests a positive trajectory for ASML, with strong narrative support from EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Expect continued bullish momentum in the short term as price begins to align with the narrative. 2026-01-29 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ASML is positioned for potential upward momentum as EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle appears to solidify. The early structural state suggests a favorable outlook, despite recent price lagging trends in the sector. 2026-01-30 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture suggests a positive trajectory for ASML in the coming months, supported by strong EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle. Price is beginning to align with the favorable narrative, indicating potential for further gains. 2026-02-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ASML is positioned for growth as EUV demand aligns with the AI chip cycle. The current early state indicates potential for sustained price appreciation in the near term. 2026-02-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state suggests continued downward pressure on ASML's price despite strong narrative support. The semiconductor sector is facing broader challenges that may limit recovery in the near term. 2026-02-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests continued repricing pressure despite strong EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Price may lag behind narrative as the sector faces broader headwinds. 2026-02-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — ASML is experiencing significant price lag despite a strong narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle. The repricing state suggests continued challenges in translating narrative strength into price performance over the next couple of months. 2026-02-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.60 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the narrative around EUV demand struggles to gain traction. The repricing state suggests that market participants are cautious, particularly in light of broader sector dynamics. 2026-02-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The current unclear state indicates a potential inflection point, but with negative narrative dislocation and peers diverging, caution is warranted. Expect fluctuations as the market assesses EUV demand's impact. 2026-02-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current price-led state with a negative narrative dislocation score, ASML may continue to face downward pressure in the near term. The market's focus on EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle suggests a cautious outlook as pricing adjustments unfold. 2026-02-11 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the price remains ahead of the narrative with a significant dislocation score. Market sentiment could shift as EUV demand is closely tied to the AI chip cycle, but current indicators suggest caution. 2026-02-12 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price volatility as the market assesses the implications of EUV demand in the context of the AI chip cycle. Structural pressures suggest a cautious outlook. 2026-02-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The immediate outlook suggests a potential stabilization as narrative clarity is lacking. Expect fluctuations as the market assesses EUV demand linked to AI chips. 2026-02-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months are likely to be turbulent as the narrative around EUV demand remains unclear, with potential volatility in price action. The sector's mixed signals, particularly from peers, suggest caution. 2026-02-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current state of ASML indicates persistent price-led pressure with a negative narrative dislocation score. Expect continued challenges as sentiment remains weak despite underlying demand factors tied to AI chip cycles. 2026-02-19 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, ASML is likely to experience volatile price movements as the market grapples with mixed signals regarding EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle. The narrative remains under pressure, suggesting cautious optimism may be warranted. 2026-02-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price-led dynamics with potential for narrative stabilization. Monitoring EUV demand amid the AI chip cycle will be critical. 2026-02-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's price remains under pressure despite strong EUV demand narratives. The persistent negative narrative dislocation suggests continued price challenges in the near term. 2026-02-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — ASML's current price-led state suggests potential challenges ahead as the narrative around EUV demand becomes less clear. The negative narrative dislocation score indicates a disconnect that could lead to volatility in the coming months. 2026-02-25 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price-led dynamics, but the narrative around EUV demand is becoming increasingly uncertain, which could lead to volatility. A cautious approach is advisable as market sentiment stabilizes. 2026-02-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around EUV demand and its correlation with the AI chip cycle remains unclear. The lack of follow-through in price actions suggests caution. 2026-02-27 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see increased volatility as the narrative around EUV demand and AI chip cycles begins to stabilize. Current unclear signals suggest potential for both upward and downward adjustments. 2026-03-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ASML may experience fluctuations driven by macroeconomic pressures and the uncertain narrative surrounding EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. The current state suggests a cautious outlook as it moves with the overall market. 2026-03-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates that despite positive narrative around EUV demand, ASML's price is likely to remain under pressure in the near term. Expect continued challenges as market sentiment struggles to align with the bullish narrative. 2026-03-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML is experiencing a divergence state with narrative strength failing to translate into price performance. The outlook remains bearish as the market does not appear to reward the positive EUV demand narrative tied to the AI chip cycle. 2026-03-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current divergence state suggests continued challenges for ASML as the positive narrative around EUV demand remains unrecognized in the market. Expect price pressure to persist over the next month as the story fails to gain traction. 2026-03-06 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Over the next couple of months, ASML may experience continued volatility as the divergence between narrative and market performance persists. The strong NDS suggests potential for recovery, but current relative performance remains concerning. 2026-03-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML is experiencing a repricing phase, with a narrative indicating a demand tied to the AI chip cycle. However, the recent relative performance is lagging, suggesting ongoing headwinds in the near term. 2026-03-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing pressures as the narrative around EUV demand stabilizes but remains fragile. Investors should watch for signs of recovery in sentiment linked to AI chip cycles. 2026-03-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — ASML is currently in a repricing phase, with narrative momentum tied to EUV demand and the AI chip cycle. However, the negative relative return suggests caution in the near term as the market reassesses its valuation. 2026-03-12 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the 1-2 month horizon, ASML may continue to experience volatility as it navigates the repricing phase, influenced by fluctuating EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. The mixed signals from the broader semiconductor sector suggest caution in the near term. 2026-03-13 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With confirmed price action and a positive narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle, ASML is expected to maintain its bullish trajectory in the coming months. The slight negative NDS suggests caution, but overall momentum remains strong. 2026-03-16 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a narrative indicating strong demand for EUV tied to the AI chip cycle, ASML is positioned for upward momentum in the near term. The recent positive NDS and relative performance suggest a continuation of this trend. 2026-03-17 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — ASML is currently experiencing a repricing phase, with demand dynamics tied to the AI chip cycle suggesting potential volatility. While the narrative remains strong, the recent trajectory indicates mixed signals that could impact short-term performance. 2026-03-18 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ASML is likely to see a continuation of its repricing trend as demand for EUV technology aligns with the AI chip cycle. However, the current pricing lag against the narrative indicates a cautious market sentiment. 2026-03-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Over the next 1-2 months, ASML is poised for a bullish trajectory as demand for EUV technology aligns with the growing AI chip cycle. The structural indicators suggest a recovering narrative and positive momentum. 2026-03-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML is positioned for continued bullish momentum as EUV demand remains closely tied to the AI chip cycle. The recent repricing indicates strong narrative support despite slight underperformance against benchmarks. 2026-03-23 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With strong narrative support around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle, ASML is likely to continue its positive trajectory in the near term. The early state indicates a favorable outlook as price begins to follow narrative strength. 2026-03-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Given the strong narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle, ASML is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the near term. The current early state suggests positive momentum as market conditions align. 2026-03-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ASML is positioned for a bullish continuation as EUV demand aligns with the AI chip cycle, and price momentum is starting to follow narrative improvements. The structural indicators suggest a strong potential for price appreciation in the near term. 2026-03-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's strong narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle suggests potential for continued upward momentum, despite recent price lagging. The repricing state indicates a positive shift that could enhance performance in the coming months. 2026-03-27 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a strong narrative around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle, ASML is well-positioned for continued price appreciation in the near term. The current early state suggests momentum is building as the price begins to follow the narrative more closely. 2026-03-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Despite a strong narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle, ASML is experiencing a repricing phase where price is lagging behind the narrative. Expect continued struggles in the near term as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-03-31 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued positive momentum driven by strong EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle, despite recent repricing pressures. ASML is likely to benefit from increasing market traction. 2026-04-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's narrative around EUV demand is not translating into price support, reflecting a continued repricing phase. The recent trajectory suggests a challenging environment that may persist in the near term. 2026-04-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The repricing state indicates a potential for continued upward momentum as the market aligns with the narrative around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Expect gradual price recovery in the next 1-2 months. 2026-04-06 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ASML is experiencing a repricing phase with strong narrative support related to EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. The trajectory indicates a positive outlook despite recent relative underperformance. 2026-04-07 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The current repricing state suggests a continued bullish outlook, supported by strong narrative momentum around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Expect stability and potential upward movement in the coming weeks. 2026-04-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As ASML's narrative around EUV demand gains traction, the early state indicates potential for price appreciation in the coming months. The positive NDS suggests a favorable outlook amidst sector pressures. 2026-04-09 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a strong narrative around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle, ASML appears positioned for continued positive momentum. Price is beginning to align with this narrative, suggesting a favorable outlook in the coming months. 2026-04-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — With confirmed positive narrative and robust relative performance, ASML is likely to continue benefiting from the growing EUV demand in the AI chip cycle over the next couple of months. 2026-04-13 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ASML's confirmed state and strong relative performance indicate a solid outlook fueled by sustained EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Expect continued upward momentum in the coming months. 2026-04-14 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ASML is positioned for a bullish continuation as confirmed demand for EUV technology aligns with the ongoing AI chip cycle. Despite a slight dip in narrative dislocation, the overall outlook remains positive with strong relative performance. 2026-04-15 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As of now, ASML is experiencing a repricing phase with strong narrative support around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Given the positive narrative dislocation score, expectations lean towards a bullish continuation in the next 1-2 months. 2026-04-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current divergence suggests that ASML's pricing is not aligning with the strong narrative of EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. This misalignment could lead to further bearish sentiment in the near term. 2026-04-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates ongoing challenges in aligning market perception with the strong narrative around EUV demand. Expect continued volatility as the market reassesses ASML's positioning amid the AI chip cycle. 2026-04-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The outlook for ASML suggests continued bearish pressure as the narrative around EUV demand remains unrecognized in the market. Divergence signals suggest challenges in aligning price with underlying demand. 2026-04-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — As of now, ASML's strong narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle is not translating into price gains. The divergence state suggests continued bearish pressure in the near term, with a possibility of further repricing if the trend persists. 2026-04-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML is likely to continue facing price challenges despite a robust narrative around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. The divergence between narrative strength and price performance suggests ongoing bearish pressure in the near term. 2026-04-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's current repricing state suggests ongoing pressure as price fails to align with a strong narrative around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Expect a continuation of this trend over the next month as the divergence with market sentiment persists. 2026-04-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ASML is likely to experience continued volatility as it navigates the repricing phase, influenced by fluctuating EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. While the narrative remains strong, relative performance suggests caution. 2026-04-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Despite robust narrative support around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle, ASML faces persistent price pressure and a divergence from its narrative, suggesting a challenging short-term outlook. The narrative strength is not translating into price gains, indicating potential 2026-04-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates continued price weakness despite a strong narrative around EUV demand. Expect further challenges in aligning market sentiment with underlying fundamentals over the next couple of months. 2026-04-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on ASML's stock as the narrative around EUV demand struggles to translate into price appreciation. Expect further challenges in aligning market sentiment with the underlying demand story over the next couple of months. 2026-04-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, ASML may continue to face pressure as the repricing aligns with a lagging narrative despite strong NDS. The overall market sentiment remains cautious amid the AI chip cycle. 2026-05-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the repricing state and the divergence from positive narrative, ASML is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term. The strong EUV demand narrative is not translating into price performance, suggesting a challenging environment ahead. 2026-05-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the persistent repricing state, ASML is likely to face continued downward pressure in the near term as the narrative around EUV demand remains under scrutiny amidst AI chip cycle dynamics. 2026-05-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The trajectory indicates continued pricing pressure, with narrative support failing to translate into price movement. Expect further challenges as the market reassesses EUV demand amidst a broader divergence in sentiment. 2026-05-06 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With confirmed structural support and positive relative performance, ASML is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle. Expect continued price strength in the near term. 2026-05-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as ASML's narrative around EUV demand struggles to translate into price gains. Given the divergence from sector peers, further downward pressure is likely if the narrative fails to improve. 2026-05-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With confirmed state and positive relative performance, ASML is positioned to benefit from sustained EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle. Expect continued price strength despite sector-wide divergence pressures. 2026-05-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — ASML is likely to experience continued price pressure as the market shifts focus towards commodity names in the semiconductor sector. The narrative surrounding EUV demand may not be sufficient to counteract the broader bearish sentiment. 2026-05-12 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see ASML's price stabilize as EUV demand remains tied to the AI chip cycle, but mixed pricing signals and divergence in narrative suggest caution. Continued scrutiny on overall sector performance could impact momentum. 2026-05-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, ASML is likely to experience further repricing as the narrative around EUV demand remains strong, yet the market struggles to reflect this in the price. Continued divergence among peers suggests a challenging environment. 2026-05-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued repricing pressure on ASML, with a narrative that is struggling to translate into positive price movement. Expect further challenges as broader sector trends weigh on sentiment. 2026-05-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see ongoing price struggles as the divergence between narrative strength and market performance persists. Continued monitoring of the AI chip cycle's impact on demand will be critical. 2026-05-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative around EUV demand fails to translate into price gains, reflecting a broader sector trend. Monitoring for signs of divergence with peers will be critical. 2026-05-19 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — ASML's narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle remains robust, but the price continues to lag, similar to peers like AMD and SNDK. Given its current repricing state with a positive NDS of +58.4, ASML may experience intermittent price gains, though they are unlikely 2026-05-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's current repricing state suggests that despite a strong narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle, the market is not fully endorsing this optimism. The recent shift from a 'story not being paid' state to repricing indicates a struggle to close the gap between na 2026-05-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's narrative around EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle remains strong, but the persistent repricing state and negative relative return indicate that the market is not yet rewarding this story. The company's NDS remains positive, suggesting a narrative lead, but with a -1.8% 2026-05-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's narrative around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle continues to lead its stock price, suggesting a bullish repricing is likely. The persistent positive narrative dislocation score (+1.0) indicates that the market has yet to fully price in the positive outlook. This su 2026-05-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's price has consistently led its narrative, driven by robust demand for EUV technology tied to the AI chip cycle. With a NDS of -35.6, the price is ahead, suggesting a potential for narrative catch-up as demand solidifies. The current price-led state indicates that further g 2026-05-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's current trajectory suggests a bullish continuation as its EUV demand is closely tied to the expanding AI chip cycle. The recent shift to a price-led state, with prices ahead of the narrative, aligns with the broader trend in the semiconductor sector where EUV technology re 2026-05-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's current state indicates a positive shift as the price begins to align with the strong narrative surrounding EUV demand driven by the AI chip cycle. The recent transition from a divergence state to confirmed suggests that the market is starting to recognize the underlying n 2026-05-29 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's price is beginning to align with the demand narrative for EUV technology driven by the AI chip cycle, as evidenced by its recent positive relative return of +5.5%. The narrative dislocation score, which has moved from a positive to a negative, suggests that price has caugh 2026-05-31 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — ASML's EUV demand, tied closely to the AI chip cycle, suggests continued narrative strength even as price lags. Given the current state of repricing, with a positive NDS of +7.8, the market is beginning to acknowledge ASML's story, albeit slowly. Expect gradual alignment as deman 2026-06-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — ASML's narrative of EUV demand driven by the AI chip cycle remains robust, but the price has struggled to catch up, as evidenced by its current repricing state with a positive NDS of +20.2. This suggests a potential for price to start aligning with the narrative if market conditi Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-24 FIRST
bearish cont. 0.65
“The near-term outlook suggests continued pricing pressure as ASML's narrative around EUV demand does not translate into price performance. The repricing state indicates a lagging reaction to positive narrative developments.”
2026-01-02
bearish cont. 0.70
“As of this date, ASML's price is led by a negative narrative surrounding EUV demand, indicating potential challenges in the near term. The significant narrative dislocation suggests that the market may continue to price in bearish expectations over the next couple of months.”
2026-02-10
bearish cont. 0.70
“Given the current price-led state with a negative narrative dislocation score, ASML may continue to face downward pressure in the near term. The market's focus on EUV demand tied to the AI chip cycle suggests a cautious outlook as pricing adjustments unfold.”
2026-03-19
bullish cont. 0.75
“Over the next 1-2 months, ASML is poised for a bullish trajectory as demand for EUV technology aligns with the growing AI chip cycle. The structural indicators suggest a recovering narrative and positive momentum.”
2026-04-27
bearish cont. 0.65
“Despite robust narrative support around EUV demand linked to the AI chip cycle, ASML faces persistent price pressure and a divergence from its narrative, suggesting a challenging short-term outlook. The narrative strength is not translating into price gains, indicating potential ”
2026-06-01 TODAY
mixed rot. 0.60
“ASML's narrative of EUV demand driven by the AI chip cycle remains robust, but the price has struggled to catch up, as evidenced by its current repricing state with a positive NDS of +20.2. This suggests a potential for price to start aligning with the narrative if market conditi”
L3 Expectation Lifecycle Field BUILT V1
Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.
adds Turns ASML's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today 64 theses tracked over the window; 2 active today, 0 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 64 · strengthened 0 · weakened 1 · contradicted 11 · retired 64.
ASML’s expectation theses 28 theses shown · 64 total
↓ Micron and Super Micro stock dynamics
↓ Supermicro's AI Infrastructure Developments
↓ ASML stock performance and outlook
↓ Micron's AI-driven growth and challenges
↓ Super Micro Computer stock analysis
↓ AI-driven semiconductor investment outlook
↓ Semiconductor sector dynamics and challenges
↓ Dell Technologies Growth and Challenges
↑ Dell Technologies Growth and Challenges
↑ Semiconductor market dynamics and trends
─ Semiconductor market dynamics and trends
↑ Analyst Ratings and Price Target Changes
↓ Analyst Ratings and Price Target Changes
↓ Super Micro Computer AI-driven growth
─ ASML and AMD stock performance analysis
─ Marvell's AI-driven earnings expectations
↓ Micron Technology investment outlook
↓ AI chip market dynamics and competition
─ AI chip market dynamics and competition
↑ Super Micro's AI and market dynamics
↑ Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
↓ Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
↓ AI chip market dynamics and trends
↓ AMD stock outlook and market dynamics
↓ Netflix stock volatility and investor sentiment
↑ Netflix stock volatility and investor sentiment
↓ Micron stock momentum and forecasts
↓ Apple leadership and market dynamics
● born▲ strengthened▼ weakened✕ contradicted○ retired
2026-01-02
1 active thesis
2026-02-10
1 active thesis
2026-03-19
1 active thesis
2026-04-27
1 active thesis
L4 Performance Field BUILT V1
Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.
adds Closes the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
today System-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. ASML appears in 12 public regions and 11 limited, including 5 inverted.
ASML appears in 46 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · direction sample 5d hit 20d hit actors
↑ Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
n=24
46% (-2pp)
38% (-12pp)
5
↓ Micron Technology investment outlook
n=24
33% (-15pp)
29% (-20pp)
4
↓ AMD stock outlook and market dynamics
n=21
38% (-10pp)
20% (-30pp)
10
↓ Dell Technologies Growth and Challenges
n=19
42% (-6pp)
47% (-2pp)
8
↓ ↑ INV Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
n=16
19% (-29pp)
25% (-25pp)
5
↓ Micron stock momentum and forecasts
n=16
31% (-17pp)
—
11
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).