L0 Event Field BUILT
Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.
adds Captures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming TSLA, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today 3,157 events naming TSLA in the 132-day window where every layer has coverage (4,633 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming TSLA 3,157 total · peak 151 on 04-23
Peak day sample: “Is This Overlooked EV Maker the Next High-Flying Tesla? Hint: There's Definite Upside.”
Some gaps 22 of 132 days in this window had zero events for TSLA — longest gap 7 consecutive days. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
L1 Narrative Field BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED
Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.
adds Places TSLA inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
today Primary cluster: “tesla / elon / musk” . Density (7d): 0.149 (momentum +0.028 , novelty 0.36 ). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
TSLA’s primary cluster over time 54 distinct clusters · 80 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2026-01-02
Tesla stock volatility and market sentiment
17d in this narrative
2026-02-10
SpaceX IPO and Musk's Vision
55d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies
1d in this narrative
2026-04-27
Earnings season insights and stock analysis
2d in this narrative
L2 Expectation Field BUILT V1
Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.
adds Turns TSLA's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
today Latest: mixed rotational at conviction 0.60 . “TSLA continues to demonstrate price resilience despite negative narrative pressure from Musk's political controversies and broader recession concerns. The stock's relative outperformance suggests that investors may be rotating selectively within the EV sector, maintaining interes”
TSLA’s daily expectation 130 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the near term, TSLA may continue to experience price resilience despite the negative narrative surrounding brand drag and recession sensitivity. However, the broader market context suggests potential volatility. 2025-11-25 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price resilience despite the negative narrative surrounding Musk's politics and recession concerns. However, the divergence from narrative suggests potential volatility ahead. 2025-11-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next couple of months, TSLA may experience volatile price movements as it navigates brand challenges tied to Musk's actions while maintaining a relative price strength. The market's positive narrative is not fully translating into sustained price gains. 2025-11-28 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may continue to navigate mixed sentiment driven by brand drag linked to Musk's politics, but a positive relative performance suggests potential for stabilization. Market sensitivity to recession risks could further influence volatility. 2025-12-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months may see continued volatility as the brand's image grapples with external narratives while maintaining a positive relative performance. A cautious approach is warranted given recession sensitivities. 2025-12-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the brand navigates political challenges and recession concerns. Market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, but risks remain elevated. 2025-12-03 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the near term, TSLA may continue to face headwinds from brand perception issues linked to Musk's politics, but its recent price performance suggests resilience. A careful watch on macroeconomic factors is essential as recession sensitivity remains a concern. 2025-12-04 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA is likely to experience volatility as it navigates the conflicting pressures from brand perception and economic sensitivity. The current trajectory suggests potential for a rebound, but external factors remain a concern. 2025-12-05 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current structural disagreement indicates a potential inflection point. Market sentiment is sensitive to broader economic concerns and brand perception issues tied to Musk's political activities. 2025-12-08 · neutral_macro · conv 0.60 — The current trajectory indicates a complicated environment with brand challenges stemming from political factors and recession sensitivity. Expect fluctuations in performance as the market digests these narratives. 2025-12-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months may see volatility as the market weighs brand sentiment against economic pressures. Continued disagreement suggests potential for either a rebound or further decline. 2025-12-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests a potential stabilization as the price shows resilience against negative narratives. However, ongoing brand challenges related to Musk's politics and recession sensitivity remain critical factors. 2025-12-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, TSLA may continue to face pressures from brand perception and broader economic sensitivities, but the recent uptick in narrative divergence suggests potential resilience. Expect volatility as the market reconciles these factors. 2025-12-12 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA is likely to experience continued volatility as it grapples with brand concerns tied to Musk's political actions, while showing some resilience against negative narratives. Price may stabilize as investors reassess the narrative context. 2025-12-15 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite ongoing brand challenges related to Musk's politics and recession sensitivity, TSLA is showing resilience with a notable positive relative return. The current narrative pressure suggests a potential for continued price support in the near term. 2025-12-16 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Despite significant brand drag and recession sensitivity, TSLA is showing resilience with a notable positive relative return. The next 1-2 months may see continued price resistance against negative narratives. 2025-12-17 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may continue to experience volatility due to ongoing brand challenges linked to Musk's politics, but recent price resilience suggests potential for stabilization. Market sentiment remains sensitive to broader economic conditions. 2025-12-18 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — With a negative narrative backdrop and significant brand drag from Musk's politics, TSLA's price resilience suggests a potential for mixed performance in the near term. The divergence in narrative strength and price movement indicates an uncertain path ahead. 2025-12-19 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Despite underlying political drag and recession sensitivity, TSLA's recent price action suggests resilience. The next couple of months may see fluctuations as the market digests these conflicting narratives. 2025-12-22 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates a potential for stabilization after recent volatility, but ongoing brand challenges may temper optimism. Expect cautious market sentiment in the near term. 2025-12-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may continue to face pressure from recession sensitivity, despite a stable narrative. The negative narrative dislocation score suggests potential volatility, but recent price action indicates some resilience. 2025-12-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — The current structural picture indicates potential volatility as the narrative surrounding brand perception and recession sensitivity weighs heavily. Expect a cautious approach from investors in the near term, with a focus on how these factors evolve. 2025-12-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — The next 1-2 months suggest a potential for price stabilization as the narrative around Musk's influence and recession sensitivity remains contentious. However, the recent uptick in narrative score may signal a shift towards a more favorable perception if sustained. 2025-12-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — In the coming months, TSLA is likely to experience volatility as it grapples with brand perception issues tied to Musk's politics and broader recession sensitivity. The current narrative resistance suggests potential for both upward and downward movements in response to market se 2025-12-30 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — In the next couple of months, TSLA may experience volatility as it navigates brand challenges linked to Musk's politics and heightened recession sensitivity. The market's negative narrative pressure could keep returns under strain but potential recovery hinges on shifting percept 2025-12-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months will likely see continued volatility as the market grapples with underlying recession concerns and brand perception issues. A cautious approach is warranted given the current state of disagreement and negative narrative pressure. 2026-01-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure as brand drag from Musk's political activities and recession sensitivity weigh on sentiment. The recent negative narrative and declining relative performance suggest a cautious outlook. 2026-01-05 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current structural disagreement signals potential volatility in the near term, as negative narratives surrounding brand perception and recession sensitivity weigh on performance. A cautious approach is advised as the market seeks clarity. 2026-01-06 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the market reacts to external narratives, particularly surrounding political factors impacting brand perception. While negative sentiment persists, any positive shifts in narrative could stabilize performance. 2026-01-07 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may struggle with brand perception and recession sensitivity, leading to volatility in price despite some narrative improvements. The market may react cautiously as it weighs these factors. 2026-01-08 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.70 — In the coming months, TSLA may face continued volatility due to external political factors impacting brand perception and sensitivity to economic conditions. However, recent narrative improvements indicate potential for price stabilization. 2026-01-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA is likely to experience continued price volatility due to unresolved brand issues tied to Musk's politics and recession sensitivities, despite some recent positive narrative shifts. The current state of disagreement suggests a mixed outlook with poten 2026-01-12 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The current state reflects a rejection of negative narratives, but persistent brand drag from Musk's politics and recession sensitivity may weigh on price. Expect a volatile path with potential for recovery if narrative conditions improve. 2026-01-13 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests a continuation of price volatility driven by conflicting narratives and recent brand challenges. While the recent relative performance shows some resilience, the overarching recession sensitivity remains a concern. 2026-01-14 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — The near-term outlook suggests potential volatility as the brand continues to face headwinds from Musk's political controversies, yet positive relative performance indicates some investor resilience. Monitoring for shifts in narrative and market sentiment will be crucial. 2026-01-15 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may experience volatility as it navigates brand challenges linked to Musk's politics while showing signs of price resilience. Investors should watch for further narrative developments impacting sentiment. 2026-01-16 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — Over the next couple of months, TSLA may face continued volatility as it grapples with brand perception issues linked to Musk's political stance and broader economic uncertainties. A cautious outlook is warranted given the current narrative pressures. 2026-01-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests potential volatility as the market assesses the impact of brand drag from Musk's political activities and ongoing recession concerns. A stabilization in narrative may offer a chance for recovery. 2026-01-21 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may continue to face mixed performance as brand drag from Musk's politics and recession sensitivity weigh on sentiment. However, the rejection of negative narratives may offer some support to the price. 2026-01-22 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may continue to experience price volatility driven by brand sentiment and recession concerns. Positive narrative elements are present, but the broader market conditions and brand drag from Musk's politics may limit upward momentum. 2026-01-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Given the current state of disagreement and the persistent brand drag from Musk's politics, TSLA may experience mixed performance in the near term. The positive narrative does not seem to be translating into price gains, indicating potential volatility ahead. 2026-01-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — Given the ongoing disagreement between price and narrative, TSLA may continue to experience volatility. The recent positive shift in narrative divergence might provide some upward pressure, but recession sensitivity remains a significant concern. 2026-01-27 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may experience volatility as it navigates brand challenges linked to Musk's political stance and broader recession sensitivities. The narrative is currently stable, but market reactions may remain mixed. 2026-01-28 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests potential volatility as price actions are rejecting negative narratives despite ongoing brand challenges. A shift in sentiment may be necessary to regain upward momentum. 2026-01-29 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as TSLA navigates brand drag from Musk's political stance and sensitivity to recessionary pressures. A potential inflection point could arise if narrative sentiment shifts positively. 2026-01-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on TSLA as brand drag from Musk's political actions and heightened sensitivity to recession narratives weigh on performance. The negative narrative is persistent, and price rejection may not sustain positive momentum. 2026-02-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The negative narrative surrounding brand perception and recession sensitivity is likely to create volatility in the near term. However, the price is currently rejecting the negative narrative, suggesting potential for stabilization or a rebound. 2026-02-03 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, TSLA may continue to face challenges from brand drag linked to Musk's politics and broader recession sensitivity, but the price is showing some resilience against negative narratives. A mixed trajectory is anticipated as market sentiment stabilizes. 2026-02-04 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued price resistance as TSLA navigates brand drag from Musk's politics and recession sensitivity, despite a strong narrative score. Expect potential volatility as market sentiment fluctuates. 2026-02-05 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued volatility as brand drag from Musk's politics weighs on sentiment, yet price is currently showing resilience against negative narratives. A cautious approach is warranted. 2026-02-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The ongoing brand drag from Musk's political actions and recession sensitivity suggest continued price pressure in the near term. The narrative remains strong but is failing to translate into positive price movements, indicating bearish sentiment may persist. 2026-02-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, TSLA shows signs of a potential turnaround with a positive narrative divergence despite brand drag. However, overall recession sensitivity remains a concern, indicating a cautious outlook. 2026-02-10 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA is likely to experience volatility as it contends with mixed narratives and market sentiment influenced by external factors. The recent uptick in relative performance suggests potential for stabilization, but ongoing recession sensitivity remains a co 2026-02-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The current structural state indicates an ongoing disagreement, with significant narrative drag from external factors. Expect volatility as the market digests these influences, potentially leading to mixed performance in the near term. 2026-02-12 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may experience volatility as it navigates brand challenges related to Musk's political actions, but recent relative strength suggests potential for recovery in investor sentiment. The market's rejection of negative narratives may support a stabilizati 2026-02-13 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the short term, TSLA's price may experience fluctuations as it grapples with the negative narrative surrounding Musk's politics while showing some resilience in performance metrics. The market's reaction could vary as it assesses these conflicting pressures. 2026-02-17 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests a cautious approach as TSLA navigates brand challenges linked to Musk's political stance and sensitivity to recessionary pressures. Recent improvements in narrative scores indicate potential stabilization, but uncertainty remains. 2026-02-18 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may experience volatility as it grapples with brand drag from Musk's political actions while facing recession sensitivity. The current narrative shows some improvement, but price performance remains weak relative to expectations. 2026-02-19 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the brand faces headwinds from political narratives and recession sensitivity. A potential inflection point could arise if brand sentiment improves amidst stabilizing economic conditions. 2026-02-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months may see continued volatility as the brand navigates the impact of external political narratives and recessionary pressures. However, recent improvements in narrative strength suggest potential stabilization. 2026-02-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the near term, TSLA may continue to face challenges due to brand drag from Musk's political controversies and heightened recession sensitivity. However, the recent positive NDS indicates potential for stabilization or a modest recovery if narrative pressures ease. 2026-02-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the brand faces political drag and recession sensitivity, but recent narrative stability suggests potential for recovery. Investors should watch closely for signs of positive sentiment shift. 2026-02-25 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as TSLA grapples with brand perception challenges linked to Musk's politics and recession sensitivity. While recent narrative scores indicate some stabilization, the overall sentiment remains cautious. 2026-02-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the brand faces political and recessionary pressures, but recent narrative stability suggests potential for recovery. Market sentiment is likely to fluctuate based on external factors. 2026-02-27 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, TSLA may experience volatility as it navigates brand challenges linked to Musk's politics and heightened recession sensitivity. The current narrative suggests potential price resistance, but the recent uptick in narrative dislocation could provide some upwar 2026-03-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Given the current disagreement state and a narrative score that is declining, TSLA may face continued volatility in the near term. However, the positive NDS suggests potential for stabilization if the brand narrative improves. 2026-03-03 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates a struggle between brand perception challenges and a resilient narrative. Expect volatility as the market reacts to external sentiment while navigating recession fears. 2026-03-04 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current state suggests a potential stabilization in narrative despite ongoing brand challenges. However, the negative relative return indicates caution in the near term as market sentiment remains sensitive to recession fears. 2026-03-05 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA is likely to face continued pressure from negative narratives and recession sensitivity, but signs of disagreement with the narrative may support some stabilization. Expect volatility as market sentiment fluctuates. 2026-03-06 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA is likely to experience continued volatility due to brand drag from Musk's politics and heightened recession sensitivity. While the narrative pressure remains, recent price action suggests some resilience that could lead to a mixed performance. 2026-03-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued volatility as market sentiment grapples with brand drag from Musk's political activities and recession sensitivity. A cautious approach is advisable as negative narratives linger. 2026-03-10 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the brand faces headwinds from political narratives and recession sensitivity. While recent price action shows resilience, underlying dislocation may challenge sustained momentum. 2026-03-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as TSLA navigates brand perception issues linked to Musk's politics, while also facing recession sensitivity. The recent positive relative return suggests potential for stabilization, but the high narrative dislocation indicates uncertainty. 2026-03-12 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the market grapples with Musk's political influence and recession risks. Price action suggests a rejection of negative narratives, but uncertainty persists. 2026-03-13 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as Tesla navigates brand perception issues linked to Musk's politics and sensitivity to recessionary pressures. A mixed outlook suggests potential for both recovery and setbacks. 2026-03-16 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued volatility as the brand faces headwinds from political narratives and recession sensitivity, but recent price resilience suggests potential for stabilization. The negative narrative score indicates ongoing challenges, but slight rel 2026-03-17 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the brand struggles with negative sentiment related to Musk and economic pressures. However, recent price resilience suggests potential for a rebound if narrative sentiment improves. 2026-03-18 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued volatility as TSLA grapples with brand perception issues linked to Musk and broader economic sensitivity. The price may oscillate as it seeks to find a stable footing amidst conflicting narratives. 2026-03-19 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the brand continues to face headwinds from Musk's political influence and recession sensitivity. A careful watch on narrative shifts will be crucial for potential recovery. 2026-03-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, TSLA may experience volatility as it navigates brand challenges linked to Musk's political stance and broader recessionary pressures. The current disagreement state suggests a potential turning point is on the horizon. 2026-03-23 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may experience volatility as it navigates brand sentiment issues linked to Musk's politics and ongoing recession sensitivity. The current narrative suggests potential for a turnaround, but remains precarious. 2026-03-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current narrative pressure reflects ongoing brand challenges due to external factors, which may lead to a cautious market response. However, recent price stability suggests potential for a rebound if negative sentiment eases. 2026-03-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the near term, TSLA is likely to face continued pressure as negative narratives surrounding brand perception and recession sensitivity weigh on performance. The current disagreement between price and narrative may persist, suggesting a challenging road ahead. 2026-03-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, TSLA is expected to experience volatility as it grapples with the negative narrative surrounding Musk's politics, despite a recent resilience in price. The market's rejection of this negative sentiment suggests potential for a mixed performance. 2026-03-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural state indicates continued price rejection despite a strong narrative. Expect further downward pressure as recession sensitivity and brand drag from Musk's politics persist over the next 1-2 months. 2026-03-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA is likely to struggle with ongoing brand drag from Musk's political controversies and recession sensitivity, which may continue to weigh on its price despite some narrative resilience. The significant negative narrative dislocation score suggests that 2026-03-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may experience continued volatility due to brand concerns linked to Musk's political influence and broader economic factors. The potential for a rebound exists, but risks remain elevated. 2026-04-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may experience continued volatility as it navigates brand perception issues linked to Musk and broader recession concerns. Price movement will likely remain sensitive to external narratives despite a stable narrative score. 2026-04-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may face ongoing volatility as brand perception issues and recession sensitivity weigh on sentiment. However, recent price rejections of negative narratives suggest potential for stabilization. 2026-04-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The ongoing negative narrative surrounding Musk's politics is likely to continue impacting TSLA's performance in the near term. Expect further price pressure as recession sensitivity remains a concern. 2026-04-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural state shows ongoing disagreement with a persistent negative narrative, indicating potential continued pressure on the stock. The negative trajectory suggests further challenges ahead, particularly influenced by external factors like recession sensitivity. 2026-04-08 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued price volatility as the market navigates the dual pressures of Musk's political brand drag and recession sensitivity. Despite recent positive narrative shifts, the overall sentiment remains cautious. 2026-04-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may continue to face headwinds from brand drag linked to Musk's politics and recession sensitivity, despite showing some resilience against negative narratives. Price action will likely fluctuate as market sentiment grapples with these factors. 2026-04-10 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The current structural picture suggests continued price rejection of negative narratives, but macroeconomic pressures and brand challenges could limit upward momentum in the near term. Expect volatility as the market assesses Tesla's resilience amidst recession sensitivity. 2026-04-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The short-term outlook remains pressured as the brand drag from Musk's politics continues to weigh on sentiment, alongside recession sensitivity in consumer spending. Expect further price challenges in the coming months. 2026-04-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates continued price pressure due to brand drag from Musk's politics and recession sensitivity. Expect a challenging environment with potential for further downside in the near term. 2026-04-15 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests volatility as the stock is experiencing significant narrative pressure from brand perception issues. Continued sensitivity to economic conditions may lead to fluctuating performance in the coming months. 2026-04-16 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as price action rejects negative narratives, but recession sensitivity remains a concern. Watch for potential stabilization or further dislocation depending on broader market conditions. 2026-04-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current trajectory suggests potential volatility as the brand faces challenges from external narratives and economic sensitivity. A cautious approach is advised as the market seeks stability. 2026-04-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may experience volatility as it navigates brand drag from political factors and recession sensitivity. The recent positive relative return indicates potential for upward momentum but could be tempered by ongoing narrative pressures. 2026-04-21 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, TSLA may continue to experience volatility as it navigates brand drag from Musk's political controversies and recession sensitivity. However, the recent price resilience suggests potential for stabilization and a mixed outlook. 2026-04-22 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — With ongoing brand drag from Musk's political influence and sensitivity to recessionary pressures, TSLA's near-term outlook remains uncertain. Price actions indicate potential for recovery, yet narrative challenges persist. 2026-04-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA is likely to face continued volatility as brand sentiment struggles against market headwinds. The negative narrative surrounding Musk's politics may keep price action constrained despite some recent positive movements. 2026-04-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests a potential stabilization as recent price movements show some resistance to negative narratives, though recession sensitivity remains a concern. Continued scrutiny on brand perception tied to Musk's politics may influence market sentiment. 2026-04-27 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The current structural disagreement indicates a volatile path ahead, with price pressures potentially persisting due to external brand challenges. However, the resilience in narrative suggests opportunities for recovery in the near term. 2026-04-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued price weakness driven by brand drag from Musk's political actions and heightened recession sensitivity. Expect further challenges in maintaining price stability over the next 1-2 months. 2026-04-29 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — The current state indicates a struggle against negative narratives, yet price rejection suggests potential resilience. A cautious upward trajectory could emerge if narrative pressures stabilize. 2026-04-30 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook reflects a complex environment where brand challenges related to Musk's political influence and recession sensitivity may lead to volatile price movements. The price is currently rejecting negative narratives, suggesting potential for stabilization despite u 2026-05-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The price is currently showing some resilience despite negative narratives surrounding brand perception and economic sensitivity. However, ongoing dislocation suggests volatility may continue in the near term. 2026-05-04 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The current structural picture indicates a potential for continued price resilience despite negative narrative pressures. Expect fluctuations influenced by external factors and brand perceptions over the next couple of months. 2026-05-05 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current state of disagreement suggests potential for price stabilization as negative narratives struggle to gain traction. However, brand perception issues linked to Musk's politics may hinder upward momentum in the near term. 2026-05-06 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural picture suggests a potential stabilization in price despite ongoing negative narratives. Short-term volatility may persist, but resilience is observed in recent relative performance. 2026-05-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, TSLA is likely to continue facing headwinds due to persistent brand drag from Musk's political controversies and sensitivity to recessionary concerns. While recent price actions show some resilience, the overall narrative remains negative. 2026-05-08 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current structural disagreement indicates a potential inflection point, but ongoing brand drag from Musk's politics and recession sensitivity could hinder upward momentum in the near term. Expect volatility as the market assesses sentiment against recent price resilience. 2026-05-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSLA may experience continued price volatility as it navigates the challenges posed by brand perception and recession sensitivity, despite a recent positive price performance. The divergence between narrative and price will likely keep market sentiment mix 2026-05-12 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Despite significant negative narrative pressure, TSLA has demonstrated price resilience, suggesting potential for sideways movement in the near term. Investors may remain cautious due to ongoing concerns about brand perception and recession exposure. 2026-05-13 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Despite significant negative narrative pressure and recession sensitivity, TSLA's price is showing resilience with a positive relative return. The outlook suggests a potential stabilization in the near term, but ongoing brand drag from Musk's politics may limit upward momentum. 2026-05-14 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, TSLA shows price resilience despite negative narrative pressures. The current trajectory suggests potential stabilization, but further dislocation could prompt volatility in the near term. 2026-05-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the negative narrative surrounding brand perception and Musk's politics persists. Structural indicators suggest a challenging environment for recovery. 2026-05-18 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as TSLA navigates brand challenges and recession sensitivity. Price action will likely remain disjointed, reflecting ongoing disagreement between narrative and market performance. 2026-05-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Tesla's narrative strength, indicated by a high NDS, continues to outpace its price, reflecting investor skepticism amid brand challenges linked to Musk's political actions and recession sensitivity. Despite initial positive relative returns, the stock has reverted to underperfor 2026-05-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — Tesla continues to grapple with brand challenges linked to Elon Musk's political activities and broader recessionary pressures. Despite a positive narrative, its stock price remains under pressure, suggesting that the market is not fully embracing the narrative strength. This dis 2026-05-21 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — Tesla's narrative remains strong despite its price underperformance, indicating potential for an upward shift if external pressures ease. The brand drag from Elon Musk's political affiliations and the company's sensitivity to economic conditions have contributed to its current st 2026-05-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a persistent negative narrative influenced by Musk's political involvement and recession fears, Tesla's price has shown resilience, rejecting the narrative-driven pressure. The NDS is improving from deeply negative levels, suggesting a potential for continued price streng 2026-05-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Tesla's stock price continues to resist a negative narrative, as indicated by its current DISAGREEMENT state and improving relative returns. Despite brand drag from Musk's political associations and recession sensitivity, the price action suggests investors are focusing on Tesla' 2026-05-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — TSLA has been navigating a challenging environment characterized by brand drag due to Musk's political involvement and sensitivity to recessionary pressures. Despite a negative narrative dislocation score, the stock has been resilient, rejecting the negative narrative over the pa 2026-05-28 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — Tesla continues to show resilience in its price performance despite ongoing negative narratives driven by brand drag from Musk's politics and recession sensitivity. The stock has been rejecting the negative sentiment, as indicated by its positive relative return of +2.3% against 2026-05-29 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite the ongoing narrative drag from Musk's political controversies and recessionary fears, TSLA has demonstrated resilience, maintaining a positive relative return against the broader market. The price has consistently rejected the negative narrative, suggesting a potential f 2026-05-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — TSLA continues to navigate a complex narrative environment, where brand challenges tied to Musk's politics are countered by a price that resists negative sentiment. The current state of disagreement suggests that while the narrative remains strong, the market is not fully aligned 2026-06-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — TSLA continues to demonstrate price resilience despite negative narrative pressure from Musk's political controversies and broader recession concerns. The stock's relative outperformance suggests that investors may be rotating selectively within the EV sector, maintaining interes Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-24 FIRST
mixed rot. 0.65
“In the near term, TSLA may continue to experience price resilience despite the negative narrative surrounding brand drag and recession sensitivity. However, the broader market context suggests potential volatility.”
2026-01-02
bearish cont. 0.70
“The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure as brand drag from Musk's political activities and recession sensitivity weigh on sentiment. The recent negative narrative and declining relative performance suggest a cautious outlook.”
2026-02-10
mixed rot. 0.65
“In the next 1-2 months, TSLA is likely to experience volatility as it contends with mixed narratives and market sentiment influenced by external factors. The recent uptick in relative performance suggests potential for stabilization, but ongoing recession sensitivity remains a co”
2026-03-19
inflect. pending 0.65
“The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the brand continues to face headwinds from Musk's political influence and recession sensitivity. A careful watch on narrative shifts will be crucial for potential recovery.”
2026-04-27
mixed rot. 0.65
“The current structural disagreement indicates a volatile path ahead, with price pressures potentially persisting due to external brand challenges. However, the resilience in narrative suggests opportunities for recovery in the near term.”
2026-06-01 TODAY
mixed rot. 0.60
“TSLA continues to demonstrate price resilience despite negative narrative pressure from Musk's political controversies and broader recession concerns. The stock's relative outperformance suggests that investors may be rotating selectively within the EV sector, maintaining interes”
L3 Expectation Lifecycle Field BUILT V1
Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.
adds Turns TSLA's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today 33 theses tracked over the window; 2 active today, 1 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 33 · strengthened 1 · weakened 2 · contradicted 1 · retired 45. Current persistent thesis: “SpaceX IPO and Musk's Vision” (neutral, conviction 0.60, 44 daily versions).
Current persistent thesis
“SpaceX IPO and Musk's Vision”
direction neutral conviction 0.60 daily versions 44 tracked 2026-01-20 → 2026-05-21
TSLA’s expectation theses 15 theses shown · 33 total
─ Emerging trends in AI and tech
─ Insider confidence in growth stocks
─ Tesla stock volatility and market sentiment
↑ Tesla stock volatility and market sentiment
─ Trump's Market Influence and Reactions
─ SpaceX IPO and Musk's Vision
↓ SpaceX IPO and Musk's Vision
─ Corporate filings and disclosures
─ Trump's Tariff Impact on Markets
─ Market sentiment and stock movements
─ Middle East Conflict Impact on Markets
─ Oil price volatility impacts markets
─ Earnings season insights and stock analysis
─ Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
─ Alphabet earnings and AI investments
● born▲ strengthened▼ weakened✕ contradicted○ retired
2026-01-02
3 active theses
2026-02-10
3 active theses
2026-03-19
4 active theses
2026-04-27
4 active theses
L4 Performance Field BUILT V1
Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.
adds Closes the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
today System-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. TSLA appears in 2 public regions and 1 limited.
TSLA appears in 5 signed regions
theme · direction sample 5d hit 20d hit actors
↓ Analyst Ratings and Price Target Adjustments
n=15
47% (-1pp)
47% (-3pp)
11
↓ SpaceX IPO and Musk's Vision
n=11
64% (+16pp)
67% (+17pp)
1
↓ Tesla stock volatility and market sentiment
n=5 · limited
60% (+12pp)
60% (+10pp)
5
↓ Tesla earnings and market volatility
n=1 · n/a
—
—
1
↑ Tesla stock volatility and market sentiment
n=1 · n/a
—
—
1
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).