L0 Event Field BUILT
Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.
adds Captures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming MP, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today 363 events naming MP in the 132-day window where every layer has coverage (1,131 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming MP 363 total · peak 22 on 02-26
Peak day sample: “Does MP’s Texas 10X Magnet Campus and Pentagon Deal Change The Bull Case For MP (MP)?”
Some gaps 26 of 132 days in this window had zero events for MP — longest gap 7 consecutive days. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
L1 Narrative Field BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED
Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.
adds Places MP inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
today Primary cluster: “” . Density (7d): 0.000 (momentum -0.180 , novelty 0.00 ). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
MP’s primary cluster over time 92 distinct clusters · 104 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2026-01-02
Trump investment accounts for children
2d in this narrative
2026-02-10
Surge in critical minerals investment
23d in this narrative
2026-03-19
MP Materials earnings and valuation insights
1d in this narrative
2026-04-27
Earnings season insights and stock analysis
6d in this narrative
L2 Expectation Field BUILT V1
Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.
adds Turns MP's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
today Latest: mixed rotational at conviction 0.60 . “MP's narrative around rare earth mining and China tariff benefits has outpaced its price performance, as evidenced by a positive NDS of +2.7. This suggests that while the narrative remains strong, the market is hesitant to fully embrace it amid broader sector challenges. The curr”
MP’s daily expectation 130 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural indicators suggest that MP is beginning to see price movements aligning with its strong narrative. Continued positive sentiment and external factors could support further gains in the coming months. 2025-11-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on MP's price despite a solid narrative around rare earth mining and favorable tariffs. Expect potential short-term challenges as the market adjusts. 2025-11-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current divergence state and negative relative performance, MP is likely to continue facing price pressure in the near term despite a strong narrative. The lack of market responsiveness to positive developments indicates potential challenges ahead. 2025-11-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The actor is positioned for growth due to favorable market conditions and a positive narrative around rare earth mining. Expect continued upward movement in the next 1-2 months. 2025-12-01 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As MP navigates through the repricing phase, the narrative around rare earth mining and tariff benefits suggests potential for stabilization. Expect a cautious upward trajectory as market sentiment adjusts to the evolving supply chain dynamics. 2025-12-02 · neutral_macro · conv 0.60 — As of now, MP is experiencing a repricing phase with a declining narrative score, indicating potential challenges ahead despite a positive NDS. The next couple of months may see fluctuations as the market digests current conditions. 2025-12-03 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests potential stabilization as the market grapples with the recent repricing phase. Continued focus on rare earth mining dynamics and tariff impacts may influence sentiment positively. 2025-12-04 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, MP is in a repricing phase, facing a decline in narrative strength despite a positive relative return. The next 1-2 months may see fluctuations as the market adjusts to ongoing supply chain dynamics and tariff impacts. 2025-12-05 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The recent repricing suggests a potential stabilization, but the negative relative return indicates caution. Expect fluctuations as market dynamics around rare earth mining evolve. 2025-12-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates a potential continuation of upward momentum in the next 1-2 months, supported by positive narrative factors and a favorable NDS. The price trajectory appears to be stabilizing after recent fluctuations. 2025-12-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests continued repricing pressures as the narrative struggles to gain traction despite favorable tariff conditions. A cautious approach is advisable as the market adjusts to the current state. 2025-12-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing phase suggests a potential stabilization in the near term, but with narrative pressures indicating uncertainty. The trajectory points towards cautious optimism, driven by supply chain dynamics. 2025-12-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure as the narrative around rare earth mining fails to translate into price gains. The recent state of repricing suggests a struggle to break out of this trend, despite a favorable narrative backdrop. 2025-12-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the ongoing divergence and negative relative return, MP is likely to face continued pricing pressure in the near term despite a stable narrative. The lack of price response to positive narrative suggests potential challenges ahead. 2025-12-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the persistent divergence and a narrative that is not translating into price movement, MP is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term. The lack of positive market response suggests ongoing challenges ahead. 2025-12-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence suggests continued price weakness despite a positive narrative surrounding rare earth mining. The outlook is likely to remain bearish in the near term as the market fails to respond to favorable conditions. 2025-12-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a divergence state and a narrative not translating to price, MP is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term. The persistent negative relative return suggests ongoing challenges despite favorable narratives around rare earth mining. 2025-12-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates ongoing challenges for MP, with narrative strength not translating into price performance. Expect continued price pressure in the near term as market sentiment lags behind the narrative. 2025-12-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued downward pressure as narrative strength weakens and the divergence persists. The supply chain challenges and tariff tailwinds are insufficient to reverse the current trend. 2025-12-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state indicates a potential for continued downward pressure in the near term, as the narrative strength is waning. Expect challenges in maintaining momentum given the recent narrative dislocation. 2025-12-23 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing phase indicates potential stabilization, but recent divergence suggests caution. Expect fluctuations in narrative strength to influence price movement over the next couple of months. 2025-12-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests potential stabilization as the repricing state appears to be settling, albeit with low narrative strength. Continued focus on supply chain dynamics may influence future performance. 2025-12-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next couple of months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative weakens and the market digests recent volatility. With the narrative score declining, investor sentiment may remain cautious. 2025-12-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, MP is likely to continue experiencing downward pressure as the repricing state persists, coupled with a declining narrative score. Market sentiment may remain cautious given the recent negative relative performance. 2025-12-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on MP, as the divergence in narrative and negative relative performance suggest persistent challenges. The sector's dynamics indicate a need for cautious positioning. 2025-12-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The outlook suggests a continued struggle with divergence, as recent narrative and relative performance indicate challenges in gaining traction. However, the tailwind from tariffs on rare earths may offer some stabilization in the coming months. 2026-01-02 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, MP is experiencing a significant narrative dislocation, suggesting potential volatility in the near term. The recent shift to a macro state indicates uncertainty, but with a slight positive relative return, there may be room for stabilization or recovery. 2026-01-05 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The price-led state indicates potential for continued fluctuations in the near term, influenced by narrative dislocation. Investors should be cautious as the narrative pressure remains weak. 2026-01-06 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural picture suggests a potential stabilization phase, though the negative narrative dislocation score indicates some headwinds ahead. Expect volatility as the market adjusts to recent trends. 2026-01-07 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates a challenging environment driven by narrative dislocation, but recent relative performance suggests some resilience. Expect potential volatility as the market reassesses the value proposition. 2026-01-08 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term trajectory suggests potential volatility as MP navigates a challenging narrative environment and fluctuating pricing pressures. The recent positive relative performance may provide some support, but the overall narrative dislocation indicates caution. 2026-01-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates ongoing challenges, with the narrative failing to translate into sustained price increases. Expect continued pressure in the near term as market conditions remain unfavorable. 2026-01-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued struggles as the positive narrative fails to translate into price movement. A bearish continuation is expected given the deteriorating narrative dislocation score and the divergence from prior price actions. 2026-01-13 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the confirmed state and strong narrative, MP is likely to experience a bullish trend in the near term. The positive narrative around rare earth mining and favorable tariffs may continue to support price growth. 2026-01-14 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates a potential continuation of upward momentum in the near term, supported by confirmed narrative alignment despite recent fluctuations. The positive relative return suggests resilience in market perception. 2026-01-15 · neutral_macro · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see a consolidation phase as the narrative stabilizes around rare earth mining. Continued focus on supply chain dynamics will be crucial. 2026-01-16 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests a potential continuation of positive momentum, supported by the confirmed narrative around rare earth mining and favorable tariffs. However, caution is warranted due to the recent dislocation in narrative dynamics. 2026-01-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture shows confirmed strength with a positive narrative and increasing relative performance. Expect continued bullish momentum in the next 1-2 months as tariff tailwinds support the sector. 2026-01-21 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The recent narrative improvement alongside a positive NDS suggests potential upward momentum in the next 1-2 months. Price stabilization indicates a favorable environment for growth, despite prior divergence. 2026-01-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The recent repricing indicates persistent challenges in translating positive narrative into price movement. Expect continued volatility as the market reassesses value in the face of external pressures. 2026-01-23 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural shift towards an early state indicates potential for price recovery, supported by positive narrative elements around rare earth mining and tariff advantages. Continued monitoring of narrative strength will be crucial for sustaining this momentum. 2026-01-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates that despite a strong narrative around rare earth mining and favorable tariffs, the price is likely to continue underperforming in the near term. Expect further consolidation as the market reconciles this narrative with actual performance. 2026-01-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around rare earth mining and favorable tariffs, MP's price continues to lag behind expectations. The divergence indicates persistent market skepticism that may hinder recovery in the near term. 2026-01-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a continuation of the repricing phase, supported by a strong narrative and improving NDS. Expect price stability or modest gains in the short term as the market adjusts. 2026-01-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months are likely to see continued divergence as the positive narrative around rare earth mining fails to translate into price movement. The high narrative score indicates potential for future upside, but current structural pressures suggest caution. 2026-01-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued divergence as the positive narrative around rare earth mining fails to translate into price appreciation. The persistent negative relative return suggests sustained downward pressure. 2026-02-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook remains challenging as the narrative supporting MP is not translating into price increases. Continued divergence suggests potential for further price weakness amidst broader market pressures. 2026-02-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The actor is currently in a repricing phase with strong narrative support but lagging price performance. Expect continued downward pressure as broader market sentiments affect the materials sector. 2026-02-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current divergence state indicates persistent narrative strength with limited price response, suggesting continued downward pressure in the near term. The recent repricing may offer a temporary relief, but the overarching trend remains bearish. 2026-02-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests continued repricing pressure, with narrative strength not translating into price movement. Expect bearish continuation in the coming months, as the market remains cautious despite favorable narratives. 2026-02-06 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a confirmed state and narrative strength, MP is positioned for potential upward movement in the next couple of months, driven by favorable supply chain dynamics and tariff support. However, caution is warranted due to recent divergence patterns in the sector. 2026-02-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The structural picture suggests a cautious path ahead, with confirmed price movements but a concerning narrative dislocation. The next 1-2 months may see fluctuations as the market digests the recent divergence. 2026-02-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the repricing phase stabilizes. Market dynamics, including tariff influences and supply chain factors, will be crucial in determining the direction. 2026-02-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, MP is likely to face continued repricing as the narrative around rare earth mining remains weak despite a favorable NDS. The recent trajectory suggests a struggle to regain upward momentum. 2026-02-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The upcoming months may see continued volatility as the repricing phase reflects mixed sentiment. The narrative around rare earth mining remains supportive, but structural indicators suggest caution. 2026-02-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — The near-term outlook suggests potential stabilization as the narrative around rare earth mining gains traction, despite recent repricing pressures. The positive NDS indicates a possible inflection point, but caution remains due to relative underperformance. 2026-02-17 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around rare earth mining remains underappreciated. The divergence suggests potential for a rebound if market attention shifts positively. 2026-02-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a favorable narrative around rare earth mining and potential tariff benefits, MP's price remains under pressure and shows a divergence from market expectations. The next 1-2 months may see continued challenges unless structural changes occur. 2026-02-19 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The recent repricing phase indicates potential stabilization, but the negative relative return suggests caution. Expect a period of consolidation as market sentiment adjusts. 2026-02-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative surrounding rare earth mining adjusts. The current repricing suggests potential for stabilization, but the divergence in recent performance indicates uncertainty. 2026-02-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pricing pressure as the narrative around rare earth mining struggles to translate into positive momentum. The divergence in price performance suggests ongoing challenges in gaining market traction. 2026-02-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current state suggests a potential inflection point, with early signs of stabilization in narrative and relative performance. Expect volatility as market dynamics and supply chain factors continue to evolve. 2026-02-25 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the actor is in a repricing state, indicating potential adjustments in market perception. Observing the narrative and NDS could signal a shift or stabilization in sentiment. 2026-02-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture suggests a bullish trajectory in the coming months, driven by favorable narrative and tariff conditions. Expect continued price adjustments as the market aligns with the emerging narrative. 2026-02-27 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a continued positive trajectory over the next couple of months, driven by confirmed narratives and favorable market conditions. The recent price stability suggests ongoing support from the supply chain dynamics. 2026-03-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Given the confirmed state and positive relative return, MP may experience a mixed trajectory in the coming months, with potential volatility due to recent narrative dislocation. The ongoing tailwind from tariffs and supply chain dynamics could offer support. 2026-03-03 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Despite a confirmed narrative around rare earth mining and favorable tariffs, structural divergence suggests potential price struggles in the near term. Caution is advised as market sentiment appears mixed. 2026-03-04 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed narrative and positive NDS, MP is poised for a bullish trajectory in the coming months. The favorable supply chain conditions and China tariff tailwinds should support continued price appreciation. 2026-03-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests that despite a strong narrative around rare earth mining and favorable tariffs, the price is likely to remain under pressure in the near term. Expect continued volatility as the market reassesses the relationship between narrative strength and 2026-03-06 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, MP is likely to experience continued volatility as it navigates the repricing phase. The narrative around rare earth mining remains strong, but recent divergence indicates potential headwinds ahead. 2026-03-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests potential volatility as the narrative around rare earth mining continues to face divergence despite a favorable NDS. Market sentiment may take time to align with structural improvements. 2026-03-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the narrative around rare earth mining and tariffs stabilizes. Investors should monitor for signs of a potential shift in momentum. 2026-03-11 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural indicators suggest a potential bullish continuation as the narrative around rare earth mining and tariff advantages could drive price stabilization. Expect gradual improvement over the next couple of months. 2026-03-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The actor appears to be in an early state with a slight decline in narrative score, suggesting potential for stabilization. However, the negative narrative dislocation score indicates caution is warranted in the near term. 2026-03-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The recent repricing phase indicates potential stabilization, but the narrative pressure is weak. Expect fluctuations as the market seeks clarity on the rare earth sector's direction. 2026-03-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing pressure, as the narrative strength has weakened and the recent trajectory indicates a lack of upward momentum. The market appears to be adjusting to the current supply chain dynamics and tariff implications. 2026-03-17 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — The upcoming months may see continued repricing pressures as the narrative around rare earth mining stabilizes. However, the mixed trajectory indicates potential fluctuations based on external market conditions. 2026-03-18 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, MP may face mixed pressures as the narrative remains strong but market performance lags. The divergence suggests potential volatility ahead. 2026-03-19 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The divergence in the current narrative suggests volatility ahead, with potential for both upward and downward movements. Expect fluctuations as market sentiment stabilizes amidst the ongoing China tariff dynamics. 2026-03-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued divergence as market sentiment remains cautious, despite a strong narrative around rare earth mining. The negative relative return suggests potential further downward pressure. 2026-03-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, MP is likely to experience continued divergence with mixed sentiment as the market grapples with tariff impacts and supply chain dynamics. The strong narrative around rare earth mining may provide some support, but the negative relative return suggests cau 2026-03-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, MP is likely to continue experiencing downward pressure as the divergence in market sentiment persists despite a strong narrative around rare earth mining. The relative underperformance suggests challenges in gaining traction. 2026-03-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Despite a consistent positive narrative around rare earth mining and favorable supply chain conditions, MP's price has not responded positively, indicating ongoing bearish pressure. The divergence trend suggests potential for further price weakness in the near term. 2026-03-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The 1-2 month outlook appears bearish as the price continues to lag behind a moderately positive narrative. The repricing state indicates a struggle to align with favorable market conditions. 2026-03-27 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see MP navigating early repricing, although persistent divergence suggests caution. A focus on narrative strength and market conditions will be crucial. 2026-03-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The narrative around rare earth mining remains strong, but the divergence indicates that market sentiment is not aligning with this positive outlook. Expect continued pressure on price despite favorable conditions over the next couple of months. 2026-03-31 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current divergence in narrative and negative relative return suggest continued challenges for MP in the near term. Expect further repricing pressures as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-04-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around rare earth mining and favorable tariffs, MP's persistent divergence suggests continued pressure on price. The next 1-2 months may see limited recovery as the market fails to reward the underlying story. 2026-04-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The continued divergence in narrative and relative performance suggests ongoing challenges for MP in the near term. Without a significant catalyst, the stock may continue to struggle against benchmark performance over the next couple of months. 2026-04-06 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the narrative around rare earth mining faces headwinds despite favorable tariff conditions. A potential shift in sentiment could emerge as the market reassesses the supply chain dynamics. 2026-04-07 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — As of now, MP is showing early signs of recovery with a positive narrative and slight upward pressure on returns. The outlook is cautiously optimistic as the narrative around rare earth mining remains favorable. 2026-04-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued downward price pressure as the narrative around rare earth mining struggles to gain traction amidst broader sector challenges. The divergence in narrative and price indicates a lack of investor confidence. 2026-04-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the narrative around rare earth mining struggles to gain traction amid broader market challenges. The early state indicates potential for further dislocation in price despite positive narrative elements. 2026-04-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, MP is expected to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative around rare earth mining struggles to translate into price gains, amidst broader sector challenges. The current price-led state indicates potential further declines if narrative strength 2026-04-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current price-led state and negative narrative dislocation, MP is likely to experience continued downward pressure in the near term. The structural challenges in rare earth mining, coupled with broader market sentiment, suggest a cautious outlook. 2026-04-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, MP is expected to face continued price pressure as the narrative around rare earth mining remains weak. The negative narrative dislocation score suggests a challenging environment ahead. 2026-04-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the coming months, MP is likely to face continued downward pressure due to a negative narrative and diverging sentiment in the market. The price-led state suggests potential further declines as investors react to underlying concerns. 2026-04-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued price-led pressure with a significant narrative dislocation. Expect challenges in maintaining upward momentum in the coming months as the divergence in narratives persists. 2026-04-17 · neutral_macro · conv 0.40 — The structural picture indicates a stabilization phase, with macro factors influencing sentiment. Expect a cautious approach in the near term as the market assesses broader economic impacts. 2026-04-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, MP may experience fluctuations due to early state challenges and a mixed narrative. The supply chain tailwind could provide some support, but volatility is likely. 2026-04-21 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The current early state suggests potential volatility ahead as the narrative struggles to translate into price movement. Expect a mixed trajectory in the coming months as market dynamics play out. 2026-04-22 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months may see continued volatility as narrative strength struggles to translate into price performance. The early state suggests potential for stabilization, but significant headwinds remain from negative narrative dislocation. 2026-04-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Given the repricing state and the persistent divergence between narrative strength and price performance, MP is likely to experience continued bearish pressure in the near term. The narrative around rare earth mining is not translating into positive price movement, indicating pot 2026-04-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months may see continued volatility as the stock is in a repricing phase with a narrative pressure that has recently weakened. Investors should be cautious as the divergence from expected performance suggests potential instability. 2026-04-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure despite a positive narrative around rare earth mining. The repricing state suggests a struggle to align market sentiment with the underlying narrative. 2026-04-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates ongoing divergence, with narrative strength not translating into price gains. Expect continued price pressure in the near term, as the market remains skeptical despite a favorable narrative. 2026-04-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The persistent divergence suggests that despite a favorable narrative around rare earth mining and tariff advantages, the market is not rewarding these factors. Expect continued pressure on price in the near term. 2026-04-30 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The recent transition to a macro state suggests potential stabilization after volatility, but the dislocation score indicates ongoing uncertainty. Expect a cautious approach in the coming months as the market seeks clarity on supply chain dynamics and tariff impacts. 2026-05-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the short term, MP is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative surrounding rare earth mining fails to translate into price gains. The persistent divergence indicates a challenging environment for recovery. 2026-05-04 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The outlook appears uncertain as macro pressures persist, with a narrative decline suggesting potential volatility in the near term. A focus on supply chain and tariff impacts may provide some support, but overall momentum seems weak. 2026-05-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current price-led state indicates a struggle to align narrative strength with price performance. Expect continued bearish pressure in the near term as the narrative fails to translate into upward price movement. 2026-05-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, MP may continue to face price pressure as the current narrative around rare earth mining fails to translate into market gains. The persistent negative narrative dislocation score suggests a challenging environment ahead. 2026-05-07 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative around rare earth mining faces headwinds, despite a favorable macro backdrop. A lack of price momentum suggests caution in the near term. 2026-05-08 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, MP is in a repricing state with narrative support but lagging price performance. The next 1-2 months may see a potential for stabilization as the market assesses the impact of the rare earth mining narrative and geopolitical factors. 2026-05-11 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see a stabilization in price as the narrative around rare earth mining and China tariffs gains traction. However, caution is warranted due to the prevailing market pressure on related sectors. 2026-05-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural divergence indicates that positive narratives around rare earth mining are not translating into price gains. Expect continued pressure on the stock in the near term as the market remains skeptical. 2026-05-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The narrative around rare earth mining is not translating into positive price movements, indicating continued price pressure in the near term. Expect further divergence as market sentiment remains cautious despite favorable narratives. 2026-05-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, MP is likely to continue facing downward pressure despite a stable narrative around rare earth mining and favorable tariffs. The divergence between narrative positivity and price performance suggests ongoing challenges in translating sentiment into marke 2026-05-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the coming months, MP is likely to continue experiencing divergence with its narrative failing to translate into price appreciation. The persistent negative relative return signals potential ongoing weakness. 2026-05-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may continue to reflect a divergence pattern, with positive narratives failing to translate into price improvements. The structural pressures suggest a bearish outlook as the market does not appear responsive to the favorable supply chain dynamics. 2026-05-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — MP is likely to continue its current trajectory of narrative strength not translating into price gains. The persistent divergence state, with a high NDS of +69.6, indicates that positive sentiment around China tariff tailwinds and supply chain dynamics is not yet impacting the st 2026-05-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — MP's narrative remains strong with a high NDS of +83.4, driven by the China tariff tailwind and supply chain opportunities, yet the stock has not responded, underperforming the broad market by nearly 15%. This divergence suggests an inflection is due as the narrative pressure bui 2026-05-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — MP's narrative around rare earth mining and China tariff benefits continues to be strong, yet this positive sentiment is not translating into price movements. The consistent divergence state, with a high narrative dislocation score and underperformance relative to the market, sug 2026-05-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — MP's recent transition from a price-led state to early price momentum suggests the company is starting to benefit from favorable supply chain dynamics and China tariff tailwinds. The negative NDS narrowing indicates that the narrative may soon catch up with the price, supporting 2026-05-25 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — MP's price momentum has recently begun to align with its narrative, driven by tailwinds from Chinese tariff policies affecting the rare earth supply chain. However, the negative NDS suggests the narrative has not fully caught up with the price movement, indicating potential volat 2026-05-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — MP's rare earth mining operations are positioned to benefit from the ongoing China tariff tailwind, which could enhance its supply chain dynamics. The recent shift to an 'early' state with a positive relative return of +4.0% suggests that price is starting to align with the narra 2026-05-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — MP's price momentum continues to outpace narrative traction, driven by positive relative returns of +14.8% and a strong price-led trajectory. The current price appreciation is benefiting from a favorable China tariff tailwind and supply chain dynamics, which are not yet fully cap 2026-05-29 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — MP's rare earth mining operations are benefiting from a favorable tariff environment with China, driving a 14.7% relative return. However, the narrative dislocation score of -63.6 suggests that the market is yet to fully catch up with the underlying narrative. This price-led stat 2026-05-31 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — MP is currently in an 'early' state with a strong price-led recovery, showing a relative return of +15.1% despite a persistent negative narrative dislocation score of -66.7. This suggests that market pricing is beginning to factor in potential benefits from China tariff tailwinds 2026-06-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — MP's narrative around rare earth mining and China tariff benefits has outpaced its price performance, as evidenced by a positive NDS of +2.7. This suggests that while the narrative remains strong, the market is hesitant to fully embrace it amid broader sector challenges. The curr Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-24 FIRST
bullish cont. 0.70
“The structural indicators suggest that MP is beginning to see price movements aligning with its strong narrative. Continued positive sentiment and external factors could support further gains in the coming months.”
2026-01-02
inflect. pending 0.65
“As of now, MP is experiencing a significant narrative dislocation, suggesting potential volatility in the near term. The recent shift to a macro state indicates uncertainty, but with a slight positive relative return, there may be room for stabilization or recovery.”
2026-02-10
inflect. pending 0.65
“The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the repricing phase stabilizes. Market dynamics, including tariff influences and supply chain factors, will be crucial in determining the direction.”
2026-03-19
mixed rot. 0.65
“The divergence in the current narrative suggests volatility ahead, with potential for both upward and downward movements. Expect fluctuations as market sentiment stabilizes amidst the ongoing China tariff dynamics.”
2026-04-27
bearish cont. 0.70
“The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure despite a positive narrative around rare earth mining. The repricing state suggests a struggle to align market sentiment with the underlying narrative.”
2026-06-01 TODAY
mixed rot. 0.60
“MP's narrative around rare earth mining and China tariff benefits has outpaced its price performance, as evidenced by a positive NDS of +2.7. This suggests that while the narrative remains strong, the market is hesitant to fully embrace it amid broader sector challenges. The curr”
L3 Expectation Lifecycle Field BUILT V1
Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.
adds Turns MP's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today 62 theses tracked over the window; 3 active today, 0 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 62 · strengthened 0 · weakened 0 · contradicted 8 · retired 66.
MP’s expectation theses 26 theses shown · 62 total
↓ Meta stock volatility and outlook
↓ Trump's Market Influence and Reactions
─ Trump's Market Influence and Reactions
─ Trump investment accounts for children
─ Insider confidence in growth stocks
─ Rare earths supply chain dynamics
↑ Rare earths supply chain dynamics
↓ Geopolitical tensions impact markets and commodities
↓ Rare earths supply chain dynamics
↑ Corporate filings and disclosures
↓ Surge in critical minerals investment
↑ Surge in critical minerals investment
─ Surge in critical minerals investment
─ Corporate filings and disclosures
↓ Constellation Energy stock performance analysis
─ Oil price volatility impacts markets
↓ Earnings season insights and stock analysis
↓ Analyst Ratings and Price Target Adjustments
↓ Oil price volatility impacts markets
↓ Energy sector growth and transactions
─ Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
─ Earnings season insights and stock analysis
↓ Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
─ Alphabet earnings and AI investments
↓ Alphabet earnings and AI investments
↓ Market Reactions to Tech Stock Developments
● born▲ strengthened▼ weakened✕ contradicted○ retired
2026-01-02
1 active thesis
2026-02-10
3 active theses
2026-03-19
1 active thesis
2026-04-27
2 active theses
L4 Performance Field BUILT V1
Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.
adds Closes the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
today System-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. MP appears in 11 public regions and 7 limited, including 2 inverted.
MP appears in 37 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · direction sample 5d hit 20d hit actors
↓ AI stock market dynamics and trends
n=47
32% (-16pp)
35% (-14pp)
15
↓ Earnings season insights and stock analysis
n=46
43% (-4pp)
76% (+27pp)
15
↓ Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
n=27
56% (+8pp)
82% (+32pp)
13
↓ Corporate filings and disclosures
n=25
52% (+4pp)
36% (-14pp)
14
↓ Alphabet earnings and AI investments
n=20
70% (+22pp)
—
8
↓ Constellation Energy stock performance analysis
n=20
70% (+22pp)
45% (-5pp)
11
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).