L0 Event Field BUILT
Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.
adds Captures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming AMD, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today 1,846 events naming AMD in the 132-day window where every layer has coverage (2,941 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming AMD 1,846 total · peak 141 on 05-06
Peak day sample: “Stock Market Today, May 6: AMD Surges After Q1 Beat and Strong Q2 Data Center Outlook”
Minor gaps 9 of 132 days in this window had zero events for AMD — longest gap 5 consecutive days. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
L1 Narrative Field BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED
Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.
adds Places AMD inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
today Primary cluster: “intel / earnings / cramer” . Density (7d): 0.236 (momentum +0.022 , novelty 0.32 ). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
AMD’s primary cluster over time 112 distinct clusters · 117 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2026-01-02
Nvidia's strategic moves in AI semiconductors
14d in this narrative
2026-02-10
AI-driven semiconductor market dynamics
5d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
1d in this narrative
2026-04-27
Alphabet's growth and investment potential
2d in this narrative
L2 Expectation Field BUILT V1
Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.
adds Turns AMD's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
today Latest: bullish continuation at conviction 0.70 . “AMD's AI GPU competition narrative against NVDA is gaining traction, with its price performance confirming the narrative's strength. Despite the broader field's 'story not being paid' pattern, AMD's relative return of +11.5% indicates a distinct bullish trajectory. The current co”
AMD’s daily expectation 130 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's narrative around AI GPU competition is strong but is not translating into price performance. Expect continued divergence as market sentiment remains cautious. 2025-11-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Despite a strong narrative around AI GPU competition, AMD's price continues to lag significantly behind, indicating persistent bearish sentiment. The divergence suggests challenges in translating positive narratives into price performance in the near term. 2025-11-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's narrative around AI GPU competition is not translating into positive price movement, indicating a bearish continuation in the near term. The divergence from expected performance suggests ongoing challenges against NVDA's dominance. 2025-11-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD is currently in a repricing phase with its narrative under pressure from AI GPU competition, particularly against NVDA. Expect continued volatility as the market reassesses AMD's position in light of competitive dynamics. 2025-12-01 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — AMD is positioned in an early state with positive relative performance, indicating potential for upward momentum. However, the ongoing AI GPU competition narrative with NVIDIA suggests volatility ahead as market dynamics evolve. 2025-12-02 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD is expected to face continued pressure from AI GPU competition, particularly against NVDA. The repricing state suggests potential for volatility as the market reassesses AMD's positioning. 2025-12-03 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — AMD is navigating early signals of a potential repricing as competition intensifies, particularly against NVDA. The next couple of months may see fluctuations as the market assesses AMD's positioning in the AI GPU narrative. 2025-12-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Given the current repricing state and the ongoing competition narrative with NVDA, AMD is likely to face continued downward pressure in the near term. The narrative lagging behind the price suggests further challenges ahead. 2025-12-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD is in a repricing phase, struggling to keep pace with NVDA in the AI GPU competition. Expect continued pressure on its share price as narrative lag persists. 2025-12-08 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The immediate outlook for AMD is characterized by an unclear state, suggesting potential volatility as it navigates the competitive landscape against NVDA. A lack of follow-through in recent narratives points to a cautious path ahead. 2025-12-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — AMD is currently facing a challenging narrative environment with significant competition from NVDA in the AI GPU market. The structural picture indicates potential for repricing as the market assesses AMD's competitive positioning. 2025-12-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD's trajectory appears uncertain as the AI GPU competition narrative against NVDA remains unresolved. The recent lack of follow-through in price action suggests potential volatility ahead. 2025-12-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative around AI GPU competition with NVDA fails to translate into price gains. The price is currently ahead of the story, indicating a potential correction. 2025-12-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see continued volatility, with AMD struggling to gain traction in a competitive AI GPU landscape against NVDA. The unclear state suggests potential for either a rebound or further price consolidation. 2025-12-15 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — Given the unclear state and negative relative return, AMD may struggle to gain momentum in the short term. The competition narrative against NVDA remains but lacks the necessary follow-through to drive price action. 2025-12-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, AMD is likely to continue facing pricing pressure as the narrative surrounding AI GPU competition fails to translate into positive price movement. The repricing state indicates a struggle to align with market sentiment. 2025-12-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current divergence state and negative relative return, AMD is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term, particularly against the backdrop of heightened competition from NVIDIA in the AI GPU segment. 2025-12-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structure indicates continued divergence with AMD's narrative not translating into price gains, particularly against the backdrop of AI GPU competition with NVDA. Expect further challenges in the coming months as the story remains unrecognized by the market. 2025-12-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — AMD's repricing state suggests continued challenges in the competitive AI GPU landscape, particularly against NVIDIA. The narrative pressure remains strong, indicating potential headwinds in the coming months. 2025-12-22 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a positive narrative and early state, AMD is poised for a potential uptick in performance, particularly in the AI GPU segment. Relative strength against the benchmark suggests a favorable outlook. 2025-12-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD is likely to continue facing challenges as pricing dynamics reveal a lag in narrative alignment, particularly against NVDA's stronger positioning in the AI GPU space. Expect further repricing pressures. 2025-12-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's early state suggests a positive trajectory as it starts to follow price patterns, despite competitive pressures from NVDA. The narrative remains strong, indicating potential for continued gains in the near term. 2025-12-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's early state suggests a potential upward trajectory as it begins to align with positive narratives in the AI GPU competition. Continued monitoring of relative performance versus NVDA will be crucial. 2025-12-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD is in a repricing phase, indicating a potential stabilization in response to competitive pressures, particularly from NVDA. Expect fluctuations as the market assesses AMD's positioning in the AI GPU landscape. 2025-12-30 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD is likely to experience continued repricing as it navigates competitive pressures in the AI GPU market, particularly against NVIDIA. The narrative remains strong, but recent performance suggests a cautious approach is warranted. 2025-12-31 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — AMD is currently in a repricing phase, facing significant narrative pressures from competition, particularly from NVDA. The trajectory suggests continued challenges in gaining market momentum over the next 1-2 months. 2026-01-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and positive narrative dynamics, AMD is positioned for continued upward momentum in the next 1-2 months, particularly in the context of AI GPU competition against NVDA. 2026-01-05 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months may see volatility as AMD navigates the competitive landscape against NVIDIA, with potential for both upward and downward movements. Monitoring narrative shifts will be crucial. 2026-01-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD is experiencing a repricing phase amid competitive pressures from NVDA in the AI GPU sector. The trajectory suggests continued challenges in gaining market traction over the next couple of months. 2026-01-07 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — AMD's current state reflects a challenging macro environment with mixed narrative signals. The competition in the AI GPU space against NVDA continues to pressure AMD's relative performance, suggesting potential volatility in the near term. 2026-01-08 · inflection_pending · conv 0.40 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as AMD navigates unclear narrative pressures while competing with NVDA. A shift in sentiment could lead to either a recovery or further decline. 2026-01-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the narrative around AI GPU competition fails to translate into positive performance, particularly in light of the divergence state. AMD's relative underperformance against the benchmark raises concerns. 2026-01-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — AMD's narrative around AI GPU competition is not translating into positive price action, reflecting a divergence in market perception. Expect continued pressure in the near term as the broader semiconductor sector struggles with similar issues. 2026-01-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current price-led state and negative narrative dislocation, AMD is likely to face continued pressure over the next couple of months. The AI GPU competition narrative against NVDA has not translated into positive price action, indicating a challenging environment ahead. 2026-01-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a negative narrative dislocation score and price-led state, AMD is likely to face continued pressure over the next couple of months. The competitive landscape against NVIDIA in the AI GPU market will weigh heavily on its performance. 2026-01-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD's price-pressured state suggests continued struggles against negative narrative dislocation. The competitive landscape with NVIDIA remains a significant headwind. 2026-01-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's current state shows significant narrative dislocation and declining performance relative to peers, particularly in the AI GPU sector. Expect continued downward pressure in the next 1-2 months as competition intensifies. 2026-01-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current narrative pressure and negative dislocation score, AMD is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term. The competition narrative against NVDA may weigh heavily on performance as it struggles to align price with narrative. 2026-01-21 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD's narrative around AI GPU competition is currently confirmed, but with a significant negative narrative dislocation score, indicating potential challenges ahead. The recent positive relative performance suggests some resilience, but caution is warranted as market dynamics rem 2026-01-22 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and a positive narrative around AI GPU competition, AMD is likely to maintain upward momentum in the short term. The recent price performance suggests a strengthening market position relative to peers. 2026-01-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests continued pressure on AMD's price due to the negative narrative dislocation. Despite strong narrative support, the lack of price movement indicates potential challenges ahead in the AI GPU competition against NVDA. 2026-01-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's confirmed narrative around AI GPU competition against NVDA is likely to support continued price strength in the next 1-2 months. The positive narrative divergence suggests potential for upward price movement despite sector challenges. 2026-01-27 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD's recent early state suggests a potential for price recovery driven by positive narrative momentum. However, competition from NVIDIA remains a significant headwind, indicating a mixed outlook over the next couple of months. 2026-01-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's repricing suggests continued challenges in aligning price with the strong narrative surrounding AI GPUs. As competition intensifies, particularly against Nvidia, a cautious outlook persists. 2026-01-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Given the persistent repricing state and the significant narrative pressure from AI GPU competition, AMD is likely to experience further challenges in price recovery over the next couple of months. 2026-01-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's current divergence state suggests continued pressure as the positive AI GPU narrative fails to translate into price gains. With a significant negative relative performance, further downside risk remains likely in the near term. 2026-02-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — As of now, AMD's pricing is under pressure despite a strong narrative around AI GPU competition. The recent repricing suggests a struggle to align price with positive narrative momentum, indicating potential further declines in the near term. 2026-02-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD is expected to struggle with pricing pressures as competition from NVDA intensifies, leading to a continuation of the repricing trend. The narrative strength is not translating into price performance. 2026-02-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current divergence and negative relative performance, AMD is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the near term as the narrative around AI GPU competition struggles to translate into price support. The ongoing competitive landscape, particularly with NVDA, may 2026-02-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as AMD struggles to convert positive narrative into price movement, particularly against the backdrop of heightened competition from NVDA in the AI GPU space. 2026-02-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — AMD's narrative around AI GPU competition is strong, but it is not translating into positive price movement, indicating continued bearish pressure in the near term. The divergence suggests potential for further repricing if the story does not gain traction. 2026-02-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued divergence with narratives failing to translate into price movement. Expect downward pressure as competition with NVDA looms. 2026-02-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued challenges for AMD as it navigates a competitive landscape dominated by NVIDIA in the AI GPU sector. Structural divergence suggests further pricing pressures ahead. 2026-02-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD's current confirmed state indicates a stable narrative despite recent divergence scores. Expect continued competition with Nvidia, resulting in mixed performance over the next couple of months. 2026-02-12 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.40 — In the near term, AMD faces a challenging narrative landscape with price-led dynamics indicating potential volatility. The competition with NVIDIA in the AI GPU space will be pivotal for sentiment and performance over the next couple of months. 2026-02-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, AMD may continue to struggle with pricing pressure and narrative lagging behind competitors, particularly in the AI GPU space. The repricing state indicates ongoing volatility. 2026-02-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — As of now, AMD is in a repricing phase with a slight positive narrative but is lagging behind its competitor NVDA. Expect continued challenges in maintaining momentum due to competitive pressures. 2026-02-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural divergence suggests continued price weakness despite a positive narrative in the AI GPU sector. AMD may struggle to gain traction against competition from NVDA. 2026-02-19 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD is currently in a repricing phase, suggesting a cautious optimism as it navigates competitive pressures from NVDA in the AI GPU segment. The near-term trajectory indicates potential stabilization, but the narrative dynamics remain complex. 2026-02-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — AMD continues to experience repricing pressures, lagging behind peers like NVDA and ARM. The competitive landscape in AI GPUs suggests ongoing challenges over the next couple of months. 2026-02-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as the narrative around AI GPU competition with NVDA weighs heavily on AMD's stock. Despite some positive narrative elements, the divergence in price suggests limited upward momentum. 2026-02-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — AMD is positioned at an early stage with a narrative shift towards AI GPU competition, suggesting potential upward momentum. However, the divergence in price behavior indicates caution as the market assesses its competitive stance against NVDA. 2026-02-25 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD is experiencing early momentum with a positive narrative, but the trajectory suggests potential fluctuations in performance against peers like NVDA. Continued monitoring of competitive positioning is essential. 2026-02-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued challenges as AMD's pricing struggles persist against a backdrop of intense competition from NVIDIA. A potential stabilization could occur if narratives shift positively. 2026-02-27 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD's trajectory indicates potential stabilization amidst competitive pressures, particularly from NVDA. The narrative suggests a cautious outlook as the repricing phase continues. 2026-03-02 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — As of now, AMD is in a repricing state with a strong narrative but facing slight negative relative performance against its peers. The next 1-2 months may see volatility as it navigates competition from NVDA in the AI GPU sector. 2026-03-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to reflect continued divergence in AMD's narrative versus its pricing, indicating persistent bearish sentiment, particularly in the context of competition with NVDA. Without a catalyst, price may remain under pressure. 2026-03-04 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD's current repricing suggests a volatile period ahead, with strong narrative support but lagging price performance. Competitive pressures, particularly from NVIDIA, may hinder immediate upward momentum. 2026-03-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current repricing state and persistent divergence from narrative expectations, AMD is likely to face continued pricing pressure in the near term, particularly against NVDA's competitive narrative. 2026-03-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued downward pressure as AMD's repricing state indicates challenges in aligning with the AI GPU narrative against NVDA. The divergence from peers signals potential ongoing struggles. 2026-03-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD is likely to navigate a complex competitive landscape against NVDA, with early signals indicating potential upward momentum but significant narrative pressures remaining. The current trajectory suggests volatility as the market assesses AMD's positioni 2026-03-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and a strong narrative score, AMD is positioned for continued bullish momentum in the AI GPU competition against NVDA. Expect stable price performance as the narrative reinforces positive sentiment. 2026-03-11 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD's early state indicates potential for upward momentum, but the mixed peer context suggests caution due to competitive pressures from NVIDIA. The trajectory shows a positive narrative but fluctuating relative performance. 2026-03-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.68 — Given the current repricing state and ongoing AI GPU competition narrative against NVDA, AMD may continue to face headwinds. The recent trajectory suggests a struggle to maintain upward momentum in the short term. 2026-03-13 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD is positioned in an early state with a strong narrative focus on AI GPU competition against NVDA. Given the recent repricing and a positive narrative score, there is potential for upward movement, but mixed signals from peers suggest caution. 2026-03-16 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD's repricing state indicates a cautious market adjustment amid strong AI GPU competition narratives. Expect potential fluctuations as the market reassesses AMD's positioning against peers like NVDA. 2026-03-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the repricing state and negative relative return, AMD may continue to struggle against the competitive narrative from NVIDIA. Price adjustments are likely as market sentiment remains cautious. 2026-03-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — AMD's current repricing state suggests continued pressure in the near term, particularly against a backdrop of strong competition from NVDA. The narrative remains potent but is not translating into positive price movement. 2026-03-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD is positioned for a bullish continuation as the narrative around AI GPU competition heats up. With the current early state and positive relative return, momentum is likely to build over the next couple of months. 2026-03-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and positive narrative momentum, AMD is likely to sustain its bullish trajectory in the AI GPU market. Continued focus on competition with NVDA may further bolster investor confidence. 2026-03-23 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD is positioned for continued growth in the AI GPU market, particularly as competition with NVDA intensifies. The confirmed narrative and positive trajectory suggest further upward movement in the coming months. 2026-03-24 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.80 — With a confirmed state and a strong narrative score, AMD is poised for continued upward momentum in the next couple of months, driven by the competitive landscape in AI GPUs against NVDA. 2026-03-25 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD's strong narrative around AI GPU competition is currently being overshadowed by a negative narrative dislocation score, suggesting potential volatility in pricing. The positive relative return indicates some resilience, but caution is warranted as the market dynamics shift. 2026-03-26 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a positive narrative and early structural state, AMD is positioned for potential upward movement in the coming months, especially in the context of AI GPU competition. However, price performance is still lagging behind the narrative strength. 2026-03-27 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — AMD is experiencing early signs of price alignment with a strong narrative around AI GPU competition, although it remains sensitive to market dynamics. Continued scrutiny of Nvidia's performance may influence AMD's trajectory in the coming months. 2026-03-30 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD is currently in an early state with a strong narrative, but price performance is lagging. Expect volatility as the market assesses the competitive landscape against NVDA. 2026-03-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD is expected to navigate a challenging landscape as it reprices amidst strong competition from NVIDIA. The ongoing narrative pressure suggests a need for strategic repositioning to maintain momentum. 2026-04-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next couple of months, AMD is likely to continue experiencing downward pricing pressure as the narrative around AI GPU competition with NVDA fails to translate into positive price movement. The current state of repricing suggests further challenges ahead. 2026-04-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD is positioned for potential growth as it gains traction in the AI GPU market, despite competitive pressures from NVDA. The early state suggests a favorable trajectory in the near term. 2026-04-06 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the early state and positive narrative pressure, AMD is likely to maintain upward momentum in the near term. The competition narrative with NVDA may continue to drive interest and investment. 2026-04-07 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The confirmed state indicates strong momentum, with positive sentiment around AMD's position in the AI GPU market against NVDA. Expect continued upward pressure in the coming months as the narrative strengthens. 2026-04-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's price is confirming the narrative surrounding AI GPU competition, showing resilience despite sector pressures. Continued positive relative performance suggests a bullish outlook in the near term. 2026-04-09 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's confirmed state indicates a positive narrative momentum amidst AI GPU competition. Expect continued price support as the narrative aligns with recent performance. 2026-04-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's narrative surrounding AI GPU competition against NVDA remains strong, evidenced by a positive narrative dislocation score and relative performance. Expect continued upward momentum as the market responds to AMD's positioning in the sector. 2026-04-13 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's confirmed state indicates a strong narrative alignment with positive relative performance. Continued focus on AI GPU competition may bolster further gains in the coming months. 2026-04-14 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's price is confirming a positive narrative amidst strong competition in the AI GPU market, suggesting continued upward momentum in the near term. Despite the competitive landscape, AMD is positioned to capitalize on its strengths as the sector evolves. 2026-04-15 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Given the confirmed state and positive narrative trajectory, AMD is likely to maintain its momentum in the near term, particularly in the context of ongoing AI GPU competition. The bullish sentiment suggests further price appreciation over the next couple of months. 2026-04-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests a challenging environment for AMD as it navigates heightened competition in the AI GPU space. Expect continued pressure on price performance in the coming months. 2026-04-17 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's price is confirming a positive narrative amidst strong competition in the AI GPU sector, particularly against NVDA. Expect continued upward momentum in the coming months as structural indicators remain favorable. 2026-04-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's current structural state supports a bullish outlook as it confirms its narrative amidst a competitive AI GPU landscape. Expect continued relative strength in the coming months. 2026-04-21 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Despite a confirmed state, AMD's narrative is under pressure from strong AI GPU competition, particularly against NVDA. The recent trajectory suggests potential volatility ahead as the market re-evaluates its stance. 2026-04-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a significant narrative dislocation and confirmed price weakness, AMD may continue to struggle against competitive pressures from NVDA and broader sector dynamics. The next couple of months may see further price adjustments as the market digests these challenges. 2026-04-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD's price is currently confirming the narrative around AI GPU competition, but recent fluctuations indicate potential volatility. Expect a mixed trajectory as market sentiment stabilizes. 2026-04-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.80 — The structural picture indicates a significant decline in narrative dislocation and a relative performance that suggests ongoing challenges. Expect continued pressure in the near term as competition intensifies. 2026-04-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD is likely to experience continued pressure as the narrative around AI GPU competition intensifies, particularly against NVDA. The recent negative NDS trend suggests that the market may not respond positively to AMD's narrative despite its strong relati 2026-04-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the near term, AMD's trajectory suggests continued price pressure despite a strong narrative presence in the AI GPU space. The recent dislocation score indicates a divergence from peers, which could hinder upward momentum. 2026-04-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD's current narrative around AI GPU competition remains strong, but recent price performance shows signs of divergence. Expect volatility as the market assesses AMD's competitive stance against NVDA and broader sector dynamics. 2026-04-30 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD may experience volatility as it navigates competitive pressures against NVIDIA, with recent negative narrative dislocation potentially impacting performance. However, relative strength suggests some resilience in the face of challenges. 2026-05-01 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — AMD's structural state is early, suggesting potential volatility as it navigates the competitive AI GPU landscape against NVDA. The narrative is strong, but recent price action indicates mixed responses to this competition. 2026-05-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — AMD is currently experiencing a repricing phase, with a narrative focused on AI GPU competition against NVDA. Given the structural state, a bearish continuation is expected as pressures from peers and market dynamics persist. 2026-05-05 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's confirmed state suggests a strong bullish momentum, with narrative support from AI GPU competition. Expect continued price appreciation over the next 1-2 months as market sentiment aligns with the narrative. 2026-05-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state but significant narrative dislocation, AMD may face continued downward pressure in the near term as the AI GPU competition narrative against NVIDIA intensifies. Expect volatility as market sentiment fluctuates. 2026-05-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD may continue to experience price pressure despite a confirmed narrative, as the negative narrative dislocation score suggests potential headwinds. The competitive landscape with NVDA remains challenging. 2026-05-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD is likely to face continued price pressure as the narrative surrounding AI GPU competition with NVDA remains strong but is not translating into price gains. The current negative narrative dislocation score suggests potential challenges ahead. 2026-05-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, AMD is likely to face continued price pressure as the AI GPU competition narrative intensifies, particularly against NVDA. The negative narrative dislocation score suggests a challenging environment for price recovery. 2026-05-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite a confirmed narrative, AMD's price is struggling against significant negative narrative dislocation. The competitive landscape against NVDA may weigh heavily on performance in the coming months. 2026-05-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates a potential inflection point for AMD as it navigates early signs of repricing. While the narrative remains strong, recent volatility suggests caution in the near term. 2026-05-14 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, AMD is likely to experience volatility as it navigates competitive pressures from NVDA in the AI GPU space. The confirmed state suggests some resilience, but recent price actions indicate potential challenges ahead. 2026-05-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — AMD's narrative around AI GPU competition remains strong, yet the divergence in price suggests ongoing struggles to realize this narrative in market performance. Expect continued pressure in the near term as market sentiment weighs heavily against it. 2026-05-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's narrative around AI GPU competition remains strong, yet the price is diverging negatively. Expect continued pressure in the near term as the market fails to respond positively to the narrative. 2026-05-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's narrative strength in AI GPU competition against NVDA has not translated into price gains, as evidenced by the divergence state with a high NDS of +85.0 and a relative return of -8.01%. This suggests that while the narrative is strong, market confidence in AMD's ability to 2026-05-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD is currently experiencing a divergence with a strong AI GPU narrative against NVDA failing to translate into positive price movement. The narrative dislocation score is high at +78.0, but the relative return remains negative at -7.2%, indicating that the story is not being pa 2026-05-21 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — AMD's current repricing state suggests a potential shift as its AI GPU competition narrative against NVDA remains strong but has yet to translate into significant price movement. The company's NDS of +41.6 indicates the narrative is ahead of the price, but recent relative returns 2026-05-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — AMD is positioned in a repricing state as its AI GPU competition narrative against NVDA remains strong, yet price performance is lagging. The narrative dislocation score is positive, indicating that the market is beginning to recognize AMD's potential, but the price has yet to fu 2026-05-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's competitive positioning against NVIDIA in the AI GPU market is currently driving a strong narrative confirmed by price action, as indicated by its positive relative return of +9.0%. With a narrative dislocation score (NDS) that has fluctuated but recently stabilized, AMD is 2026-05-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — AMD's price has been leading its AI GPU competition narrative against NVDA, a pattern that could continue as market participants digest recent performance gains. Despite a strong relative return, AMD's narrative dislocation score suggests that the price may have gotten ahead of t 2026-05-28 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — AMD's narrative around AI GPU competition with NVDA is robust, yet price action remains hesitant, reflected in a negative NDS of -67.2. This suggests that while the narrative is compelling, the market is waiting for more concrete performance indicators to align price with the sto 2026-05-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — AMD's price has been outperforming the broader market, bolstered by a strong AI GPU competition narrative against NVDA. However, the narrative dislocation score (NDS) is negative, indicating the price is leading the narrative. This suggests potential volatility as the narrative a 2026-05-31 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's AI GPU narrative continues to mature, yet the price lags behind its robust story. With the narrative consistently strong, AMD is positioned to see its price align with its AI GPU advancements over the next 1-2 months, especially as peers like NVDA face divergence in their s 2026-06-01 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — AMD's AI GPU competition narrative against NVDA is gaining traction, with its price performance confirming the narrative's strength. Despite the broader field's 'story not being paid' pattern, AMD's relative return of +11.5% indicates a distinct bullish trajectory. The current co Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-24 FIRST
bearish cont. 0.75
“AMD's narrative around AI GPU competition is strong but is not translating into price performance. Expect continued divergence as market sentiment remains cautious.”
2026-01-02
bullish cont. 0.75
“With a confirmed state and positive narrative dynamics, AMD is positioned for continued upward momentum in the next 1-2 months, particularly in the context of AI GPU competition against NVDA.”
2026-02-10
bearish cont. 0.70
“The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued challenges for AMD as it navigates a competitive landscape dominated by NVIDIA in the AI GPU sector. Structural divergence suggests further pricing pressures ahead.”
2026-03-19
bullish cont. 0.70
“AMD is positioned for a bullish continuation as the narrative around AI GPU competition heats up. With the current early state and positive relative return, momentum is likely to build over the next couple of months.”
2026-04-27
bearish cont. 0.70
“In the next 1-2 months, AMD is likely to experience continued pressure as the narrative around AI GPU competition intensifies, particularly against NVDA. The recent negative NDS trend suggests that the market may not respond positively to AMD's narrative despite its strong relati”
2026-06-01 TODAY
bullish cont. 0.70
“AMD's AI GPU competition narrative against NVDA is gaining traction, with its price performance confirming the narrative's strength. Despite the broader field's 'story not being paid' pattern, AMD's relative return of +11.5% indicates a distinct bullish trajectory. The current co”
L3 Expectation Lifecycle Field BUILT V1
Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.
adds Turns AMD's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today 54 theses tracked over the window; 2 active today, 0 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 54 · strengthened 0 · weakened 2 · contradicted 15 · retired 67.
AMD’s expectation theses 28 theses shown · 54 total
↓ AI-driven growth and stock performance
─ AI-driven growth and stock performance
↓ Nvidia's strategic moves in AI semiconductors
↓ Warren Buffett's investment strategy shifts
↑ Nvidia's strategic moves in AI semiconductors
─ Nvidia's strategic moves in AI semiconductors
↓ Dell Technologies Growth and Challenges
↑ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
↓ Broadcom's AI and connectivity prospects
↓ Intel stock resurgence and optimism
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
↓ AI-driven semiconductor market dynamics
─ Nvidia's AI dominance and market dynamics
↓ Nvidia's AI dominance and market dynamics
↓ AI stock market dynamics and trends
─ AI stock market dynamics and trends
─ AI chip market dynamics and competition
↑ AI stock market dynamics and trends
↑ Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
─ Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
↓ Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
↑ AI chip market dynamics and trends
↑ AI-driven semiconductor market optimism
↓ Alphabet's growth and investment potential
↓ AMD stock outlook and catalysts
↓ AMD stock outlook and market dynamics
↓ AI semiconductor market dynamics
─ AI-driven chip market dynamics
● born▲ strengthened▼ weakened✕ contradicted○ retired
2026-01-02
3 active theses
2026-02-10
1 active thesis
2026-03-19
4 active theses
2026-04-27
3 active theses
L4 Performance Field BUILT V1
Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.
adds Closes the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
today System-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. AMD appears in 17 public regions and 8 limited, including 4 inverted.
AMD appears in 35 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · direction sample 5d hit 20d hit actors
↓ Nvidia's AI Market Challenges and Opportunities
n=61
51% (+3pp)
43% (-7pp)
19
↑ Microsoft's AI Strategy and Market Position
n=48
58% (+10pp)
54% (+5pp)
11
↓ AI stock market dynamics and trends
n=47
32% (-16pp)
35% (-14pp)
15
↓ AI investment strategies and market outlook
n=45
44% (-3pp)
27% (-23pp)
18
↓ AI-driven growth and stock performance
n=39
56% (+9pp)
54% (+4pp)
16
↑ Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
n=24
46% (-2pp)
38% (-12pp)
5
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).