Archived research surface·Last refreshed Jun 1, 2026. Not currently maintained as a daily product.
SYSTEM · ARCHITECTURE

Tracing one actor through the stacked field model

Worked example: TSM across 119 days of corpus (2025-12-09 → 2026-06-01). Each layer card below shows what the system saw for this actor at that layer over the whole window.

Retrace another actor
AAPLADBEAMDAMZNANETARMASMLAVGOCEGCRMCRWVDDOGDELLGOOGLINTCMETAMPMRVLMSFTMUNBISNFLXNVDAORCLPLTRSMCISNOWTSLATSMTTDVRTVST
Point-in-time. At any time t the system only uses data available at or before t. Conviction is the model’s confidence at parse time, not a calibrated probability. Calibration, source/actor trust priors, and region reliability are planned in F-007.
Throughline
TSM’s daily expectation moved from bearish continuation (0.65, 2025-11-26) through a peak of bullish continuation 0.75 (2026-04-27) to today’s bearish continuation (0.70).
L0Event FieldBUILT

Raw signal layer. Every event becomes a point in a 1,536-dimensional semantic space at the timestamp of its occurrence, with actors linked, source, relevance, and a data-quality flag.

addsCaptures every news, filing, transcript, and social post naming TSM, point-in-time, ready for upstream clustering.
today763 events naming TSM in the 130-day window where every layer has coverage (1,568 in the full L0 corpus). Sources: NewsAPI, Finnhub news + transcripts, Reddit, X-amplification, SEC filings.
events per day naming TSM763 total · peak 69 on 01-15
Peak day sample: “TSMC Q4 profit jumps 35% to record, beats expectations”
Minor gaps9 of 130 days in this window had zero events for TSM. Some of this is real news quietness; some reflects pipeline gaps in Dec 2025 / Jan 2026 / early Feb 2026 (post-holiday weeks where fetch_today.py ran in degraded mode). A targeted gap backfill ran on 2026-05-18 to repair this; daily health checks were added downstream to prevent recurrence.
2025-11-26FIRST
0
events
2026-01-05
4
events
2026-02-11
5
events
2026-03-19
6
events
2026-04-27
3
events
2026-06-01TODAY
10
events
L1Narrative FieldBUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED

Events embed into a shared semantic space and cluster into coherent storms. Each storm has a stable ID that persists across days through F-002 lineage matching.

addsPlaces TSM inside a named narrative each day — and tracks when its center of mass shifts to a different one.
todayPrimary cluster: “intel / broadcom / apple”. Density (7d): 0.227 (momentum +0.007, novelty 0.28). Cluster labels are auto-generated from the full event neighborhood — actor membership reflects shared AI-sector coverage, not exclusive company-specific coverage.
TSM’s primary cluster over time104 distinct clusters · 117 transitions
Colored band = primary cluster label. Line = semantic_density_7d. Cluster transitions are where the actor’s narrative center of mass shifted.
2025-11-26FIRST
—
2026-01-05
AI-driven semiconductor investment outlook
3d in this narrative
2026-02-11
ASML market momentum and growth
1d in this narrative
2026-03-19
Middle East Conflict Impact on Markets
7d in this narrative
2026-04-27
AMD stock outlook and market dynamics
2d in this narrative
2026-06-01TODAY
—
L2Expectation FieldBUILT V1

Forward views per actor, embedded into the same semantic space and attached to their nearest L1 storm.

addsTurns TSM's narrative position into a directional thesis with conviction — a daily forward expectation.
todayLatest: bearish continuation at conviction 0.70. “TSM's current negative confirmation state suggests that despite strong narrative around advanced node demand, geopolitical risks are exerting significant downward pressure. This bearish trend is likely to persist over the next couple of months unless there's a significant de-esca”
TSM’s daily expectation128 days · direction = bar color · conviction = bar height
2025-11-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM is likely to continue experiencing pricing pressure as strong narrative support fails to translate into price gains, similar to peers in the sector. Geopolitical risks may further exacerbate this pricing lag.2025-11-28 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state indicates potential volatility in the near term as advanced node demand remains uncertain amidst geopolitical risks. Expect fluctuations as pricing aligns with narrative developments.2025-12-01 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state indicates a potential stabilization after recent fluctuations, though geopolitical risks remain a concern. Expect cautious movements in the near term as the market assesses advanced node demand.2025-12-02 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — With the current repricing state and a slight decline in narrative strength, TSM may face challenges in maintaining momentum. However, advanced node demand could provide a potential turning point in the coming months.2025-12-03 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As of now, TSM is experiencing a repricing phase with a declining narrative score, indicating potential volatility ahead. The geopolitical risks coupled with advanced node demand may create an uncertain environment, but the recent relative performance suggests some resilience.2025-12-04 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see TSM navigating through repricing challenges as advanced node demand remains a focal point, but geopolitical risks could introduce volatility. A cautious outlook is warranted as the narrative stabilizes.2025-12-05 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests a cautious recovery as advanced node demand stabilizes, though geopolitical risks may create volatility. Continued repricing indicates a potential for upward movement, albeit in a mixed market context.2025-12-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a positive narrative score and early state classification, TSM is positioned for continued momentum in the coming months, driven by advanced node demand. The recent trajectory suggests a strengthening alignment of price with narrative.2025-12-09 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture shows early signs of positive momentum, driven by strong advanced node demand. Continued geopolitical risks may introduce volatility, but overall sentiment appears favorable for the next couple of months.2025-12-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a positive narrative and strong NDS, TSM is positioned for continued upward momentum in the near term. The early state suggests potential for sustained gains as demand for advanced nodes remains robust.2025-12-11 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With the current early state and improving narrative dynamics, TSM is positioned for potential price appreciation in the coming months. The advanced node demand narrative supports a bullish outlook despite geopolitical risks.2025-12-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture suggests TSM may struggle to gain traction in the near term due to ongoing repricing dynamics despite favorable narrative support. The market appears skeptical of the narrative's ability to translate into price action.2025-12-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current repricing state and lagging narrative, TSM is likely to continue facing pressure in the near term. The geopolitical risks combined with the divergence in the sector suggest a challenging environment ahead.2025-12-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing as the narrative around advanced node demand struggles to translate into price gains. Geopolitical risks may further exacerbate this pressure.2025-12-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the narrative of advanced node demand fails to translate into positive price action amidst geopolitical risks. The divergence state suggests persistent challenges in gaining market traction.2025-12-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on TSM's price, despite strong narrative support from advanced node demand. The divergence trend indicates that the market may not fully recognize this demand.2025-12-19 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests continued repricing as advanced node demand remains a critical narrative, but geopolitical risks may lead to volatility. Expect fluctuations while the market reassesses its stance on growth prospects.2025-12-22 · neutral_macro · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests a continuation of repricing as advanced node demand remains a focal point, but geopolitical risks may temper enthusiasm. Expect a cautious path forward with potential volatility.2025-12-23 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture suggests a positive outlook as demand for advanced nodes begins to stabilize. Continued geopolitical risks may temper enthusiasm, but early recovery signals are present.2025-12-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates a challenging environment with negative narrative dislocation, suggesting volatility. However, the relative performance is positive, indicating some resilience in the face of geopolitical concerns.2025-12-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued downward pressure due to geopolitical risks and a negative narrative, suggesting a bearish outlook over the next 1-2 months. Price may struggle to regain upward momentum amidst these challenges.2025-12-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price pressure as geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment, despite recent gains. The narrative is weak, and further repricing may occur.2025-12-30 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see volatility as TSM grapples with macro pressures and geopolitical risks, while advanced node demand remains a key focus. Expect fluctuations in narrative strength as market conditions evolve.2025-12-31 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued pressure on TSM's performance due to geopolitical risks impacting demand. Expect further price adjustments in the coming months as the narrative remains negative.2026-01-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The trajectory indicates a challenging environment as advanced node demand faces geopolitical risks. Expect continued downward pressure on performance over the next couple of months.2026-01-05 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — As of this date, TSM's structural picture indicates a mixed outlook due to confirmed demand for advanced nodes but offset by geopolitical risks impacting sentiment. Expect fluctuations in price as market reactions to external factors continue.2026-01-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The confirmed state indicates a persistent bearish sentiment driven by geopolitical risks, despite a recent uptick in narrative strength. Expect continued pressures in the semiconductor sector as advanced node demand remains uncertain.2026-01-07 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, TSM is likely to experience volatility as advanced node demand remains strong, but geopolitical risks may weigh on overall sentiment. The trajectory suggests a need for careful navigation amid mixed sector dynamics.2026-01-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a strong narrative around advanced node demand and a solid NDS, TSM is positioned for continued price support in the near term. However, geopolitical risks may introduce volatility.2026-01-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued repricing pressure despite strong narrative around advanced node demand. Expect further challenges as the market evaluates geopolitical risks and price performance relative to peers.2026-01-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM is likely to face continued challenges as the narrative around advanced node demand struggles to translate into price movement, amid rising geopolitical risks. The current repricing state indicates potential for further downside.2026-01-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — As TSM continues to experience repricing, the strong narrative around advanced node demand may not be sufficient to overcome geopolitical risks in the near term. Watch for potential shifts in market sentiment that could influence pricing dynamics.2026-01-14 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With early signs of price stability and strong narrative support, TSM is likely to maintain momentum in the coming months. Continued advanced node demand may bolster performance despite geopolitical risks.2026-01-15 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The confirmed state indicates a continuation of positive momentum driven by advanced node demand despite geopolitical risks. Expect steady price performance in the near term.2026-01-16 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture suggests a continuation of positive performance driven by advanced node demand, despite geopolitical risks. Expect stable price action with potential for gradual gains.2026-01-20 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural indicators suggest a positive trajectory for TSM, driven by strong advanced node demand. Continued geopolitical risks may introduce volatility, but the outlook remains favorable for the next couple of months.2026-01-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM is likely to continue facing challenges as the price lags behind the strong narrative of advanced node demand, compounded by geopolitical risks. The repricing state indicates persistent downward pressure.2026-01-22 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The recent repricing state indicates persistent challenges in translating strong narrative into price gains. Given geopolitical risks and a lagging price performance, TSM may continue to face downward pressure in the near term.2026-01-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With the current repricing state and negative relative return, TSM's price is likely to continue lagging despite strong narrative support on advanced node demand. Geopolitical risks may further weigh on performance in the near term.2026-01-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may continue to see TSM's price lag behind the narrative of advanced node demand due to ongoing geopolitical risks. The repricing state suggests persistent pressure on the stock despite positive sentiment.2026-01-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite positive advanced node demand narratives, TSM's price is lagging significantly. The repricing state indicates ongoing challenges in translating strong fundamentals into price action over the next couple of months.2026-01-28 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see TSM navigating through early recovery signals, influenced by advanced node demand and geopolitical risks. However, the trajectory suggests caution due to recent repricing dynamics.2026-01-29 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — With a positive narrative around advanced node demand, TSM's price is beginning to align with the favorable sentiment. However, geopolitical risks may introduce volatility, leading to a mixed outlook in the near term.2026-01-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates continued repricing pressure, with price lagging behind the strong narrative of advanced node demand. Expect volatility as geopolitical risks may further influence market sentiment.2026-02-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture indicates a potential bullish continuation as advanced node demand starts to gain traction, despite geopolitical risks. Price is beginning to follow the narrative, suggesting a positive trajectory in the coming months.2026-02-03 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The outlook remains positive as advanced node demand shows early signs of traction, despite geopolitical risks. Price is beginning to follow narrative improvements, suggesting a potential upward trend in the coming months.2026-02-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — With narrative pressure from geopolitical risks and a repricing state, TSM is likely to face continued headwinds in the near term. The structural picture suggests a challenging environment for price recovery over the next couple of months.2026-02-05 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the short term, TSM is likely to see a mixed trajectory as demand for advanced nodes remains strong, but geopolitical risks could weigh on investor sentiment. Continued scrutiny on pricing dynamics may lead to volatility.2026-02-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural picture suggests continued price pressure due to negative narrative dislocation and geopolitical concerns. Expect limited upside in the next 1-2 months as sentiment remains cautious.2026-02-09 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current early state signals potential for a price recovery as advanced node demand remains strong, though geopolitical risks could hinder momentum. Expect fluctuations with a cautious outlook as the narrative stabilizes.2026-02-10 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a confirmed state but a declining narrative dislocation score, TSM faces challenges in sustaining its recent performance. The geopolitical risks and weakening demand may lead to further price adjustments in the near term.2026-02-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure on TSM's performance due to geopolitical risks affecting advanced node demand, with negative narrative dislocation scores indicating potential challenges ahead.2026-02-12 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The structural picture suggests potential volatility as TSM navigates advanced node demand and geopolitical risks. Expect a cautious path with possible price adjustments in the coming months.2026-02-13 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a bullish continuation as demand for advanced nodes remains strong and price action confirms the narrative. Expect continued upward momentum in the near term.2026-02-17 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM is likely to experience fluctuations as it navigates ongoing advanced node demand while facing geopolitical uncertainties. The early state indicates potential for both upward and downward movements depending on external factors.2026-02-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, TSM is likely to face continued pricing pressure as the narrative around advanced node demand struggles to translate into price appreciation. Geopolitical risks may further complicate recovery.2026-02-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The semiconductor sector faces headwinds, with TSM's repricing indicating continued pressure on stock performance. Geopolitical risks may further dampen sentiment in the coming months.2026-02-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The near-term outlook suggests a challenging environment with a repricing state, driven by a mix of advanced node demand and geopolitical risks. Price movements may remain volatile as the narrative stabilizes.2026-02-23 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The outlook remains cautious as TSM struggles with a repricing phase amid declining narrative strength. Geopolitical risks are likely to continue exerting pressure on its performance in the near term.2026-02-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With a negative narrative dislocation score and price-led state, TSM is likely to face continued downward pressure in the near term. Advanced node demand may not offset geopolitical risks effectively.2026-02-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pressure on TSM's pricing, driven by geopolitical factors impacting demand. The negative narrative dislocation signals a bearish outlook.2026-02-26 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The next couple of months may see volatility as TSM's price-led state indicates uncertainty. Advanced node demand remains a key factor but geopolitical risks could weigh heavily on performance.2026-02-27 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued pricing pressure as geopolitical risks and weak narrative persist. The repricing state suggests potential further declines in market sentiment.2026-03-02 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current macro state and declining narrative strength, TSM is likely to experience continued pressure in the near term. Geopolitical risks may further exacerbate challenges in advanced node demand.2026-03-03 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The current divergence suggests TSM may continue to face downward pressure despite positive narratives surrounding advanced node demand. Short-term performance is likely to remain underwhelming as the market fails to respond favorably.2026-03-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The 1-2 month outlook suggests continued challenges as positive narrative fails to translate into price movement. Divergence remains a critical concern amid geopolitical risks.2026-03-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the divergence state and strong narrative around advanced node demand, TSM's price is likely to continue lagging despite positive sentiment. The geopolitical risks may further complicate recovery efforts in the near term.2026-03-06 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The strong narrative around advanced node demand combined with an improving NDS suggests a bullish trajectory over the next couple of months, despite recent relative underperformance. The divergence indicates potential for a price correction aligning with narrative strength.2026-03-09 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates a challenging near-term outlook, with narrative strength not translating into positive price movement. Expect continued pressure as geopolitical risks loom.2026-03-10 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — Given the repricing state and strong narrative, TSM may stabilize in the near term, but geopolitical risks could hinder momentum. Watch for potential shifts as market dynamics evolve.2026-03-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the near term, TSM is likely to face continued challenges as geopolitical risks impact advanced node demand. The repricing state suggests a cautious outlook with potential for further downside.2026-03-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The near-term trajectory suggests continued repricing pressures as geopolitical risks weigh on advanced node demand. Market sentiment may remain cautious over the next couple of months.2026-03-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state indicates a persistent negative narrative surrounding geopolitical risks, which may continue to pressure TSM's stock in the near term. Expect fluctuations as the market adjusts to these ongoing concerns.2026-03-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The near-term outlook suggests continued pricing pressures amid geopolitical risks impacting demand for advanced nodes. Expect a cautious approach from investors as the narrative remains heavy.2026-03-17 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — The current repricing state suggests a potential stabilization in TSM's trajectory, with narrative pressures on advanced node demand and geopolitical factors weighing heavily. Short-term fluctuations may continue as the market reacts to these dynamics.2026-03-18 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM is likely to experience continued repricing as advanced node demand remains strong, but geopolitical risks may create volatility and limit upside potential.2026-03-19 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural indicators suggest continued upward momentum in the near term, driven by strong advanced node demand despite geopolitical risks. Expect price stability and potential gains as the market digests this narrative.2026-03-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as geopolitical risks affect demand dynamics, but advanced node demand remains a supportive factor. Expect volatility as the market digests these mixed signals.2026-03-23 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — Expect continued positive momentum as advanced node demand supports price stability. The geopolitical risk may temper growth but is currently outweighed by demand factors.2026-03-24 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — Over the next 1-2 months, TSM is likely to experience fluctuations driven by advanced node demand and geopolitical risks, with price movements expected to align more closely with narrative pressures. The early state suggests potential for growth, albeit with caution due to extern2026-03-25 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM is likely to maintain its upward trajectory as advanced node demand continues to support price improvements amidst geopolitical risks. The current early state indicates potential for further positive movement.2026-03-26 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM is expected to continue facing challenges as pricing fails to reflect strong advanced node demand amid geopolitical risks. The repricing state suggests persistent downward pressure on price despite favorable narrative conditions.2026-03-27 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the current early state and positive narrative, TSM is likely to see continued price support driven by advanced node demand despite geopolitical risks. Expect a gradual upward trajectory in the near term.2026-03-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued pricing pressure as narrative strength does not translate into price performance. Market sentiment remains cautious amid geopolitical risks.2026-03-31 · neutral_macro · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM is expected to maintain a repricing phase as it grapples with advanced node demand and geopolitical uncertainties, potentially stabilizing around current levels. The narrative remains strong, but market dynamics indicate cautious sentiment.2026-04-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TSM is expected to continue facing headwinds as the narrative around advanced node demand fails to translate into price gains. The geopolitical risks further complicate the outlook, suggesting a challenging environment in the near term.2026-04-02 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With advanced node demand gaining traction and a positive narrative score, TSM appears poised for continued upward movement in the coming months. The early state indicates potential for price recovery as market sentiment improves.2026-04-06 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the coming months, TSM is likely to experience fluctuations as it navigates advanced node demand while facing geopolitical risks. The repricing state indicates a cautious market sentiment, but potential recovery could be on the horizon.2026-04-07 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With early structural indicators and a positive narrative score, TSM is poised for continued upward movement in the coming months, driven by advanced node demand. However, geopolitical risks remain a watchpoint.2026-04-08 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a potential continuation of price recovery driven by advanced node demand, despite geopolitical risks. Expect price to remain resilient in the near term.2026-04-09 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the near term, TSM may experience price fluctuations as the narrative of advanced node demand is tempered by geopolitical risks. The structural indicators suggest a potential for stabilization, but caution is warranted due to broader sector pressures.2026-04-10 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Given the early state and positive narrative around advanced node demand, TSM is likely to see continued price support in the near term. The geopolitical risks may create some volatility, but the overall outlook remains favorable.2026-04-13 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — The recent early state suggests a potential for stabilization in demand, but geopolitical risks could create volatility. Expect cautious movement in the near term as the market assesses these factors.2026-04-14 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The structural picture indicates a continuation of positive price momentum in the near term, fueled by strong demand for advanced nodes. However, geopolitical risks remain a concern that could impact stability.2026-04-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.75 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued repricing pressure as geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment, despite stable advanced node demand. Expect price to remain under pressure relative to the narrative context.2026-04-16 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural divergence indicates continued pressure on TSM, driven by geopolitical risks and a negative relative performance. Expect a challenging environment with potential volatility in the coming months.2026-04-17 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — With persistent divergence and a declining relative return, TSM's near-term trajectory appears bearish. Geopolitical risks and demand fluctuations in advanced nodes could further impact performance over the coming months.2026-04-20 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — The outlook remains uncertain as TSM's divergence continues, with advanced node demand under pressure and geopolitical risks weighing on sentiment. Expect volatility in the near term as the market reassesses its position.2026-04-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite strong narratives around advanced node demand, TSM's stock continues to lag, reflecting a divergence from its positive narrative. Expect this trend to persist in the near term as market sentiment remains cautious.2026-04-22 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM may experience volatility as advanced node demand remains strong but geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment. The current repricing state suggests potential for recovery, yet price lagging narrative indicates caution.2026-04-23 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.65 — While TSM shows early signs of price recovery, geopolitical risks may hinder sustained momentum in the coming months. The narrative around advanced node demand remains strong but could face headwinds from broader sector divergences.2026-04-24 · inflection_pending · conv 0.65 — TSM appears to be at a critical juncture with confirmed demand for advanced nodes but faces significant geopolitical risks. The market may fluctuate as investors assess these competing factors over the next couple of months.2026-04-27 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.75 — With a confirmed state and positive relative return, TSM appears well-positioned to maintain upward momentum in the near term, driven by strong demand for advanced nodes amidst geopolitical considerations.2026-04-28 · bullish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The structural indicators suggest a positive trajectory for TSM in the coming months, as price appears to be starting to align with the narrative of advanced node demand despite geopolitical concerns. Continued monitoring is essential as volatility remains a factor.2026-04-29 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state suggests continued pressure on TSM's share price despite strong narrative support from advanced node demand. Expect volatility as the market grapples with geopolitical risks.2026-04-30 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing pressures as geopolitical risks impact demand dynamics, despite stable advanced node demand. The narrative suggests a cautious outlook amid price lagging indicators.2026-05-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — In the next 1-2 months, TSM is likely to continue experiencing downward pressure as the narrative of advanced node demand fails to translate into price appreciation. The current repricing state suggests ongoing challenges amidst geopolitical risks.2026-05-04 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The outlook suggests continued repricing pressure due to geopolitical risks impacting advanced node demand, potentially leading to further declines in relative performance. Expect cautious sentiment as the market adjusts.2026-05-05 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The current repricing state indicates that price may continue to lag behind the strong narrative of advanced node demand. Geopolitical risks may further exacerbate this disconnect in the coming months.2026-05-06 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are likely to see continued price lagging against a backdrop of geopolitical concerns and a persistent repricing state. Advanced node demand may not be sufficient to counteract these pressures.2026-05-07 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural state indicates continued repricing pressure, with narrative strength not translating into price appreciation. Expect further challenges in maintaining momentum over the next couple of months.2026-05-08 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The structural picture indicates ongoing repricing pressure, with narrative strength not translating into price gains. Expect continued volatility driven by geopolitical risks and advanced node demand dynamics.2026-05-11 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The divergence in TSM's narrative and price suggests continued weakness, as geopolitical risks overshadow advanced node demand. Expect pressure on valuation over the next couple of months.2026-05-12 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Despite strong narrative around advanced node demand, TSM's repricing state suggests continued price lagging. The geopolitical risks may further compound negative sentiment in the near term.2026-05-13 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — The next 1-2 months are expected to be challenging as the divergence between narrative and price continues, despite robust demand in advanced nodes. Geopolitical risks may further exacerbate this situation.2026-05-14 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — Over the next 1-2 months, TSM may continue to face downward pressure due to persistent geopolitical risks and a narrative that is not translating into price movement. The repricing state indicates that the market is adjusting to these concerns.2026-05-15 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may see continued repricing as advanced node demand struggles to translate into price gains against persistent geopolitical risks. The narrative remains strong, but the market response is lagging.2026-05-18 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.65 — The next 1-2 months may continue to see TSM under pricing pressure despite strong advanced node demand, as geopolitical risks weigh on investor sentiment. The divergence from narrative positivity suggests caution.2026-05-19 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TSM is likely to continue experiencing pressure as advanced node demand is overshadowed by escalating geopolitical tensions. Despite a strong narrative around cutting-edge technology, the price action has consistently lagged, indicating that these risks are heavily influencing ma2026-05-20 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TSM is likely to continue experiencing pressure due to geopolitical uncertainties overshadowing its strong advanced node demand. Despite a robust narrative, the persistent negative NDS and declining relative performance suggest that these risks are weighing heavily on market perc2026-05-21 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TSM's recent selloff confirming narrative suggests continued pressure due to geopolitical risks overshadowing strong advanced node demand. The persistent negative narrative dislocation score indicates that while demand remains robust, external risks are weighing heavily on invest2026-05-24 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TSM is likely to continue experiencing pressure from its narrative dislocation, as geopolitical risks and advanced node demand issues persist. The negative confirmation state suggests that the market is pricing in these concerns, with a persistent selloff over the past 17 days. G2026-05-25 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TSM is likely to continue facing pressure as geopolitical risks overshadow the solid demand for advanced nodes. The negative narrative dislocation score of -4.2 suggests that the market is prioritizing risk factors over the underlying demand story. The current selloff confirmatio2026-05-26 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.70 — TSM's narrative score remains strong, driven by robust demand for advanced nodes, but geopolitical risks continue to weigh on its performance. Despite the positive narrative dislocation score, the stock has been underperforming, suggesting a potential re-evaluation of risk premiu2026-05-28 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TSM is likely to continue facing downward pressure as the current price action confirms the negative narrative, despite strong demand for advanced node technology. Geopolitical risks are accentuating this pressure, leading to a narrative dislocation score of -3.4, indicating pric2026-05-29 · inflection_pending · conv 0.70 — TSM's recent state shift to 'DISAGREEMENT' suggests that its price is resisting the negative narrative tied to geopolitical risks and advanced node demand uncertainties. Given its relative performance above the broad tape, the stock may continue to hold steady if the advanced nod2026-05-31 · mixed_rotational · conv 0.60 — TSM's price resilience amid a negative narrative suggests a mixed trajectory over the next 1-2 months. The company's advanced node demand remains robust, but geopolitical risks could cause volatility. The current state of disagreement indicates that while the price is rejecting t2026-06-01 · bearish_continuation · conv 0.70 — TSM's current negative confirmation state suggests that despite strong narrative around advanced node demand, geopolitical risks are exerting significant downward pressure. This bearish trend is likely to persist over the next couple of months unless there's a significant de-esca
Each bar = one day’s forward expectation. Green = bullish, red = bearish, grey = neutral. Bar height = model conviction at parse time (not a calibrated probability).
2025-11-26FIRST
bearish cont.0.65
“In the next 1-2 months, TSM is likely to continue experiencing pricing pressure as strong narrative support fails to translate into price gains, similar to peers in the sector. Geopolitical risks may further exacerbate this pricing lag.”
2026-01-05
mixed rot.0.65
“As of this date, TSM's structural picture indicates a mixed outlook due to confirmed demand for advanced nodes but offset by geopolitical risks impacting sentiment. Expect fluctuations in price as market reactions to external factors continue.”
2026-02-11
bearish cont.0.70
“The next 1-2 months may see continued pressure on TSM's performance due to geopolitical risks affecting advanced node demand, with negative narrative dislocation scores indicating potential challenges ahead.”
2026-03-19
bullish cont.0.70
“The structural indicators suggest continued upward momentum in the near term, driven by strong advanced node demand despite geopolitical risks. Expect price stability and potential gains as the market digests this narrative.”
2026-04-27
bullish cont.0.75
“With a confirmed state and positive relative return, TSM appears well-positioned to maintain upward momentum in the near term, driven by strong demand for advanced nodes amidst geopolitical considerations.”
2026-06-01TODAY
bearish cont.0.70
“TSM's current negative confirmation state suggests that despite strong narrative around advanced node demand, geopolitical risks are exerting significant downward pressure. This bearish trend is likely to persist over the next couple of months unless there's a significant de-esca”
L3Expectation Lifecycle FieldBUILT V1

Each (actor, theme, direction-sign) is a persistent thesis tracked through typed lifecycle events: born / strengthened / weakened / contradicted / retired.

addsTurns TSM's daily expectation summaries into a memory system. Theses you can follow for weeks, not snapshots that vanish overnight.
today86 theses tracked over the window; 3 active today, 0 persistent (≥3 daily versions). Lifecycle events: born 86 · strengthened 0 · weakened 0 · contradicted 11 · retired 87.
TSM’s expectation theses24 theses shown · 86 total
↑CoreWeave earnings volatility and outlook
●○
─Insider confidence in growth stocks
●
↓AI-driven semiconductor investment outlook
●
↑AI data centers and energy dynamics
●✕○
↓Dell Technologies Growth and Challenges
●✕
↑Semiconductor market dynamics and trends
●✕○
↓Semiconductor market dynamics and trends
●○
─Semiconductor market dynamics and trends
●○
↓Corporate filings and disclosures
●✕
↓Surge in critical minerals investment
●○○
↓Micron Technology investment outlook
●○○
↓Middle East Conflict Impact on Markets
●✕○
─Middle East Conflict Impact on Markets
●○
↑Middle East Conflict Impact on Markets
●○
↑Oil price volatility impacts markets
●✕✕
↓Oil price volatility impacts markets
●✕○○
─Oil price volatility impacts markets
●○
↑Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
●✕○
↓Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
●
─Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
●○
↑AMD stock outlook and market dynamics
●○✕
↑Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
●○✕
↓Alphabet earnings and AI investments
●○
↓Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
●○
●born▲strengthened▼weakened✕contradicted○retired
2025-11-26FIRST
quiet
2026-01-05
●born
1 active thesis
2026-02-11
○retired
●born
2 active theses
2026-03-19
○retired
✕contradicted
●born
2 active theses
2026-04-27
●born
1 active thesis
2026-06-01TODAY
quiet
L4Performance FieldBUILT V1

Slices expectations into regions of (theme × direction) and asks, for each, whether forward returns relative to QQQ moved in the predicted direction. 5d / 10d / 20d horizons. Walk-forward — every observation uses only information available on its date.

addsCloses the loop. Realized outcomes calibrate which regions of the field actually pay.
todaySystem-wide: 65 public regions (73 limited, 343 insufficient) across 2,377 signed observations. All-expectations baseline runs 48% at 5d / 50% at 20d — close to chance overall, with edge concentrated in specific regions. 14 public regions are flagged inverted (corpus hit ≤ 30%); the operating layer reads them as contrarian. TSM appears in 17 public regions and 11 limited, including 4 inverted.
TSM appears in 65 signed regions · showing top 6 by n_obs
theme · directionsample5d hit20d hitactors
↓Earnings season insights and stock analysis
n=46
43% (-4pp)
76% (+27pp)
15
↓Market highs amid geopolitical tensions
n=27
56% (+8pp)
82% (+32pp)
13
↓Corporate filings and disclosures
n=25
52% (+4pp)
36% (-14pp)
14
↑Semiconductor market dynamics and investments
n=24
46% (-2pp)
38% (-12pp)
5
↓Micron Technology investment outlook
n=24
33% (-15pp)
29% (-20pp)
4
↓AMD stock outlook and market dynamics
n=21
38% (-10pp)
20% (-30pp)
10
Hit rate = share of forward returns that moved in the predicted direction relative to QQQ. Delta vs the all-expectations baseline (48% at 5d, 50% at 20d). Green ≥ +10pp · red ≤ −10pp. Tiers: n ≥ 10 public, n 5–9 limited (shown with caveat), n < 5 insufficient (hit rate suppressed). INV badge: region flagged inverted (corpus hit_5d ≤ 30% on public tier); operating layer reads the contrarian direction (strike-through glyph shows the original L2 read, second glyph shows the effective direction).
FEEDBACKL4 measurements close back to upstream layersVISION

F-007 V1 measures region performance. The feedback loop itself is still V2: realized outcomes do not yet re-weight upstream conviction, source trust, or lifecycle thresholds. The current state machine uses static rules. For TSM, this is where the system would learn that — for instance — its winter bullish run on AI-infrastructure narratives held, or that today’s bearish read deserves more / less weight than its conviction suggests.

L4→L2
Conviction calibration
Re-weight L2 conviction by horizon, theme, and direction based on realized outcomes.
L4→L1
Source / actor trust
Re-weight L1 inputs by historical predictive value of each source and actor.
L4→L3
Lifecycle thresholds
Tune L3 Δconviction cutoffs and retirement-window length to match realized outcome dynamics.
Status legend
BUILTBUILT / SHADOW VALIDATEDBUILT V1SCOPED / F-007VISION
BUILT — in production today. BUILT / SHADOW VALIDATED — computed daily, not yet promoted into the state machine. BUILT V1 — first cut shipped; V2 followups on roadmap. SCOPED / F-007 — spec written, not started. VISION — load-bearing later, no spec yet.
Rendered from public/actor_trace/TSM.json — a per-actor join of the L0 event corpus, L1 field instrumentation, L2 expectations history, and L3 lifecycle artifacts. Updates each evening pipeline run when build_actor_trace.py --all runs. For compute details: /methods. The same five-layer shape also powers the governance instance; on why this pattern recurs across domains, see a pattern for problems where beliefs must evolve.