L0 Event Field BUILT
Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.
adds Captures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming TTD, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today 386 events naming TTD in the 132-day window where every layer has coverage (930 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming TTD 386 total · peak 27 on 05-08
Peak day sample: “These Stocks Are Today’s Movers: CoreWeave, Trade Desk, Cloudflare, Akamai, Block, and More”
Some gaps 28 of 132 days in this window had zero events for TTD — longest gap 6 consecutive days. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
L1 Narrative Field BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED
Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.
adds Places TTD inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
today Primary cluster: “week / investors / about” . Density (7d): 0.094 (momentum -0.079 , novelty 0.34 ). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
TTD’s primary cluster over time 103 distinct clusters · 114 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2026-01-02
Whale activity and corporate filings
1d in this narrative
2026-02-10
Tech labor market upheaval
2d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies
1d in this narrative
2026-04-27
Adobe's AI challenges and opportunities
1d in this narrative
L2 Expectation Field BUILT V1
Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.
adds Turns TTD's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
today Latest: inflection pending at conviction 0.60 . “TTD is currently in a repricing state, with its narrative around programmatic ad platforms and AI-driven buying failing to translate into price momentum. This pattern of price lagging a strong narrative is consistent with the broader divergence cluster, but TTD's specific focus o”
TTD’s daily expectation 130 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on TTD's price despite a strong narrative around programmatic advertising. Expect further challenges in the near term as the market remains skeptical of the growth potential. 2025-11-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure as the positive narrative surrounding TTD fails to translate into price gains, mirroring broader sector trends. The divergence in narrative and relative performance suggests sustained challenges ahead. 2025-11-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The narrative around TTD remains strong, but the price continues to lag, indicating a bearish continuation in the near term. The divergence suggests that the positive sentiment is not translating into price movement, which may lead to further repricing. 2025-11-28 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests a potential stabilization in the near term, though relative performance remains under pressure. Continued improvement in narrative strength may lead to a more favorable outlook as market conditions evolve. 2025-12-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative remains weak despite positive NDS. The repricing state indicates ongoing challenges in aligning market sentiment with the underlying value. 2025-12-02 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as market sentiment stabilizes, but caution remains due to recent underperformance relative to peers. A potential inflection point could emerge if narrative strength improves. 2025-12-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative remains under pressure and the relative performance lags. A cautious approach is warranted as market sentiment appears weak. 2025-12-04 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as TTD's pricing adjusts to the narrative landscape. Investors should watch for signs of stabilization or further dislocation in the sector. 2025-12-05 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests a cautious outlook as the narrative stabilizes. With a slight uptick in relative performance, TTD may find opportunities for recovery in the near term, but volatility is expected. 2025-12-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests a potential for upward momentum as the narrative strengthens. Continued repricing may align the stock more closely with its positive narrative trajectory over the next couple of months. 2025-12-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — With a recent uptick in narrative strength and a positive NDS, TTD appears to be at a critical juncture. The continued repricing suggests potential for recovery in the coming months, contingent on maintaining positive narrative momentum. 2025-12-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing phase suggests a positive trajectory as the narrative strengthens. Expect continued momentum in the programmatic ad space driven by AI advancements and connected TV trends. 2025-12-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the strong narrative fails to translate into price appreciation, reflecting a broader divergence in market sentiment. 2025-12-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence suggests that TTD's positive narrative around programmatic advertising and AI is failing to translate into price appreciation. Expect continued challenges in the near term as momentum remains negative. 2025-12-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence suggests continued challenges in translating strong narrative into price performance over the next couple of months. The ongoing negative sentiment within the sector may further pressure TTD's valuation. 2025-12-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative around TTD remains strong but fails to translate into positive price movement. The divergence from peers suggests a challenging environment ahead. 2025-12-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued repricing pressure with a lagging narrative. Expect further challenges in aligning price with positive sentiment over the next couple of months. 2025-12-18 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With the current state showing early signs of price alignment and a positive narrative, TTD is positioned for potential bullish movement over the next 1-2 months. However, caution is warranted due to the divergence cluster affecting peers. 2025-12-19 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The recent repricing suggests a potential stabilization after a period of divergence, but lingering concerns about narrative alignment could limit upward momentum in the near term. 2025-12-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Over the next couple of months, TTD is likely to continue facing headwinds as the repricing trend persists. The negative narrative and declining narrative dislocation score suggest ongoing challenges in aligning price with market expectations. 2025-12-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as the narrative weakens and the negative dislocation score suggests downward pressure. The actor's price appears to be lagging the deteriorating sentiment. 2025-12-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing phase suggests a potential stabilization in the coming months, but the mixed signals from the narrative and relative performance indicate caution. A shift towards a more favorable narrative could support a rebound. 2025-12-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing pressures as the narrative weakens and relative performance lags, indicating a challenging environment for growth. The recent trajectory suggests potential for further downside. 2025-12-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD is likely to continue facing downward pressure as macro conditions remain unfavorable, with a narrative dislocation score indicating significant challenges ahead. The relative return suggests a mixed performance compared to the benchmark, but negative 2025-12-30 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current macro state suggests a period of uncertainty with potential for volatility in the coming months. A careful monitoring of narrative shifts will be essential as TTD navigates this landscape. 2025-12-31 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued challenges for TTD, with declining narrative strength and negative dislocation scores suggesting a bearish trajectory over the next 1-2 months. Macro pressures are likely to persist, impacting performance. 2026-01-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state suggests continued downward pressure in the near term. With a declining narrative and negative dislocation score, TTD may struggle to regain upward momentum over the next couple of months. 2026-01-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current price-led state combined with a negative narrative dislocation score suggests continued bearish pressure in the near term. Expect potential challenges in regaining upward momentum over the next couple of months. 2026-01-06 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural state indicates potential for recovery, but near-term challenges persist as the narrative remains mixed. Expect volatility as the market reassesses TTD's position in a competitive landscape. 2026-01-07 · neutral_macro · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD is expected to navigate continued repricing pressures while maintaining a narrative strength around programmatic advertising. The macro environment may present challenges, but the overall trajectory indicates potential stabilization. 2026-01-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD is likely to continue facing pressure as the narrative remains strong but price lags behind. The current state of repricing suggests a challenging environment for growth software stocks, particularly with peers showing similar trends. 2026-01-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on TTD's price despite a strong narrative. The negative relative return indicates that the market is not fully recognizing the potential of the narrative at this time. 2026-01-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a strong narrative divergence and a negative relative return, TTD is likely to face continued pressure in the near term. The positive narrative has not translated into price appreciation, indicating potential further downside. 2026-01-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural divergence suggests that despite a strong narrative around AI-driven ad buying, TTD may face ongoing price pressure in the near term. The story is not being paid, indicating potential challenges ahead. 2026-01-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state indicates potential continued pressure on TTD's stock, as the narrative struggles to gain traction despite a positive NDS. Expect volatility in the near term as market sentiment adjusts. 2026-01-15 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as TTD navigates its repricing phase, with potential for both positive and negative influences on sentiment. Watch for further divergence in narrative strength against market performance. 2026-01-16 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative stabilizes but remains under pressure. The actor's relative performance indicates it may struggle to catch up with sector peers in the short term. 2026-01-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next couple of months may see continued pricing pressure as the narrative struggles to regain momentum amidst a challenging ad market. The recent repricing suggests a cautious outlook for growth. 2026-01-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing pressures as the narrative around TTD remains strong but fails to translate into positive price movement, similar to peers in the sector. The persistent divergence indicates a challenging environment for recovery. 2026-01-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — TTD is expected to face continued pricing challenges as the narrative around programmatic advertising struggles to translate into price momentum. A cautious outlook persists with potential for further divergence from positive narrative signals. 2026-01-23 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD faces continued repricing challenges, with narrative strength not translating into price movement. A potential inflection could arise if the narrative gains traction against the backdrop of sector dynamics. 2026-01-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued downward pressure as the strong narrative fails to translate into price performance, indicating a persistent divergence. The actor remains in a challenging position amidst sector-wide issues. 2026-01-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on price despite a strong narrative around TTD's offerings. The divergence with market expectations suggests persistent headwinds. 2026-01-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural divergence suggests continued pressure on pricing, with the narrative failing to translate into positive market sentiment. Expect further challenges in the short term as the market grapples with negative sentiment. 2026-01-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The persistent divergence indicates strong narrative support that is not translating into price performance. Expect continued pressure on the stock as the market grapples with the gap between narrative and valuation. 2026-01-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence suggests continued pressure on TTD's price despite a strong narrative, indicating a bearish continuation over the next couple of months. 2026-02-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Given the persistent divergence and negative relative return, TTD is likely to remain under pressure in the near term as the narrative of AI disruption continues to overshadow its growth potential. 2026-02-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The current divergence state indicates that the positive narrative surrounding TTD is not translating into price gains, suggesting continued bearish pressure in the near term. Expect the stock to remain under pressure as market sentiment and sector-wide issues persist. 2026-02-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current divergence indicates that TTD is unlikely to see significant price recovery in the near term, as the narrative around AI disruption continues to weigh heavily on the software sector. Expect continued pressure as the story remains unrecognized by the market. 2026-02-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The current divergence state indicates persistent narrative pressure without corresponding price movement. Expect continued bearish sentiment as AI disruption themes weigh on growth software stocks. 2026-02-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price weakness as the narrative around AI disruption weighs heavily on the sector. TTD's divergence suggests persistent underperformance relative to market expectations. 2026-02-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence suggests that despite a positive narrative surrounding TTD's programmatic ad platform, price action is unlikely to improve in the near term. Expect continued pressure as the market fails to reward the positive narrative. 2026-02-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural shift to an early state indicates potential for a bullish recovery in the next couple of months, as the narrative stabilizes around programmatic advertising growth. Continued positive relative performance suggests investor interest is returning. 2026-02-11 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The current unclear state and negative narrative dislocation suggest potential volatility ahead. Market participants are likely to remain cautious, with a focus on upcoming developments that could clarify TTD's trajectory. 2026-02-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued uncertainty as the narrative remains unclear. A lack of follow-through and mixed signals from peers suggest potential volatility ahead. 2026-02-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on TTD as the repricing phase persists, with narratives not fully supporting current valuations. A cautious approach is advisable as the market adjusts. 2026-02-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The trajectory indicates ongoing repricing pressures with a negative narrative score, suggesting further downside potential in the near term. Market sentiment appears to be lagging behind the positive narrative developments in AI-driven buying and connected TV. 2026-02-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the strong narrative around programmatic advertising fails to translate into price appreciation, aligning with broader sector trends of divergence. 2026-02-19 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued volatility as the narrative stabilizes. Divergent trends suggest a potential shift, but clarity is lacking. 2026-02-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative remains unclear. The divergence observed suggests potential shifts, but current conditions lack strong directional signals. 2026-02-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The outlook for TTD remains challenging as the narrative around AI disruption weighs heavily on sentiment, and price pressures are expected to persist in the near term. Continued divergence from positive narrative suggests further downside risk. 2026-02-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative remains unclear and the divergence state persists. Investors should watch for signs of stabilization or further dislocation. 2026-02-25 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as the narrative remains unclear and recent trajectory indicates no strong follow-through. A potential inflection point is on the horizon, but direction is uncertain. 2026-02-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the divergence in narrative and relative performance remains evident. Market sentiment appears cautious, which could lead to further underperformance against benchmarks. 2026-02-27 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as the narrative remains unclear and divergence persists, indicating potential for a shift in sentiment. 2026-03-02 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued uncertainty as the narrative remains unclear and the negative dislocation score suggests potential headwinds. Watch for signs of stabilization or further divergence. 2026-03-03 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see volatility as the unclear state and negative narrative dislocation suggest potential challenges ahead. A rebound is possible if narrative alignment improves. 2026-03-04 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — TTD's trajectory shows a recent lack of follow-through amidst narrative divergence, indicating a potential inflection point. Expect continued uncertainty in the near term as market sentiment stabilizes. 2026-03-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure on TTD as the narrative fails to translate into price action, compounded by a concerning divergence in sentiment. The sector's current struggles may weigh heavily on performance. 2026-03-06 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — Given the recent structural dislocation and narrative uncertainty, TTD may experience fluctuations in the near term as it navigates through this challenging environment. The strong relative performance suggests potential resilience, but caution is warranted. 2026-03-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates a potential stabilization in the near term, but uncertainty remains due to recent narrative fluctuations. Price performance may continue to oscillate as market sentiment evolves. 2026-03-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The recent confirmation of narrative strength suggests a potential stabilization, but the negative narrative dislocation score indicates uncertainty. Expect fluctuations in the near term as market sentiment recalibrates. 2026-03-11 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The confirmed state, alongside a positive narrative and relative performance, suggests a bullish trajectory in the near term. Continued strength may solidify its position in the programmatic ad space. 2026-03-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TTD is experiencing a divergence between narrative and relative performance, suggesting continued bearish pressure in the near term. The narrative strength remains high, but the negative relative return indicates market skepticism. 2026-03-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued divergence, suggesting potential headwinds in the near term. The negative relative return reinforces concerns about narrative support. 2026-03-16 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD may experience continued volatility as it navigates a repricing phase amidst a mixed narrative environment. The recent divergence in performance suggests potential for both upward and downward movements depending on market sentiment. 2026-03-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current divergence suggests continued challenges as the narrative remains underappreciated by the market. Expect price pressure in the near term as the story struggles to gain traction. 2026-03-18 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The outlook suggests potential stabilization as narrative pressure remains high, but recent relative underperformance indicates caution. A possible inflection point could emerge if market conditions shift favorably. 2026-03-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The current divergence and negative relative performance suggest continued challenges in the near term. A lack of narrative support indicates potential ongoing weakness over the next couple of months. 2026-03-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued downward pressure as the divergence persists, with the narrative not being fully recognized in the price action. Expect potential volatility as market participants reassess their positions. 2026-03-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural divergence indicates continued downward pressure, suggesting a challenging environment for TTD in the coming months. Despite a strong narrative, the negative relative performance suggests caution. 2026-03-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the near term, TTD may continue to experience volatility as the strong narrative of AI-driven programmatic buying contrasts with the negative relative return. This divergence suggests potential for a mixed trajectory ahead. 2026-03-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates that despite a strong narrative, TTD is likely to continue its price underperformance in the near term. Expect further challenges in gaining traction as the market remains skeptical. 2026-03-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests a continued repricing phase, with price lagging behind the positive narrative. Expect further challenges in gaining traction over the next month as divergence remains prevalent. 2026-03-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a positive narrative surrounding programmatic advertising and AI-driven buying, TTD continues to experience price divergence, indicating persistent selling pressure. Expect further challenges as the market fails to reward the narrative adequately. 2026-03-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing pressures as positive narratives struggle to translate into price movement. The current divergence indicates a challenging environment for growth stocks like TTD. 2026-03-31 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural shift indicates a potential for continued bullish momentum in the next 1-2 months, driven by a recovering narrative and stable relative performance. The early state suggests market participants may begin to align more closely with the positive trajectory. 2026-04-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility as TTD's narrative remains strong but pricing struggles to align. Market sentiment may shift based on broader sector trends and peer performance. 2026-04-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates a continued repricing phase, with narrative pressure remaining underwhelming. Expect short-term challenges as relative performance lags behind peers. 2026-04-06 · neutral_macro · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the stock navigates a complex narrative landscape, with potential for stabilization if market conditions align favorably. 2026-04-07 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued divergence as the narrative stabilizes, but with significant uncertainty reflected in the relative performance. Market sentiment appears to be weighing on TTD despite positive narrative developments. 2026-04-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on TTD's price as the divergence between narrative strength and market performance persists. The broader software sector's struggles with AI disruption may further weigh on investor sentiment. 2026-04-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The current divergence state suggests continued price pressure despite a positive narrative. Expect limited upward movement in the near term as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-04-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural divergence indicates ongoing price pressure despite a positive narrative. Expect further challenges in the next 1-2 months as the market continues to react negatively to sector-wide dynamics. 2026-04-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative around AI disruption in software gains traction. The divergence state suggests that the market is not rewarding the story despite positive NDS. 2026-04-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — As of now, TTD is experiencing a divergence with a negative relative return, indicating ongoing struggles in the market. The narrative remains under pressure from broader sector challenges, particularly in AI-driven software solutions. 2026-04-15 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD may experience fluctuations as the recent confirmation of state contrasts with a negative narrative dislocation score. Watch for potential shifts in sentiment driven by sector trends. 2026-04-16 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural picture shows a recent confirmation but with a declining narrative score, indicating potential volatility ahead. Watch for signs of stabilization or further divergence in performance over the next couple of months. 2026-04-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The outlook suggests potential stabilization after recent volatility, but continued caution is warranted as the narrative is still weak. The market may begin to respond positively if structural indicators improve. 2026-04-20 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — TTD's price action has recently confirmed a narrative shift, but the negative narrative dislocation score indicates potential volatility ahead. The next couple of months may see fluctuations as the market digests these signals. 2026-04-21 · neutral_macro · conv 0.60 — In the next 1-2 months, TTD may experience continued price stability as it confirms its narrative despite a backdrop of diverging market signals. The narrative remains strong, but external pressures from peers could create mixed outcomes. 2026-04-22 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The actor is currently in an early state with a positive narrative and a relatively modest price increase. A cautious upward trajectory is anticipated if the momentum continues, but external pressures from peers suggest volatility may persist. 2026-04-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative fails to translate into price movement. The divergence with peers suggests persistent bearish pressure. 2026-04-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural state indicates a potential for upward momentum over the next couple of months, driven by a positive narrative and improving relative performance. Continued focus on AI-driven capabilities may bolster confidence. 2026-04-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TTD is expected to face continued price pressure as the divergence between narrative and performance persists. The broader software cohort is struggling under the weight of the AI disruption narrative. 2026-04-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next couple of months, TTD is likely to face continued pricing challenges as its narrative remains strong but fails to translate into price performance, reflecting a broader sector trend. The repricing state suggests a struggle to align narrative strength with market exp 2026-04-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The actor is in an early state with positive narrative but struggling to translate this into price movement. Continued divergence from peers suggests a challenging environment ahead. 2026-04-30 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural indicators suggest a stabilization and potential upward momentum in the near term, supported by a positive narrative and improved relative performance. Continued focus on AI-driven buying and connected TV could drive further gains. 2026-05-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months may see continued pricing pressures as the narrative surrounding TTD's programmatic ad platform fails to translate into positive price movements. A cautious outlook is warranted given the divergence from peers. 2026-05-04 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural state indicates a potential inflection point as TTD transitions from early signs of repricing. Expect a cautious upward trajectory in the near term as the market assesses the implications of AI-driven buying and connected TV trends. 2026-05-05 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of early May 2026, TTD shows signs of early recovery, but the positive narrative has yet to translate into sustained price momentum. The trajectory suggests a cautious approach as the market evaluates its positioning against peers experiencing divergence. 2026-05-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the divergence with narrative persists, particularly in the context of broader sector challenges. The structural state suggests a struggle to translate positive developments into price appreciation. 2026-05-07 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates a positive narrative that is currently being repriced, suggesting a potential for upward momentum in the next couple of months. However, caution is warranted due to recent price lagging. 2026-05-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on TTD's price despite a strong narrative, as the divergence trend persists. Market sentiment remains cautious amid broader software sector challenges. 2026-05-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the divergence between positive narrative and negative price performance persists. The broader software sector's struggles with AI disruption further complicate TTD's outlook. 2026-05-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The narrative around TTD remains strong, but the persistent divergence indicates that pricing is not reflecting this positive sentiment. Expect continued downward pressure on the stock price in the near term as the market fails to reward the narrative. 2026-05-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The 1-2 month outlook remains challenging as TTD continues to exhibit a divergence state, with a narrative that is not translating into positive price action. The persistent negative relative performance suggests continued pressure ahead. 2026-05-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates continued price pressure despite a strong narrative backdrop. Expect the divergence to persist in the near term as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-05-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a strong narrative around programmatic ad tech, TTD's price continues to lag, suggesting ongoing bearish pressure in the near term. The divergence state indicates that positive sentiment is not translating into price movement. 2026-05-18 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a positive narrative beginning to align with price movement, TTD is positioned for potential upward momentum in the coming months. The early state suggests a recovery trajectory, despite recent divergence. 2026-05-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TTD is experiencing a positive shift as its price begins to reflect its strong narrative around programmatic ad platforms and AI-driven buying. The recent transition from a 'story_not_being_paid' state to 'EARLY' suggests that the market is starting to recognize the value proposi 2026-05-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The Trade Desk is transitioning from a prolonged divergence state to early price alignment, as evidenced by the recent shift in NDS from a high divergence of +134.3 to a more modest +4.4. This suggests that the market is beginning to recognize the value of TTD's programmatic ad p 2026-05-21 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TTD is experiencing a positive shift as its price begins to align more closely with its strong narrative on AI-driven ad solutions and connected TV growth. Having recently transitioned from a narrative-heavy divergence to a state where price is leading, TTD is likely to see conti 2026-05-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TTD's recent price performance has outpaced its narrative, as evidenced by its negative NDS of -23.0. This suggests a potential for a pullback or stagnation as the narrative struggles to catch up with the price momentum. The company's focus on AI-driven buying and connected TV re 2026-05-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The Trade Desk has recently shifted from a period of narrative divergence to a state where the price is beginning to reflect the company's AI-driven and connected TV strategies. The narrative's previous strength is now translating into price action, suggesting continued upward tr 2026-05-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — TTD has entered an 'early' state with price starting to follow, indicating a potential alignment between narrative and performance. However, the narrative dislocation score remains negative, suggesting that the narrative has yet to fully catch up with the recent price appreciatio 2026-05-28 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — TTD is currently experiencing a repricing phase where its strong narrative on AI-driven programmatic advertising and connected TV is not translating into price gains. The narrative remains robust with a positive NDS, yet the stock lags, suggesting an impending inflection point th 2026-05-29 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TTD's narrative is significantly ahead of its price, suggesting a potential for upward price adjustments in the next 1-2 months. The programmatic ad platform's focus on AI-driven buying and connected TV continues to resonate well, as evidenced by the strong narrative score despit 2026-05-31 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — TTD is currently in a repricing phase with a strong positive narrative that is not yet reflected in its price performance. The ongoing divergence suggests a potential upward correction as the market aligns with the narrative strength, particularly in AI-driven ad buying and conne 2026-06-01 · inflection_pending · conv 0.60 — TTD is currently in a repricing state, with its narrative around programmatic ad platforms and AI-driven buying failing to translate into price momentum. This pattern of price lagging a strong narrative is consistent with the broader divergence cluster, but TTD's specific focus o Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-24 FIRST
bearish cont. 0.70
“The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on TTD's price despite a strong narrative around programmatic advertising. Expect further challenges in the near term as the market remains skeptical of the growth potential.”
2026-01-02
bearish cont. 0.70
“The current repricing state suggests continued downward pressure in the near term. With a declining narrative and negative dislocation score, TTD may struggle to regain upward momentum over the next couple of months.”
2026-02-10
bullish cont. 0.70
“The structural shift to an early state indicates potential for a bullish recovery in the next couple of months, as the narrative stabilizes around programmatic advertising growth. Continued positive relative performance suggests investor interest is returning.”
2026-03-19
bearish cont. 0.75
“The current divergence and negative relative performance suggest continued challenges in the near term. A lack of narrative support indicates potential ongoing weakness over the next couple of months.”
2026-04-27
bearish cont. 0.70
“TTD is expected to face continued price pressure as the divergence between narrative and performance persists. The broader software cohort is struggling under the weight of the AI disruption narrative.”
2026-06-01 TODAY
inflect. pending 0.60
“TTD is currently in a repricing state, with its narrative around programmatic ad platforms and AI-driven buying failing to translate into price momentum. This pattern of price lagging a strong narrative is consistent with the broader divergence cluster, but TTD's specific focus o”
L3 Expectation Lifecycle Field BUILT V1
Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.
adds Turns TTD's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today 90 theses tracked over the window; 3 active today, 0 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 90 · strengthened 0 · weakened 0 · contradicted 7 · retired 95.
TTD’s expectation theses 24 theses shown · 90 total
↑ Insider confidence in growth stocks
↓ Analyst Insights on Datadog and Trade Desk
↓ Insider confidence in growth stocks
↓ Trump's Market Influence and Reactions
↓ Salesforce and Snowflake growth prospects
↓ Investor Sentiment on Datadog and TTD
↓ Ad-tech and cloud software stock analysis
↓ Corporate filings and disclosures
↓ Market Sentiment on Datadog and Trade Desk
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
↓ Tech labor market upheaval
↓ Datadog's AI Growth and Partnerships
─ Corporate filings and disclosures
↑ ETFs and investment strategies analysis
↓ ETFs and investment strategies analysis
↓ Constellation Energy stock performance analysis
↓ Market activity in tech stocks
─ Earnings season insights and stock analysis
↓ Earnings season insights and stock analysis
─ Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
↓ Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
↑ Streaming Industry Challenges and Changes
↓ Alphabet earnings and AI investments
↓ MercadoLibre growth and investment outlook
● born▲ strengthened▼ weakened✕ contradicted○ retired
2026-01-02
3 active theses
2026-02-10
● born
○ retired
✕ contradicted
3 active theses
2026-03-19
1 active thesis
2026-04-27
2 active theses
L4 Performance Field BUILT V1
Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.
adds Closes the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
today System-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. TTD appears in 20 public regions and 8 limited, including 3 inverted.
TTD appears in 57 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · direction sample 5d hit 20d hit actors
↓ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
n=65
55% (+8pp)
55% (+6pp)
17
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
n=61
51% (+3pp)
43% (-7pp)
19
↓ Earnings season insights and stock analysis
n=46
43% (-4pp)
76% (+27pp)
15
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
n=45
44% (-3pp)
27% (-23pp)
18
↓ Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
n=27
56% (+8pp)
82% (+32pp)
13
↓ Corporate filings and disclosures
n=25
52% (+4pp)
36% (-14pp)
14
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).